Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[garbon]

Public data on the number of patients tested in the US for coronavirus was removed from the website of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), according to a congressman, who has written to ask questions about it.

Mark Pocan, a Democratic party congressman, writes that until 1 March, the CDC reported publicly on its website on the number of travel-related Covid-19 cases, the total number of people tested and the number of deaths.

"Inexplicably, today, the CDC's public webpage dedicated to Covid-19 data no longer displays how many persons have been tested for, or who have died, from Covid-19. I would like to know why," he writes.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/03/coronavirus-live-updates-china-latest-news-us-australia-deaths-markets-italy-iran-update-cases-italy-south-korea-japan?page=with:block-5e5e16548f08e1332474e306#block-5e5e16548f08e1332474e306

[Tamas]

Maybe the needs of public health have been measured up against the need to make Trump look good, and have been found lacking.

[Sheilbh]

One thought on this is if the virus has an impact on the election - or the type of campaigning you can do. Several countries have restricted meetings of 5,000+ people, so during an election campaign I could see public health advice being against big rallies of the type Trump loves.

I even wonder about what impact it would have on the conventions

[Sheilbh]

UK action plan:

UK coronavirus plans would strip police and fire services to essentials
Government's action plan sets out steps to be taken to combat spread of Covid-19
Kate Proctor Political correspondent
Tue 3 Mar 2020 11.23 GMT
First published on Tue 3 Mar 2020 10.31 GMT

Police and fire services will only respond to the most serious call-outs if their staff fall ill through coronavirus, the government warned on Tuesday, in a key planning document setting out how ministers would deal with an escalating outbreak.

The action plan envisages that the army could be called in to help if requested by civilian authorities. And it says that up to a fifth of the national workforce could be absent from work, schools could close and elderly people would be advised not to attend social gatherings.

The measures would only be rolled out if the virus moved beyond the currently designated "contain" phase.

Speaking from Downing Street, Boris Johnson stressed: "The plan does not set out what the government will do; it sets out the things we could do at the right time and on the basis of scientific advice."

The advice was released in the Coronavirus: Action Plan on Tuesday as the number of cases in the UK stood at 39.

It sets out plans for scenarios ranging from a milder pandemic to a "severe prolonged pandemic as experienced in 1918" when the Spanish Flu killed 50 million worldwide.

If the illness moves into the "delay" and "mitigate" phases in the UK, retired NHS staff could be brought back to help care for patients, the document says.

"With a significant loss of officers and staff, the police would concentrate on responding to serious crimes and maintaining public order," it said.
• There could be an increase in deaths arising from the outbreak, particularly among vulnerable and elderly people. The government will "ensure dignified treatment of all affected, including those who die", it says, and that local authorities will need help to deal with the rise in deaths.
• Businesses facing short-term cashflow because of low demand from customers could ask HMRC how to avoid falling behind with tax.
• If NHS staff numbers are affected, some non-urgent care may be delayed and retired healthcare professionals brought back on duty.
• Anyone who shows symptoms should consider options ranging from avoiding contact outside work and school to "social distancing", household quarantine, and working from home.
• Widespread exposure in the UK may be inevitable – but "slowing it down would still nonetheless be beneficial", partly because GP surgeries and hospitals will be less busy in the summer months outside of peak flu season.

At a press conference, the prime minister said it was "highly likely" the number of cases in the UK would rise but that "for the vast majority of people in this country we should be going about our business as usual".

"I fully understand public concern, your concern, about the global spread of the virus ... Keeping the country safe is the government's overriding priority."

Johnson said it was "too early to say" how many people would contract Covid-19. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, said he was reasonably confident "probably around 1% of people who contracted the virus might end up dying, based on the Chinese experience". However, he said, it could be lower than that because there was no way to tell how many people had the illness but no symptoms.

He said the proportion of the total population who might contract coronavirus would not pass 80% but it would probably be a "lot lower than that".

Asked about gig economy workers who might have to quarantine themselves with no statutory sick pay, Johnson did not announce an extension of sick pay to all, but said: "We're going to keep all options under review but we're well aware of the issue."

