Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Iormlund]

SARS however had a death rate of 9.6% - Covid-19 appears to be under 1%.

That's what makes it so dangerous though.

SARS or MERS were readily identified because of their virulence. This one lies undetected and spreading for weeks. By the time you see it the only way to stop it is to essentially quarantine the entire country.

[PRC]

Covid-19 has a death rate around 3.4%.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Legbiter]

Covid-19 has a death rate around 3.4%.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

My fond hope is that that number is a statistical artifact because of serious undersampling of mild cases.

[PDH]

Covid-19 has a death rate around 3.4%.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Covid-19 has a death rate of 3.4% for reported case.  If, as seems likely from the way it spreads, a significant percentage of people who get it have either very mild symptoms or none at all this number might be quite a bit lower.  As one epidemiologist said (paraphrase), this is why give death rates in an fluid and changing situation is not going to be accurate.

[FunkMonk]

Well, we're all going to die. Someday.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Covid-19 has a death rate around 3.4%.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

My fond hope is that that number is a statistical artifact because of serious undersampling of mild cases.

My hypothesis is that the death rate will be much lower due to the large (80%) of mild cases. The mild cases make it easy to spread, but 0.2*3,4% gives c.0.7% death rate, with 60% global infection rate that would still be 28 million deaths. Bad, but much better than >100m deaths.

[Iormlund]

Covid-19 has a death rate around 3.4%.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

That's a pretty big oversimplification. Many other factors have to be taken into account:

• Mild/asymptomatic cases (lower effective rate than calculated).
• Deaths which took place before testing was possible (deadlier than calculated).
• Was the health system overwhelmed or not?
• Lag. Due to the rapid growth many cases are not yet resolved (which will drive numbers up eventually).
• Strain. It has already mutated several times. Some are bound to be deadlier than others.

The "normal" rate seems to be around 1%. But that's assuming all patients can be adequately treated.

[merithyn]

Given that the US is clearly the worst of the countries with their calculations on this, what is the death rate without us in it?

[Sheilbh]

Given that the US is clearly the worst of the countries with their calculations on this, what is the death rate without us in it?

For what it's worth the UK Chief Medical Oficer said he thinks with a "reasonably high degree of confidence" that it's 1% or below.

[The Minsky Moment]

That's good in the sense that it's less deadly then it would appear.  But horrifying in the sense that it implies there are far more cases out there.  With ten deaths in the US, it implies we have over a 1000 cases as opposed to the 200 confirmed.

[Iormlund]

That's good in the sense that it's less deadly then it would appear.  But horrifying in the sense that it implies there are far more cases out there.  With ten deaths in the US, it implies we have over a 1000 cases as opposed to the 200 confirmed.

That's probably correct. Korea has been testing extensively and their mortality rate is well below 1%. Probably around that point once you take out recent, ongoing cases.

[Tamas]

I have noticed two or three colleagues near me with an usual strong coarse cough the last couple of days. Doesn't sound like the usual cold.

[Iormlund]

Do they have a runny nose? About 95% of COVID cases do not.

[Pedrito]

Ok, a lot of cases here, and a lot of deaths; the average age of CoViD-19 deaths is 81 years old, many of them with preexisting pathologies.
I suppose the high number of deaths is linked to the high average age of italian population, but it does not explain the low numbers in Japan, that is the only nation with an average age older than Italy.

My mom has consumed all her (completely useless) surgical masks, because she stains them with lipstick ( ): I think she's recovering pretty well, but she wants more masks, and right now they sell at the same price of printer ink - no masks for her, maybe we can scrap something from Venice carnival's leftovers.

A friend invited me and family for a BBQ at his country house, that's just near the roadblock of the Red Zone ("near" means he sees the roadblock at the end of the road from his living room): ribs, or no ribs for us on sunday?

The really worrying situation is commerce: with schools and universities closed until march 15th (three weeks of unexpected vacation, the boys are exhilarated), and the strong suggestion of not going out of home for many at risk categories, the already agonizing economy of Italy is reaching a grinding halt; the government has promised a tax reduction, help for families in getting child support, and other measures, but I fear it will be a small patch over an immense hole. Already many small businesses are having difficulties, and I don't even want to talk about the many, many chinese shops, that are already closed and who knows when they'll reopen.

L.

[crazy canuck]

I have noticed two or three colleagues near me with an usual strong coarse cough the last couple of days. Doesn't sound like the usual cold.

You need to normalize your sample group.