Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Agreed - as I say I feel like we should be moving faster and doing more. I think it's outrageous the number of Premier League games went on over the weekend - and they hadn't taken the minimum step of advising 70+ people not to come. It strikes me as possibly negligent.

Meanwhile in America, the President is tweeting

So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

[Richard Hakluyt]

His great brain laughs in the face of exponential functions 

Johnson and crew had their COBRA meeting this morning; in my opinion he will tend to take a chance rather than opt for the safer option, it is at the root of his personality to be like that.

[Tamas]

His great brain laughs in the face of exponential functions 

Johnson and crew had their COBRA meeting this morning; in my opinion he will tend to take a chance rather than opt for the safer option, it is at the root of his personality to be like that.

Plus it's not like over 60s contribute to the economy that much.

[Tamas]

His great brain laughs in the face of exponential functions 

Johnson and crew had their COBRA meeting this morning; in my opinion he will tend to take a chance rather than opt for the safer option, it is at the root of his personality to be like that.

Also you can't play Churchill and save the nation if you don't let the crisis develop.

[Richard Hakluyt]

His great brain laughs in the face of exponential functions 

Johnson and crew had their COBRA meeting this morning; in my opinion he will tend to take a chance rather than opt for the safer option, it is at the root of his personality to be like that.

Plus it's not like over 60s contribute to the economy that much.

Especially the man himself 

[Sheilbh]

Johnson and crew had their COBRA meeting this morning; in my opinion he will tend to take a chance rather than opt for the safer option, it is at the root of his personality to be like that.

As I say, he has previously said his political hero is the mayor in Jaws who keeps the beach open

It'd be interesting to know who is in the meeting - what's the decision-making group - I mean I assume the PM, Health Secretary, but I wonder who else. For example this strikes me as one of those issues you need to keep the Chancellor/Treasury as far away from the decision-making as possible

[Sheilbh]

His great brain laughs in the face of exponential functions 

One other thing on this - I remember in the Iran thread saying I thought we'd been lucky not to have a crisis during Trump's term. And now we do. And he's living down to expectations, which is slightly terrifying.

[Richard Hakluyt]

A semi-permanent lockdown, over some years I mean, would presumably have devastating economic and cultural consequences. At the same time complete elimination of the virus from the human population appears to be almost impossible, given that it spreads so easily. Perhaps the flattened curve epidemic is the best option in the long run.

[Josephus]

Trump does have a point though....we don't seem to go into full lock down every year when flu breaks out. Is this THAT much worse?

[Richard Hakluyt]

The death rate might be as high as 3.4% of those infected. Lets say 60% of Americans get it in the next 18 months; then we have 0.6*0.034*331m = 6.75m. It could easily be worse or better.

[Sheilbh]

The death rate might be as high as 3.4% of those infected. Lets say 60% of Americans get it in the next 18 months; then we have 0.6*0.034*331m = 6.75m. It could easily be worse or better.

And it seems to vary widely by age group:

[fromtia]

Trump does have a point though....we don't seem to go into full lock down every year when flu breaks out. Is this THAT much worse?

Trumplestiltskin doesnt understand whats happening, unsurprisingly. On one level hes correct, no one freaks out about flu deaths every year and hurts a sitting presidents election chances. But if one does some arithmetic , albeit based on fluctuating data, even the best case scenarios for the US seem to suggest that there may be a lot more deaths than a regular flu season. It may also be far worse.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, heavy casualties among the already vulnerable.

[Legbiter]

One other thing on this - I remember in the Iran thread saying I thought we'd been lucky not to have a crisis during Trump's term. And now we do. And he's living down to expectations, which is slightly terrifying.

Our PM is a Left-Green with a heavy nationalist bent, she's ideal in this instance.

Trump's not really suited to this sort of thing. He's good on the economy, as an optimism booster, dealing with China, etc but on this... He only has one mode, a sort of real estate boosterism which is fine I guess except for when you want reassurance during a pandemic. Just keeping Pence on this is probably smart.

And in other news, there's just a small trickle of confirmed cases, all recent travellers and their families, good news is no one has been hospitalized yet. 

[celedhring]

The death rate might be as high as 3.4% of those infected. Lets say 60% of Americans get it in the next 18 months; then we have 0.6*0.034*331m = 6.75m. It could easily be worse or better.

Yeah, the danger here is the virus spreading to a much larger % of population than regular flu and overwhelming health care services. Mortality rate in the most intensely affected areas of Italy is already a pretty worrying 6.5% or whereabouts.

Even with seasonal mutations, we all have a degree of immunity to flu, plus we have vaccines, so the danger is much smaller than with a novel virus like this one.