Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[alfred russel]

You would have had millions of New Yorkers fleeing the city, bringing the disease with them.

Plus the optics look bad.  Most people don't have summer homes or the like, so that's an option for only the well-to-do.  In a crisis like this you want to urge a "we're all in this together" spirit.

A main reason this exploded in more dense urban environments is because the transmission rate is higher. As a rudimentary example without getting into exponential growth--if the average person in Rochester was transmitting to 2 people, and 3 in NYC, if 100 asymptomatic people move to Rochester, that has saves a life (with 1% mortality).

The "optics" argument is a really bad argument. Is your point that people should die so that the optics are acceptable?

[Eddie Teach]

Optics affect compliance, so it's unlikely bad optics would lead to saving lives.

[Tamas]

Yeah, I think discipline was waning even before this. There are some horrific pictures of overcrowding at places the Brits call beaches.

Outdoors spread seems minuscule, move the pubs and restaurants outdoors as much as possible and slather everything in hand sanitizer.

Years from now, people people will look back on this and find our response to covid-19 was absolutely mad--"so you responded to a disease spread mainly indoors in densely populated areas by telling everyone to stay inside and not to relocate out of cities, while freaking out if anyone visited the beach or went birdwatching? and people trying to sell masks were actually sanctioned in the early days?"

[HisMajestyBOB]

Years from now historians will look back on this as the time Dorsey was tragically inconvenienced despite being right about everything. It will be known as "The Year Without Rock Climbing".

[Sheilbh]

The tabloids are continuing to enjoy this - don't see it calming down any time soon:


Edit: Also only a snapshot etc etc, but some pretty extraordinary polling in the Mail:
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1265385466079195136?s=20

[Josquius]

Even the Star of all papers is scoring points.

[Sheilbh]

Even the Star of all papers is scoring points.

I know! And that feels like two direct hits.

Also looking at that polling (and Newsnight tonight) I agree with Stephen Pollard's comment. Amazingly the governments managed to manufacture a situations where if they do what the public want, Johnson loses all authority. If they don't do what the public wants, Johnson loses all authority. And the public didn't know it wanted this on Friday morning

[alfred russel]

Years from now historians will look back on this as the time Dorsey was tragically inconvenienced despite being right about everything. It will be known as "The Year Without Rock Climbing".

I don't think that is right. In the long term, historians will look at aspects of the lockdown as counterproductive, resulting in increased mortality and economic hardship.

In the medium term, it will result in a further erosion of faith in our institutions. I do not think it will be long before we are seeing editorials, "They were wrong on Covid-19, should we really trust them on climate change?"

The shame of it is, while this is still early days, the very earliest studies of data appear to align with what we now know. For example, the survey of the Diamond Princess estimated that the fatality rate in China would be 0.5%. In mid March the British estimate of the fatality rate was 0.6% (though with considerable uncertainty). It is the work done on the early spread of the disease in Wuhan that indicated that it was almost entirely being spread indoors. It was the media that scared people into believing this was something worse than what it is.

[Zoupa]

That damn media, killing a hundred thousand americans! Shame on them, really.

[Valmy]

I don't think that is right. In the long term, historians will look at aspects of the lockdown as counterproductive, resulting in increased mortality and economic hardship.

In the medium term, it will result in a further erosion of faith in our institutions. I do not think it will be long before we are seeing editorials, "They were wrong on Covid-19, should we really trust them on climate change?"

The shame of it is, while this is still early days, the very earliest studies of data appear to align with what we now know. For example, the survey of the Diamond Princess estimated that the fatality rate in China would be 0.5%. In mid March the British estimate of the fatality rate was 0.6% (though with considerable uncertainty). It is the work done on the early spread of the disease in Wuhan that indicated that it was almost entirely being spread indoors. It was the media that scared people into believing this was something worse than what it is.

Wait so what was it? The institutions or the media? The media didn't order anything or recommend anything.

Besides what should we have done? Had everybody go outside? I mean if the fatality rate is 0.6% or 0.5% we are still talking about a million or more people.

But anyway I mean why have you been going on and on and on about this for months? None of us had jack fuck to do with this or are deciding anything, it was the governor of Georgia, or whomever, who shut down your rock climbing not us. Why do you care so much what we think?

[Zoupa]

Dorsey just expects the universe to bend to his whims.

I'm reminded of the disaster/animal abuse of his "adventure cat" 

[Richard Hakluyt]

Even the Star of all papers is scoring points.

I know! And that feels like two direct hits.

