Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Jacob]

I posted a link yesterday.  What's curious is you even commented on it. 

 

[DGuller]

  Is dementia one of the known vaccine side effects?

[The Brain]

It's an unknown known.

[crazy canuck]

Is dementia one of the known vaccine side effects?

Who would remember?

[viper37]

Our constitutional court has declared that parts of the spring 2020 lockdown were unconstitutionally implemented (in particular the "you can't leave home" part). The government should have declared a state of exception (which requires prior permission by parlament) instead of emergency (which can be declared without, and is validated by parliament afterwards).

great!  the people can finally go out of their homes and celebrate in the streets!
Oh wait...

[Sheilbh]

Interesting thread from Adam Kucharski:

Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
Still see 70% quoted as level of vaccination required for 'herd immunity'. Important to note it's now likely to be much higher. The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission... 1/
In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/
If transmission reduction is less than this (which is likely the case for some vaccines against Delta), or R higher, then herd immunity wouldn't be achievable through current vaccines alone. This leads to three possibilities... 3/
If herd immunity through vaccination alone not possible, need to either: A) keep some control measures in place indefinitely, B) prepare for exit wave as measures relaxed, C) update what are already very good vaccines to be even more effective. 4/
We explored these ideas more in our (pre-Delta) paper earlier this year, with @dchodgey @markjit @StfnFlsch : https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.20.2100428
5/5

Malta is an interesting example here as it's the most vaccinated country in Europe - primarily with Pfizer and Moderna (about 2/3s to 3/4s) and they've started vaccinating children:



According to the Maltese government the new cases are overwhelmingly in the unvaccinated with many linked to travel (either they've been travelling or they work in the travel/tourism sector).

But I think this particularly exposes the risk of not enough people getting vaccinated - and even if lots of people do such as Malta or most age groups in the UK it might not be enough to avoid quite a big "exit wave".

Even if vaccines were mandated I'm not sure we'd get to 98% because of pre-existing conditions, people with allergies etc. And I still think there is a balance of risk query around vaccinating children which the experts and medical ethics people need to form a defensible view on.

[Syt]

[DGuller]

I'm starting to wonder whether we should be more aggressive with vaccination of under-12.  Is it even possible to achieve herd immunity from the delta variant while taking children out of the pool of vaccinated?

[Sheilbh]

I'm starting to wonder whether we should be more aggressive with vaccination of under-12.  Is it even possible to achieve herd immunity from the delta variant while taking children out of the pool of vaccinated?

I don't know because transmission among children under 12 is so much lower - even with the delta variant - that they might not have much of an effect/really count towards the overall calculation if that makes sense? I'm not fully sure how you work that out.

[Tamas]

I'm starting to wonder whether we should be more aggressive with vaccination of under-12.  Is it even possible to achieve herd immunity from the delta variant while taking children out of the pool of vaccinated?

I am not so sure. If there's an X% chance for them to get sideeffects like the AZ clots and Y% chance of catching covid and getting similar side effects, then Y should be noticeably higher than X to proceed.

[Sheilbh]

I am not so sure. If there's an X% chance for them to get sideeffects like the AZ clots and Y% chance of catching covid and getting similar side effects, then Y should be noticeably higher than X to proceed.

Agreed - and I think the risk of side effects outweighing the very low risks of covid for children (except for those with pre-existing conditions) could have a knock on effect on wider vaccination programs that are essential for children's health/diseases that are a significant risk to them.

I don't think it's an easy call.

[Tamas]

There seems to be a marked increase in cases among coworkers and customers' employees the last couple of weeks or so, and there are still restrictions on paper. Operation IF Not Now When is going to be a smashing success, we all will have been through our first infection in no time.

[Tamas]

The number of people in hospital with coronavirus could reach "quite scary" levels within weeks, Chris Whitty has said.

In an online event on Thursday evening, the chief medical officer said England's coronavirus crisis could return again surprisingly quickly and the country is "not yet out of the woods".

Somebody should tell him that's in stark contrast with the government's stance and plans.

[Zanza]

So the Netherlands has a R value of greater 2 right now. WTF.

[Maladict]

So the Netherlands has a R value of greater 2 right now. WTF.

It's worse. It was 2.9 on July 1st, the most recent reliable date.