Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

So far the Austrian politicians look surprisingly competent. They basically don't rule out anything, warn that things will likely get a lot worse before they get better, and usually give a bit of a heads up of the measures being contemplated. I think they were a bit slow at the start, but have come around now.

I've been fairly impressed with the government. Their polling on it is dreadful because they're not seen to be taking enough action.

But I think they're not ruling stuff out, they're flagging that things will get worse and that additional measures may be necessary. But they're also giving a fairly consistent message and regular updates to the press/Parliament. Also, as I think is UK policy because they're more trusted but also know more about it, they've been very good at handing over to the chief science and medical officers in the government when relevant.

Now I don't know if they're actually doing a good job or making the right decisions, but it seems like a grown up government which hasn't always been the case in the UK in recent years

[Tamas]

I saw it mentioned somewhere else but it is a good point to summarise my skepticism toward the British measures as well, that we should remember this government is choke full of hard-core Brexiters. They have a proven track record of being ready and willing to slash and burn everything around them if they think it will have them come out ahead, financially or otherwise.

So, I feel like I can reasonably assume their prime concern is disturbance to business and not number of deaths.

[Sheilbh]

That's the issue the UK government have. Personally I disagree, but I get it and understand why they have a credibility gap with 50% of people.

[celedhring]

Our government also seemed calm and in control until the numbers began to surge.

[Sheilbh]

Our government also seemed calm and in control until the numbers began to surge.

This is a very fair point - we are not being tested yet.

[Tamas]

Ireland is also shutting down schools.

We will very soon remain the only island (haha) of no restrictions in the midst of a shut-down continent.

[celedhring]

Ireland is also shutting down schools.

We will very soon remain the only island (haha) of no restrictions in the midst of a shut-down continent.

A more attractive destination for the virus capital than a continent burdened by regulations.

[Sheilbh]

Ireland is also shutting down schools.

We will very soon remain the only island (haha) of no restrictions in the midst of a shut-down continent.

I think this might, happen, but the basis is in that influenza pandemic strategy doc:

There  is  modelling  data  highlighting  the  potential  benefit  of  school  closures  in  certain circumstances15,  both  in  terms  of  protecting  individual  children  from  infection  and  in reducing  overall  transmission  of  the  virus  in  the  population.  However,  to  be  effective prolonged  closures  are  required.  This  would  involve  schools  over  a  wide  area,  but carries a risk that social mixing of children outside school would defeat the object of the closures.

However,  under  some  circumstances  head  teachers  (and  their  Boards  of  Governors where  relevant)  may  take  the  decision  to  close  individual  establishments  temporarily. Such closures should be guided by the following planning principles:
•    Using  a  precautionary  approach  in  the  early  stages  of  an  influenza  pandemic  and depending  on  the  public  health  risk  assessment,  Directors  of  Public  Health  may advise  localised  closures  (individual  schools  or  catchment  areas).  The  purpose would  be  to  reduce  the  initial  spread  of  infection locally  while  gathering  more information about the spread of the virus.
•    Once  the  virus  is  more  established  in  the  country,  the  general  policy  would  be  that schools  should  not  close  –  unless  there  are  specific  local  business  continuity reasons  (staff  shortages  or  particularly  vulnerable  children).  This  policy  will  be reviewed in light of information about how the pandemic is unfolding at the time.

The  impact  of  closure  of  schools  and  similar  settings  on  all  sectors  would  have substantial  economic  and  social  consequences,  and  have  a  disproportionately  large effect on health and social care because of the demographic profile of those employed in  these  sectors.  Such  a  step  would  therefore  only be  taken  in  an  influenza  pandemic with a very high impact and so, although school closures cannot be ruled out, it should not be the primary focus of schools' planning.

Edit: I think the last point is really interesting - how are countries that have closed schools providing child care for health and social care workers?

As RH says, here, I think there's a risk that the default would be - ask the grandparents to look after them which is probably the most risky thing.

[DGuller]

This period of history is going to be a very a very good case study of social media driven mass hysteria

Are you 100% as confident as you sound, or is this your best guess given what we know so far?

In any case, the problem with evaluating the validity of hysteria about pandemics is that there are no control group alternate realities to test on.  It may well be that pandemics are extinguished because hysteria occurred early enough in the process for people to collectively take actions, and nudge the diseases parameters outside of the envelope needed for disastrous and uncontained spread.

[Syt]

Edit: I think the last point is really interesting - how are countries that have closed schools providing child care for health and social care workers?

Austria suspends school for children of 15 and up.

Kids 14 and below should stay home if possible (i.e. can look after themselves, or parent can stay home - charging grandparents with looking after them should be avoided), but schools will stay open to look after them if necessary (there will be no classes, though).

[crazy canuck]

This period of history is going to be a very a very good case study of social media driven mass hysteria

Are you 100% as confident as you sound, or is this your best guess given what we know so far?

In any case, the problem with evaluating the validity of hysteria about pandemics is that there are no control group alternate realities to test on.  It may well be that pandemics are extinguished because hysteria occurred early enough in the process for people to collectively take actions, and nudge the diseases parameters outside of the envelope needed for disastrous and uncontained spread.

The head of the BC CDC said again tried to calm by pointing out our medical system is reacting well, is not being overwhelmed and that it is not inevitable that it will be.

Rather than listening to over reactions by politicians and most of social media I prefer to listen to the experts.  I know that is really out of fashion these days and I am very much out of step for paying attention to that sort of thing.

[Josephus]

Trump's ban on only the Schengen countries seems odd, half-measured and...well, Trumpian.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. I was just speaking to a colleague on this. Some transatlantic flights are still affordable, but lots of BA are now going for £1000s. Presumably because Europeans are travelling via the UK and/or Ireland.

But I also expect it's only a matter of time before we get banned as well, so wouldn't personally book a trip to the US right now.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Trump's ban on only the Schengen countries seems odd, half-measured and...well, Trumpian.

He's a gormless twat.

[Fate]

Just watched it.  It was a well written speech for the most part.  The part where he slagged on the Yuros sounded more Trumpian, as did the parts when he talked about our ossum response.

I would have dropped the orange a few notches and hammered down the sides of the pelt if I were handling makeup.

He kind of gave me the impression of drunk guy trying to pass a sobriety test. 

There were a few times when he sounded a little raspy throated. 

I don't agree he sounded presidential, but at least he was smart not to wing it, or to write his own copy.

It was an awful speech in terms of written content/delivery. Three major errors in the text/delivered version.

He said all cargo from Europe is banned. It's not. Just people. That's spooked the hell out of the markets.

He said all  travel from Europe is banned except UK. It's not. US Citizens and permanent residents/families can still travel to the US from Schengen areas.

He said all coronavirus treatment copays will be waived by health insurance companies. This is not true. Only testing, NOT treatment.