Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Legbiter]

If chavs can't go to southern Europe this summer (the horror!), you'll get the "plebeian riff-raff" anyways. 

Oh they'll show up all right. They'll combine into a huge armed horde called the Chavingi and set off on foot, burning and pillaging as they go along.

[Josquius]

If chavs can't go to southern Europe this summer (the horror!), you'll get the "plebeian riff-raff" anyways. 

Oh they'll show up all right. They'll combine into a huge armed horde called the Chavingi and set off on foot, burning and pillaging as they go along.

And then finally Britain can be free

[alfred russel]

Yeah, I think discipline was waning even before this. There are some horrific pictures of overcrowding at places the Brits call beaches.

Outdoors spread seems minuscule, move the pubs and restaurants outdoors as much as possible and slather everything in hand sanitizer.

Years from now, people people will look back on this and find our response to covid-19 was absolutely mad--"so you responded to a disease spread mainly indoors in densely populated areas by telling everyone to stay inside and not to relocate out of cities, while freaking out if anyone visited the beach or went birdwatching? and people trying to sell masks were actually sanctioned in the early days?"

[Barrister]

Yeah, I think discipline was waning even before this. There are some horrific pictures of overcrowding at places the Brits call beaches.

Outdoors spread seems minuscule, move the pubs and restaurants outdoors as much as possible and slather everything in hand sanitizer.

Years from now, people people will look back on this and find our response to covid-19 was absolutely mad--"so you responded to a disease spread mainly indoors in densely populated areas by telling everyone to stay inside and not to relocate out of cities, while freaking out if anyone visited the beach or went birdwatching? and people trying to sell masks were actually sanctioned in the early days?"

Not to relocate out of cities was absolutely the right call.  That was a significant part of the spread in Italy - where they announced a lockdown in advance, so tons of people left Milan and spread the disease over a much wider area.

[Valmy]

Yeah, I think discipline was waning even before this. There are some horrific pictures of overcrowding at places the Brits call beaches.

Outdoors spread seems minuscule, move the pubs and restaurants outdoors as much as possible and slather everything in hand sanitizer.

Years from now, people people will look back on this and find our response to covid-19 was absolutely mad--"so you responded to a disease spread mainly indoors in densely populated areas by telling everyone to stay inside and not to relocate out of cities, while freaking out if anyone visited the beach or went birdwatching? and people trying to sell masks were actually sanctioned in the early days?"

I mean I presume people in the future will realize that every single detail about COVID-19 was not known to us in advance and we were applying general pandemic response strategies.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, I think discipline was waning even before this. There are some horrific pictures of overcrowding at places the Brits call beaches.

Outdoors spread seems minuscule, move the pubs and restaurants outdoors as much as possible and slather everything in hand sanitizer.

Years from now, people people will look back on this and find our response to covid-19 was absolutely mad--"so you responded to a disease spread mainly indoors in densely populated areas by telling everyone to stay inside and not to relocate out of cities, while freaking out if anyone visited the beach or went birdwatching? and people trying to sell masks were actually sanctioned in the early days?"

I mean I presume people in the future will realize that every single detail about COVID-19 was not known to us in advance and we were applying general pandemic response strategies.

The interesting thing to see in the future is whether the Swedish approach turned out to be the best one in similar conditions and what, if anything, was ever going to work across a nation as diverse as the US - even if one assumes a competent federal government. 

[alfred russel]

Not to relocate out of cities was absolutely the right call.  That was a significant part of the spread in Italy - where they announced a lockdown in advance, so tons of people left Milan and spread the disease over a much wider area.

There has been a lower rate of transmission outside of densely populated areas. Getting people outside of cities would have meant less disease. People who are dead would be alive today.

There are truly remote communities without access to healthcare where this could have been a problem. Those communities could have been protected.

[alfred russel]

Yeah, I think discipline was waning even before this. There are some horrific pictures of overcrowding at places the Brits call beaches.

Outdoors spread seems minuscule, move the pubs and restaurants outdoors as much as possible and slather everything in hand sanitizer.

Years from now, people people will look back on this and find our response to covid-19 was absolutely mad--"so you responded to a disease spread mainly indoors in densely populated areas by telling everyone to stay inside and not to relocate out of cities, while freaking out if anyone visited the beach or went birdwatching? and people trying to sell masks were actually sanctioned in the early days?"

I mean I presume people in the future will realize that every single detail about COVID-19 was not known to us in advance and we were applying general pandemic response strategies.

Valmy, I was saying this shit a couple months ago, and I recall you being rather condescending toward me. The data was there.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, I think discipline was waning even before this. There are some horrific pictures of overcrowding at places the Brits call beaches.

Outdoors spread seems minuscule, move the pubs and restaurants outdoors as much as possible and slather everything in hand sanitizer.

