Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[DGuller]

Well, shit, it looked hopeful for a while, but it seems like China's efforts were just not good enough.

[celedhring]

Has Madagascar shut down the harbors yet?

[Pedrito]

With the new cases sprouting in Italy it's probably going to be all over Europe soon.

Italy is the european champion right now!

And the first death occurred in a town not 30 kms from my hometown 

L.

[Legbiter]

It's popping up in Milan as well I see. Christ this is bad.

[Tonitrus]

The normal 2017-2018 flu season killed 61,000 in just the US...an average of 5,000-ish/month.  Worldwide figures are 250-650,000/year.  We're a couple months into this with under 2,500.

I'm not impressed yet.

[viper37]

The normal 2017-2018 flu season killed 61,000 in just the US...an average of 5,000-ish/month.  Worldwide figures are 250-650,000/year.  We're a couple months into this with under 2,500.

I'm not impressed yet.

the problem is not the death toll, it's the number of infected people.  Lots of people getting critically ill means lot of people in the ER means less room for other health problem.  In China, people who are not affected by the coronavirus are sent back home because in some places the ER can't deal with any more patients.

And that is one of the problems we will suffer.

The other will be economic paralysis: lots of people sick, from this virus or something else, unable to get healthcare and unable to come to work.

If things get bad.  They aren't yet, but they could be, and every country should be prepared.

[Legbiter]

No country can possibly prepare sufficiently for a full-scale epidemic of this kind of disease. My town for instance has what, 15 ICU beds and it's often a tightrope to just be ready for a regular Monday.

[mongers]

China reports fewer coronavirus cases outside epicenter, cases surge in South Korea

SHANGHAI/SEOUL (Reuters) - China reported another fall in the new coronavirus infections outside of its epicenter on Sunday, but world health officials warned it was too early to make predictions about the outbreak as new infections and fears of contagion increased elsewhere.

China's health commission confirmed 648 new infections on Sunday - higher than a day earlier - but only 18 were outside of Hubei province, the lowest number outside of the epicenter since authorities started publishing data a month ago.

But new infections outside of China continued to worry world health authorities, with South Korea on Sunday reporting a fourth death due to the virus and 123 new cases, bringing its total to 556, having doubled from Friday to Saturday.

Cases in Italy, Europe's worst hit country, more than quadrupled to 79 on Saturday, with two deaths. Ten new cases in Iran took the total to 29 there, and six deaths, deepening unease at home and in neighboring countries in the Gulf.

......

Full article here:

http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/Reuters/worldNews/~3/v510mvgev5c/china-reports-fewer-coronavirus-cases-outside-epicenter-cases-surge-in-south-korea-idUSKCN20H03U

[Legbiter]

Maybe Chinese statistics are accurate. Maybe. Or they're desperate to reopen closed factories before they go bankrupt. This is beginning to seriously affect global supply chains. My dad's business for instance has a German supplier but his supplier is Chinese so this will bite in a couple of months. I can't even imagine what it's like for complex electronics or cars. If your product requires 500 components and one is made in China you're boned.

[Eddie Teach]

If your product requires 500 parts, at least 100 are being made in China, let's not kid ourselves. 

[Iormlund]

Maybe Chinese statistics are accurate. Maybe. Or they're desperate to reopen closed factories before they go bankrupt. This is beginning to seriously affect global supply chains. My dad's business for instance has a German supplier but his supplier is Chinese so this will bite in a couple of months. I can't even imagine what it's like for complex electronics or cars. If your product requires 500 components and one is made in China you're boned.

A lot of car parts are made relatively close to the factories to save on logistic costs. However smaller, lighter components could turn to be a problem.

Also, most of the world's rare earth extraction takes place in China. If that is affected electronics could take a big hit.

[Zanza]

Maybe Chinese statistics are accurate. Maybe. Or they're desperate to reopen closed factories before they go bankrupt. This is beginning to seriously affect global supply chains. My dad's business for instance has a German supplier but his supplier is Chinese so this will bite in a couple of months. I can't even imagine what it's like for complex electronics or cars. If your product requires 500 components and one is made in China you're boned.

Complex supply chains will be disrupted in the next weeks. It's already starting with electronics and car plants shutting down. Automotive companies may know their second or even third tier suppliers, but if it is a crucial part, one supplier not delivering is enough. I expect major shutdowns soon.

[Legbiter]

Lombardy is getting increasingly shut down. That's a big industrial hub right there. Then in a week or so you could start getting clusters of infected people popping up in Germany, France, etc. Man, will the next 2 months suck.

[Admiral Yi]

I think what we need is a phone app that stores the result of a virus test.  Whenever you come in contact with anyone else, you touch phones.  If you've both been tested and you're both clean, no change.  If the other person has not been tested, then now you too are no longer clean, and can no longer come in phone contact distance with others until you have been retested.

Sort of like Icelandic cousin fucking apps or HIV testing in the porn industry.

[PDH]

it would be hacked on day one and lead to a +50% spread of the black plague.