Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Iormlund]

My ex was sent home today when a coworker tested positive. She's not under quarantine. She's not being tested (hasn't been contacted at all by health services). Her job involves frequent travel all over Spain.

We're so fucked.

She may not have had contact.  Simply working in the same building is not going to be a likely route of transmission.

The virus can linger for days on surfaces. Doors, vending machines, lunch/coffee rooms, restrooms. There's a not insignificant chance one of the 400 workers has it. Take enough chances every day, and that's how the bugger spreads. And, I repeat, we're a week away from healthcare collapse. We're not in a position to play the odds.

[viper37]

He's good on the economy, as an optimism booster, dealing with China, etc

I'd really love to meet your lsd supplier.

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51810673

BREAKING: Italy extends coronavirus measures nationwide

Italy is extending its strict coronavirus quarantine measures, which include a ban on public gatherings, to the entire country.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said the measures, which come into effect on Tuesday, were necessary to defend the most fragile members of the community.

He added that the best thing for the citizens of Italy was to stay at home.

Italy's coronavirus death toll jumped on Monday by 97 to 463. It is the worst-hit country after China.

Austrian paper reports freedom of movement has been suspended.

[Syt]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/trump-germaphobe-in-chief-struggles-to-control-the-covid-19-story

[...]

As Trump pushes a nothing-to-see-here message in public, sources said he's privately terrified about getting the virus. "Donald is a famous germaphobe. He hates it if someone is eating nachos and dips a chip back in after taking a bite. He calls them 'double dippers,'" a prominent Republican said. Former Trump aide Sam Nunberg recalled Trump's response to the last major outbreak in 2014. "When I worked for Trump, he was obsessed with Ebola," Nunberg told me. (One Mar-a-Lago guest disputed this and said Trump was handshaking with gusto this past weekend. "He was acting like the opposite of a germaphobe," the source said.)

Stories about Trump's coronavirus fears have spread through the White House. Last week Trump told aides he's afraid journalists will try to purposefully contract coronavirus to give it to him on Air Force One, a person close to the administration told me. The source also said Trump has asked the Secret Service to set up a screening program and bar anyone who has a cough from the White House grounds. "He's definitely melting down over this," the source said.

But thus far Trump's private concerns haven't affected his public response. Pressure from the public health community is mounting on Trump to cancel his mass rallies, but Trump is pushing back. "He is going to resist until the very last minute," a former West Wing official said. "He may take suggestions to stop shaking hands, but in terms of shutting stuff down, his position is: 'No, I'm not going to do it.'"

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

[Sheilbh]

Series A has been suspended

[Iormlund]

Austrian paper reports freedom of movement has been suspended.

It was the Swiss all along!

[crazy canuck]

We shall see.  There were thousands of passengers a week disembarking at the Vancouver airport from China up until just recently.  I suspect it is here but most people are not presenting for tests because for most (those who are healthy) the symptoms are going to be fairly minor - much like a cold.  The health authorities have now tested over 2000 people and have tracked down those who were in contact with those who have tested positive.  Very small percentages of those have tested positive.

Now the whole thing could mutate but right now, based on what we are seeing the main risk is to those whose health is compromised of which a large number are the elderly.

Well, let's look at this by the numbers.

With almost 20% of Vancouver, BC, being 65 and older, that's 125,000 people. Let's say that 25% of that population get the disease, of which 40% are likely to be severely ill (eg needs hospitalization with a ventilator) per the Italian numbers. That puts 50,000 65+ people in the hospital in Vancouver.

Per NCBI, there are only 8000 ventilator beds in hospitals across *all of Canada*. I'm going to guess that roughly a quarter of those are in or near Vancouver by stint of population counts. That's roughly 2000 ventilator beds in Vancouver for an estimate of 50,000 people.

https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/2017-05-04-city-of-vancouver-2016-census-age,-sex-and-type-of-dwelling-data-release.pdf
http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/documents/20182/1221364/Dati+Riepilogo+Nazionale+2marzo2020/f750bdea-4e89-4747-8d05-72ede9f40f05
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4426537/

One factor not being taken into consideration is that the BCCDC has been taking active steps since the outbreak in China to flatten out the curve so the whole of the population is not going to get it at once.  The other factor is that the population in Vancouver, and particularly the older affluent folks who became millionaires when property values went through the roof, tend to be in much better health and more fit than their cohort in other cities.

[crazy canuck]

My ex was sent home today when a coworker tested positive. She's not under quarantine. She's not being tested (hasn't been contacted at all by health services). Her job involves frequent travel all over Spain.

We're so fucked.

She may not have had contact.  Simply working in the same building is not going to be a likely route of transmission.

The virus can linger for days on surfaces. Doors, vending machines, lunch/coffee rooms, restrooms. There's a not insignificant chance one of the 400 workers has it. Take enough chances every day, and that's how the bugger spreads. And, I repeat, we're a week away from healthcare collapse. We're not in a position to play the odds.

Actually no.  The virus cannot live on its own for more than a couple of hours.

This is one of the myths that is driving the hysteria.

And even if one were to contact a contaminated surface - washing hands with soap and water while not touching your face will do the trick. 

edited so as not to offend soup lovers

[merithyn]

Actually no.  The virus cannot live on its own for more than a couple of hours.

This is one of the myths that is driving the hysteria.

And even if one were to contact a contaminated surface - washing hands with soap and water while not touching your face will do the trick. 

edited so as not to offend soup lovers

Yeah, this one is driving me crazy. It's a virus, so it's really not very hardy outside of the body. Not that a couple of hours isn't a long time, but it's not 24 hours or anything.

[Maximus]

NASA Ames is on mandatory telework after an employee tested positive.

[mongers]

Actually no.  The virus cannot live on its own for more than a couple of hours.

This is one of the myths that is driving the hysteria.

And even if one were to contact a contaminated surface - washing hands with soap and water while not touching your face will do the trick. 

edited so as not to offend soup lovers

Yeah, this one is driving me crazy. It's a virus, so it's really not very hardy outside of the body. Not that a couple of hours isn't a long time, but it's not 24 hours or anything.

And yet on yesterday's news an expert was saying it's not nailed down yet, she has seen suggestions for persistence for a few hours (she said 9 hours) up to 14 days.

[Legbiter]

Series A has been suspended

I see Israel just announced 2 week quarantine for anyone travelling to the country.

[Legbiter]

And yet on yesterday's news an expert was saying it's not nailed down yet, she has seen suggestions for persistence for a few hours (she said 9 hours) up to 14 days.

It's a coronavirus with a lipid layer. Which means soap kills it easy but it can linger for up to days, depending on surface, temperature, etc, if it's anything like it's other viral cousins. Working assumption here is that it will linger.

[mongers]

And yet on yesterday's news an expert was saying it's not nailed down yet, she has seen suggestions for persistence for a few hours (she said 9 hours) up to 14 days.

It's a coronavirus with a lipid layer. Which means soap kills it easy but it can linger for up to days, depending on surface, temperature, etc, if it's anything like it's other viral cousins. Working assumption here is that it will linger.

Yes, hence I guess why the Chinese, Koreans and Iranians have been disinfecting whole streets; it may do some good and help stop people walking it into indoor surfaces.

[PDH]

NASA Ames is on mandatory telework after an employee tested positive.

Oh no, we moved things from there 3 years ago when UCSC had researchers there - can I get the disease from that?