Also looking at that polling (and Newsnight tonight) I agree with Stephen Pollard's comment. Amazingly the governments managed to manufacture a situations where if they do what the public want, Johnson loses all authority. If they don't do what the public wants, Johnson loses all authority. And the public didn't know it wanted this on Friday morning

That's a cracking front page from the Star 

I think the time is ripe for a rewrite of Python's Four Yorkshiremen sketch. It would be called Four Senior Tories and would have them making increasingly insane boasts about how they tested their eyesight during lockdown by driving around the country. Could be most amusing (and cause further damage to the government) if done right.

[Tamas]

 

I am enjoying this, I am not gonna lie.

[Sheilbh]

It is nice when the whole country can come together like this and it's so rare that we get to the commemorative cut-out front page stage of a political scandal

Edit: Incidentally apparently around 4 million people tuned in for his press conference. I wonder how much of the current anger has been very strongly stoked by him keeping everyone waiting half an hour and then just saying "sorry, I'm late".

[Sheilbh]

Also heartbreaking open letter on Facebook by a mother to her local MP (a Tory who has now called for Cummings to go). Its communications, and by all accounts MPs are receiving hundreds of personal stories like this, that are making it clear that it isn't a bubble story.

It's also something I think about a lot - also with the reported increase in domestic violence and child abuse - that while it's incredibly important to remember these measures because of the impact they can have on the most vulnerable, for many, many people this lockdown isn't just an inconvenience. I'm fine. So, I think, are most people but there are thousands and thousands of people who are really suffering through this and I don't have an idea how to help them - on the domestic violence side which I know a bit about, a lot of shelters (which are also socially distancing) are now running out of space.

Dear Jeremy

I hope this email finds you safe and well.

You may remember we met last year and discussed my concerns over the impact of a No Deal Brexit on my son's Car T Cell therapy for his leukaemia. Fred did go ahead to receive this but sadly died during treatment on 3rd May.

Fred was an in patient in hospital from February at Birmingham Children's Hospital and Great Ormond Street Hospital, at a time when Covid-19 was becoming an issue and when full lockdown went into effect. This added complications and trauma to an already very difficult situation.

During this time Fred did actually contract Coronavirus and, although displaying no symptoms, we were moved to an isolation room with him in hospital. This meant that Fred, my husband and myself spent 10 days in an en suite hospital room without being able to leave, even into the corridor.

From late March,, even when not in isolation, Fred was allowed to receive no visitors other than the two of us. When we moved to GOSH, and were told his condition was life threatening, we had to make the difficult decision of finding childcare for our 11 year old, who was not allowed in the hospital. We agonised over this, knowing that breaking the lockdown was potentially putting other family members at risk. We spoke at length to our medical teams, and infection control to establish what was and was not acceptable and whether our situation was considered exceptional enough. This now seems laughable.

After Fred's death, we had to return to our family to collect Arthur. Only 10 people were allowed at Fred's funeral, which was a short graveside service on 14th May. We were pleased that, by that time, lockdown had eased so that his school friends felt able to at least stand outside along the route from our house to the church to pay their respects, some cycled alongside the hearse.

However the isolation we have felt, being unable to see our friends at this time, particularly for Arthur, has been immeasurable.

Therefore you can understand my dismay at the revelations about Dominic Cummings over the weekend, and the extraordinary lengths the Government has gone to to defend his actions.

The guidance was crystal clear. If you or a member of your family have symptoms of coronavirus you must not leave the house for any reason.

The defence that he was anxious for the welfare of his child does not cut it with me. His wife was only mildly ill, he was showing no symptoms, these were not extraordinary circumstances. Quite frankly it is offensive to every family who has had to make incredibly difficult decisions and made extraordinary sacrifices in this lockdown, that this counts as a special case. I can list countless other options the Cummings family had.

How many parents have had coronavirus whilst living with a child in the house? Is the Government now saying that all of them would have been free to have travelled around the country finding a more convenient place to stay whilst they were at their most contagious?

Although I have disagreed with you on many of your voting decisions, I have always had respect for your integrity and experience. I trust, as a former Attorney General, that you have respect for both the letter and the spirit of the laws that we have all been abiding by for the public good.

I would like you to pass on my experience to the Prime Minister, and every cabinet minister who has publicly defended Dominic Cumming's actions. I would also like your assurance that the safety of the public, and the importance of controlling the virus is more important that one man's job.

Thank you for your time and I look forward to your reply.

Yours sincerely.

Louise Bennett