Years from now, people people will look back on this and find our response to covid-19 was absolutely mad--"so you responded to a disease spread mainly indoors in densely populated areas by telling everyone to stay inside and not to relocate out of cities, while freaking out if anyone visited the beach or went birdwatching? and people trying to sell masks were actually sanctioned in the early days?"

I mean I presume people in the future will realize that every single detail about COVID-19 was not known to us in advance and we were applying general pandemic response strategies.

Valmy, I was saying this shit a couple months ago, and I recall you being rather condescending toward me. The data was there.

It is funny that you read Valmy as conceding you were right.

[Barrister]

Not to relocate out of cities was absolutely the right call.  That was a significant part of the spread in Italy - where they announced a lockdown in advance, so tons of people left Milan and spread the disease over a much wider area.

There has been a lower rate of transmission outside of densely populated areas. Getting people outside of cities would have meant less disease. People who are dead would be alive today.

There are truly remote communities without access to healthcare where this could have been a problem. Those communities could have been protected.

You would have had millions of New Yorkers fleeing the city, bringing the disease with them.

Plus the optics look bad.  Most people don't have summer homes or the like, so that's an option for only the well-to-do.  In a crisis like this you want to urge a "we're all in this together" spirit.

[Valmy]

Valmy, I was saying this shit a couple months ago, and I recall you being rather condescending toward me. The data was there.

If I was, it was only because I found it confusing you acted like you knew everything about a disease that medical experts were still unsure about.

[Duque de Bragança]

If chavs can't go to southern Europe this summer (the horror!), you'll get the "plebeian riff-raff" anyways. 

Oh they'll show up all right. They'll combine into a huge armed horde called the Chavingi and set off on foot, burning and pillaging as they go along.

And then finally Britain can be free

This is not the Brexit promised!

[alfred russel]

Valmy, I was saying this shit a couple months ago, and I recall you being rather condescending toward me. The data was there.

If I was, it was only because I found it confusing you acted like you knew everything about a disease that medical experts were still unsure about.

If I acted like I was sure, you are welcome to find the stuff I was wrong regarding and bring it up to prove your point.

You didn't have that attitude to a bunch of other languishites who spoke with certainty, and time has shown to be so very wrong.

[Sheilbh]

Not to relocate out of cities was absolutely the right call.  That was a significant part of the spread in Italy - where they announced a lockdown in advance, so tons of people left Milan and spread the disease over a much wider area.

Is that true though? I know that was the fear at the time and it's intuitively right, but did it have that effect? From what I've seen the excess mortality in the North of Italy was up 96% (up to 31 March) but only up 2% in the rest of Italy so I don't think the spread happened. There were similar scenes in Paris (it was a national lockdown but, crazily, it was announced I think 12 hours in advance), but large chunks of France didn't have an oubtreak - Paris and Grand Est did.

I wonder if part of it that there's now been a few studies which extraordinarily suggest that about 80% of the spread is caused by about 10% of the infection either because they're superemitters (about which not much is known) or they go to a super-spreader location (choir practice, club with air-con etc).

There has been a lower rate of transmission outside of densely populated areas. Getting people outside of cities would have meant less disease. People who are dead would be alive today.

I think the link between density and transmission rate is relatively low. Other relevant factors seem to be age profile (which makes sense), multi-generational families (big factor in NY), economics/class (can your  city work from home), weather (it seems to transmit less in warmer places) and healthiness of the population. It's really striking in the US how badly it hit the poorer but less dense bits of the densest city (Queens, Bronx, Staten Island), not Manhatten and it didn't hit the second densest city, San Francisco, anywhere near as much. It's part of it, for sure, but I'm not sure how important it is.

Meanwhile in Britain where things are very normal. The Health Secretary at today's briefing said the government would be reviewing all fines imposed on people who were breaking lockdown for childcare reasons:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1265321874977947650?s=20
(Also everyone thought these member of the public questions would just be soft-ball, they're normally a lot better than the journalists. Simple, direct, to the point and not obsessed with including their own commentary on the current situation - Peston

Meanwhile Johnson's former political secretary and now an MP wrote to all Tory MPs basically telling them to stop asking for Cummings to go because Johnson's made clear he wont, so it's basically a confidence matter. Which is extraordinary see if that lasts.

And a "friend" of Dominic Cummings has been helpfully quoted in the FT: "One friend of Mr Cummings claimed he would not care about damage to the Conservatives in the polls. "If he drags the Tory party down to below the Green party in the polls, he doesn't care ... He's not a Tory, he has no party allegiance, he does not rate anyone in the cabinet," added the friend." What a helpful friend, really calming things down (In fairness I'd previously heard the only person Cummings has worked with who he rates is Michael Gove, so it seems even he has gone done in Cummings' estimation too )

[Sheilbh]

This is not the Brexit promised!

A Brexit where I'm living in Southern Europe - the dream!