He insisted the NHS was "well capable of handling the most tremendous pressures" but that if the situation worsened it would be important for everybody to think about how to reduce the burden on the health service, such as avoiding using GPs.

Asked which operations and treatments could be cancelled, Whitty said the aim was to push the peak of infections to the late spring or summer under the government's "delay" strategy. He said the peak was likely to last a number of weeks, during which time the government would postpone treatment for the least urgent conditions.

He said it was important for older and vulnerable people to "isolate from the virus but not from society". Whitty said the government was keen not to take stringent measures too early, such as banning visitors from care homes, as there would be a social cost when it was not yet necessary.

Asked about the possibility of a morgue being set up in Hyde Park, Johnson said there were long-established local resilience plans to deal with a pandemic.

The health secretary, Matt Hancock, has been in talks with social media companies about trying to ensure public health messages are spread widely.

Despite earlier suggestions that cities could be put on lockdown to try to contain the illness, experts are now suggesting that would have little effect.

Government advice remains that the action everyone should be taking is to regularly wash their hands for 20 seconds and cover the mouth with a disposable tissue when sneezing or coughing.

The document was published after Hancock urged members of the public to carry on as normal "for now".

He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme earlier: "The message today is that, right now, we do not need to do many of the heavy things we are talking about in the plan. But we are also setting [them] out as transparently as we possibly can so people know the sort of things we might have to do in future."

The thing about the temporary morgue in Hyde Park is true - I understand that's been in pandemic planning for London for years, but it does really make it sound terrifying

[Josquius]

Odd, the thing everyone seems to be saying is corona somewhat stands out because it doesn't carry the usual sneezing and runny nose symptoms.

[Syt]

[Maladict]

That Gaetz guy is a riot.

[Sheilbh]

Odd, the thing everyone seems to be saying is corona somewhat stands out because it doesn't carry the usual sneezing and runny nose symptoms.

Isn't that how it's transmitted though? So if you cough or sneeze do it into a tissue and bin it?

[Tamas]

Odd, the thing everyone seems to be saying is corona somewhat stands out because it doesn't carry the usual sneezing and runny nose symptoms.

Isn't that how it's transmitted though? So if you cough or sneeze do it into a tissue and bin it?

Yeah I skeptical it could spread this fast if people were not spraying its droplets all over the place.

[Tamas]

From Harvard's site:

Some people infected with the virus have no symptoms. When the virus does cause symptoms, common ones include low grade fever, body aches, coughing, nasal congestion, runny nose, and sore throat. However, COVID-19 can occasionally cause more severe symptoms like high fever, severe cough and shortness of breath, which often indicates pneumonia.

[Legbiter]

As it stands there are 11 confirmed cases here. 10 can be traced directly to Italy and one to Austria.

[Tamas]

I am curious to see today's increase in the UK, if there's any. Staying around 40 would not be too bad for a country of 60 million I'd think.

[Sheilbh]

I find this interesting on dealing with misinformation on social media. I've noticed a lot of it seems to be well intentioned, with people going "there's too much bad advice about Coronavirus being put out there by people who don't know what they're talking about, BUCKLE UP FOR SCIENCE-BASED FACT TIME" and then getting everything wrong

Battling coronavirus misinformation in the age of social media
Myths and falsehoods spreading quicker than officials can provide updates
Jim Waterson and Dan Sabbagh
Tue 3 Mar 2020 09.00 GMT
Last modified on Tue 3 Mar 2020 10.17 GMT

Public health professionals trying to provide the nation with facts about the spread of coronavirus are battling a wave of misinformation, as they wrestle with the first major British health crisis of the smartphone era.

Officials are providing regular updates to the media on the spread of the infection, but at the same time half-truths about the best way to treat the illness are already going viral on WhatsApp and other messaging services.

Some are suggesting dubious herbal remedies, while one viral message – which claims to be advice from an uncle who is a Chinese doctor – mixes standard best practice with unverified claims about how best to kill the germs.

