Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[jimmy olsen]

That seems a bad ratio of serious to total cases.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/25/coronavirus-china-death-tolls-rises-to-41-as-france-confirms-three-cases
Death toll rises to 41. The total cases of coronavirus rises to 1,287 including 237 patients in serious condition.

Australia confirmed a man in his 50s tested positive for coronavirus on Saturday after returning to Melbourne from Wuhan.
Malaysia has confirmed 3 cases of the virus
In France, three people have fallen ill with the virus – the disease's first appearance in Europe
The United States reported its second case, involving a Chicago woman in her 60s who was hospitalised in isolation after returning from China
Two cases confirmed in Vietnam
Three cases in Singapore
As of Friday night, five people had been diagnosed with the virus in Hong Kong, according to the South China Morning Post
On Friday South Korea's government confirmed the second case of a coronavirus that originated in China, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said.
Japan – a destination for many lunar new year holiday makers – has confirmed 2 cases
Thailand's public health ministry has confirmed five cases.
Nepal has one infection
Taiwan has reported three cases and Macao two

[jimmy olsen]

Of the first 41 patients, 100% developed pneumonia, and despite all being hospitalized 15% of them died

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

[Eddie Teach]

I don't suppose the pneumonia shot I took last week would have any effect.

[Zoupa]

Of the first 41 patients, 100% developed pneumonia, and despite all being hospitalized 15% of them died

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

Alright, now that's actually really bad.

[DGuller]

I'm starting to get a little concerned.  I know we've had false alarms before, but even with Russian Roulette you'll have false alarm five times out of six, that doesn't make it a mistake in hindsight to have been concerned.

[mongers]

Of the first 41 patients, 100% developed pneumonia, and despite all being hospitalized 15% of them died

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

Tim please stop flip-floping about this, just up the thread you said:

I know it's too early to calculate a realistic death rate for this virus, but not to go all Timmay on it but:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51230011

On Friday, Chinese authorities said the death toll had risen to 25, with 830 confirmed cases.

Of the confirmed cases, 177 were in a serious condition and 34 have been "cured and discharged", the National Health Commission said. There are also 1,072 suspected cases, it added.

I'm guessing this is sloppy or poor numeracy from journalist, but that suggests of the 855 confirmed cases, 25 have died, 177 could go either way and only 34 have recovered so far?

But also 619 have it but it's not serious yet or at all?

That would seem a normal distribution from a bad flu. Most people aren't going to be seriously ill.

We need you to be at a constant pitch for your taint to work, like it thankfully did in your Ebola thread.

[alfred russel]

Three confirmed cases in France, two in Paris one in Bordeaux; I think unconnected, one of them hospitalised.

No news of any confirmed UK cases.

With the withdrawing of the UK from the EU (and greater world stage), Boris Johnson has kept the UK protected from foreign viruses.

[mongers]

Three confirmed cases in France, two in Paris one in Bordeaux; I think unconnected, one of them hospitalised.

No news of any confirmed UK cases.

With the withdrawing of the UK from the EU (and greater world stage), Boris Johnson has kept the UK protected from foreign viruses.

Yes he's shown astonishing foresight; it's what's kept him clear of venereal diseases for so long. 

[jimmy olsen]

Only 49 cured... looks like this is a long lasting sickness, which is bad even if it doesn't kill because this is going to put a hell of a strain on medical services.

Death toll up to 56. Nearly two thousand confirmed cases.
https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1221236638325436417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1221236638325436417&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fscience%2Flive%2F2020%2Fjan%2F26%2Fcoronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-rises-to-54-as-canada-confirms-first-case

Seven of the deaths in the last day have been outside of Heibi province.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-rises-to-54-as-canada-confirms-first-case

[Eddie Teach]

Is it time to panic yet?

[Valmy]

Is it time to panic yet?

Well past time. I am already on the way to a survivalist compound in Idaho.

[Eddie Teach]

Well, I hope they have WiFi there.

[jimmy olsen]

Is it time to panic yet?

https://twitter.com/Rover829/status/1221245939903553536

LONDON (Reuters) - Each person infected with coronavirus is passing the disease on to between two and three other people on average at current transmission rates, according to two separate scientific analyses of the epidemic.

Reuters: "It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China," said Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease specialist at Imperial College London who co-led one of the studies.

Reuters: A second study by researchers at Britain's Lancaster University ...estimated that the central Chinese city of Wuhan where the outbreak began in December will alone have around 190,000 cases of infection by Feb. 4.

[mongers]

Reuters reporting:

Canada on Saturday declared the first "presumptive" confirmed case of the deadly coronavirus in a resident who had returned from the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak of the viral disease.

Full article here:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-canada/canada-identifies-first-case-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN1ZO0T9?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29

[jimmy olsen]

We're fucked. Absolutely boned. This virus has a two week incubation period.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-rises-to-54-as-canada-confirms-first-case

45m ago
08:18
China's national health minister Ma Xiaowei said the new coronavirus is also infectious during incubation, which is different from Sars.

He said authorities' knowledge of the new virus was limited and they are unclear on the risks posed by mutations of the virus.

The press conference ended with a promise to live up to "the expectations of the people" and to increase transparency. To that end, they said there would be a press conference every morning.

And the Chinese New Year had hundreds of millions of people on the move.

#JUSTIN HK confirmed a 6th imported case of #nCov2019, concerning a 47yo HK man working on the mainland. He was in Wuchang District, Wuhan from Jan 16 to 23. He took high speed train G1035 from Xianning to Shenzhen on Jan 23, and then G407 to West Kowloon Terminus.