Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Legbiter]

Taiwanese taxi driver just died as well. It seems to be spreading on it's own in several countries now. Japan, Singapore, Vietnam and Taiwan at the very least. One case popped up in Egypt as well. One bright spot is that children don't seem to be as susceptible. The biggest co-morbid risk factors are hypertension and diabetes.

[Admiral Yi]

I've got a runny nose. 

[Eddie Teach]

I've had runny nose, sore throat, cough and fever this weekend. I think the fever has broken though.

[DGuller]

Languish is dying. 

[Monoriu]

I think one of the distinctive features of the virus is that it doesn't cause a runny nose. 

[DGuller]

I think one of the distinctive features of the virus is that it doesn't cause a runny nose.

Oh, shit, I don't have a runny nose. 

[Monoriu]

Taiwanese taxi driver just died as well. It seems to be spreading on it's own in several countries now. Japan, Singapore, Vietnam and Taiwan at the very least. One case popped up in Egypt as well. One bright spot is that children don't seem to be as susceptible. The biggest co-morbid risk factors are hypertension and diabetes.

This virus seems to disproportionately affect the old.  Young people are still susceptible, but the majority of the cases and deaths are old people. 

[mongers]

Latest update from China, Monday:

China's Hubei province, the epicenter of the coronavirus epidemic, reported 1,933 new cases and 100 new deaths on Feb. 16, the local health authority said on Monday.

Interesting that more emphasis is being placed on the figures from Hubei, seems like the figures for other Chinese provinces remain relatively low in comparison.

[Admiral Yi]

I think one of the distinctive features of the virus is that it doesn't cause a runny nose.

Oh, shit, I don't have a runny nose. 

Mine stopped running a bit ago.

[Legbiter]

Interesting that more emphasis is being placed on the figures from Hubei, seems like the figures for other Chinese provinces remain relatively low in comparison.

The concern is how well does bad news trickle up to the decision makers at the top in the CCP hierarchy?

[dps]

I think one of the distinctive features of the virus is that it doesn't cause a runny nose.

Oh, shit, I don't have a runny nose. 

Mine stopped running a bit ago.

Ooh, that's a bad sign.  According to Dr. Mono, the end is near for you.

[Legbiter]

The Chinese version of the CDC has a large epidemiological study out.

Results: A total of 72,314 patient records—44,672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16,186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10,567 (14.6%) clinically diagnosed cases (Hubei Province only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)—contributed data for the analysis. Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30–79 years (86.6%), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7%), and considered mild (80.9%). A total of 1,023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. The COVID-19 spread outward from Hubei Province sometime after December 2019, and by February 11, 2020, 1,386 counties across all 31 provinces were affected. The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked around January 23–26, then began to decline leading up to February 11. A total of 1,716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3%).

Conclusion: COVID-19 epidemic has spread very quickly taking only 30 days to expand from Hubei to the rest of Mainland China. With many people returning from a long holiday, China needs to prepare for the possible rebound of the epidemic.

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

The good news is that cases among children under the age of ten are very few. The very bad news are how highly contagious it is, it's long incubation period and the massive numbers of people with severe and critical symptoms. A death rate of 2.3% is misleading, it could potentially be much higher if the health care system is just overwhelmed. Interesting to note that men are likelier to die than women but no sex differences in rates of infection. Asymptomatic carriers were found as well.

[Monoriu]

I think the death rate increases dramatically with age and pre-existing conditions.  80+ year olds have death rates like 15%.  A patient is far more likely to die if he had diabetes or heart disease. 

I am also somewhat disturbed by reports that many patients require kidney care?  The virus attacks kidneys or something?

[Legbiter]

Yeah, kidney failure.

Quite a few new cases in Japan, South Korea, Singapore and 2 dead from coronavirus in Iran all of a sudden.

[Legbiter]

New cases in SK. It's escaped China.