While the inherently private nature of WhatsApp makes it hard to track the spread of such material or judge how many people are reading it, some of the posts seen by the Guardian use the standard language of internet chain letters and urge people to forward the advice to friends and family – circumventing the official health communications in the same manner that has allowed anti-vaccination movements to flourish online.

Prof David Harper, a former chief scientist at the Department of Health, said the UK's established communications strategy for a public health crisis is to have a trusted medical figure rather than a politician deliver regular updates to the public.

He said this approach worked well during the 2009 influenza pandemic: "It was decided early on that the designated person would be very visible even if there was very little to say. If no one is saying anything then it becomes a cause of concern. It's much better to be visible and be seen by the public, even if it's just to repeat what's been said or say there's not been much change."

Harper, now a fellow at Chatham House, said there is some risk that people become "desensitised" if they are provided with too much information on how many people have been infected without sufficient context, but that transparency improved public trust.

A decade on this approach is being challenged by the radically changed media environment. Major social networks, aware of past criticism of their role in spreading untruths and hysteria over health issues, have moved to get ahead of the problem and are actively engaging with the UK government to provide information.

Both Facebook and Twitter are promoting official NHS guidance, providing links to NHS advice in users' feeds and when they search for coronavirus-related terms. Google, often the first port of call for health advice, is promoting official advice.

The BBC, having spent recent months being attacked and stonewalled by the government, is emphasising its role in disseminating accurate, timely information about public health issues, with a spokesperson pushing the fact its coverage reaches millions of Britons with official guidance.

"We know the public turns to the BBC at times like this," said a spokesperson, pointing out that nine of the corporation's 10 most-read stories online during the past week were about the virus. Also highlighted was the decision to make a special public information programme on the outbreak on Monday night.

For a government that has put great weight on bypassing traditional media outlets, the outbreak has forced it to reconsider its relationship with the broadcaster. On Saturday a government minister was heard giving an interview on Radio 4's Today programme for the first time since the general election, breaking a No 10-imposed boycott to deliver an update to the programmes's millions of listeners. And on Tuesday health secretary Matt Hancock appeared on the same programme ahead of the publication of the government's so-called 'battleplan' to combat the spread of the virus.

Lord Kerslake, a former head of the civil service, said he still believed the government's communications efforts were insufficient, and had been damaged by political boycotts of Today and ITV's Good Morning Britain. "You are reliant on communications in these situations, and need every media outlet necessary. You certainly shouldn't be boycotting programmes, frankly that's pretty feeble," he said.

Kerslake added that not enough ministers had appeared in the media to support Hancock, who has been leading communications efforts on coronavirus almost single-handedly in the past few days. "No criticism of Hancock, but if I was him, I'd want a bit more back-up."

Harper, the former Whitehall official, accepted that Boris Johnson's decision to call a meeting of the emergency planning committee Cobra may be partly for media consumption. But he said it also helps reassure the public about the seriousness of the issue: "In this case, the prime minister is seen to be in control. It is important that the machinery and the accountability for taking the decisions are seen. We have to be careful not to be too hung up on who's doing what at what point."

Additional reporting by Elle Hunt.

Interesting to see if the promoted factual information and traditional media using all channels will be enough. It is fair, the BBC's point, that that's where I'd go if I wanted news on something like this

[Tamas]

It is fair, the BBC's point, that that's where I'd go if I wanted news on something like this

Too bad they were mean to Johnson, so now their funding needs to be cut.

[Sheilbh]

It is fair, the BBC's point, that that's where I'd go if I wanted news on something like this

Too bad they were mean to Johnson, so now their funding needs to be cut.

Name a Tory PM who hasn't want to cut the BBC or end the licence fee? I mean, maybe Sir Alec Douglas-Home was indifferent?

I'm still furious at Cameron who moved responsibility for funding the World Service from the Foreign Office to the BBC (who then decided to cut back on the number of languages it offers) and, I think, made the BBC bear the cost of free TV Licences for the elderly.

I don't dispute that Boris Johnson is bad, but we should split out what makes him specifically bad and what's just general Toryness