Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

That policy seems to be a mistake as it shows how naive the EU acted and still acts. If we had kept significantly more of the European output, we could be at roughly twice the level we actually are. We should have had a policy of reciprocity from the start.

Yeah I think this is the challenge. Because reciprocity wouldn't really help that much - ake the UK. EU production is roughly 165 million of which the UK's received 21 million, or about 12.5%. UK production of AZ so far has been about 16 million AZ doses - so a reciprocal and proportional level would be 2 million. So the EU would go from 88 million (and according to the ECDC only 71 million have actually been delivered so this may be on paper deliveries too) to 90 million. I think we'd probably be having the same issue.

It feels like instead you'd need a way of blocking exports and re-allocating them to Europe. But the 21 million to the UK is reportedly about 20 million Pfizer doses (16 million have been given - 4 million for second doses which are now ramping up in the UK) and 1 million AZ. Pfizer are fulfilling their deals with the EU and the UK - it's not clear to me how stopping them from fulfilling one suddenly re-allocates those doses to another customer. And then you're at the problem of whether Pfizer, for example, chose the EU as a manufacturing base on the expectation that they would be allowed to export. If they knew there were going to be restrictions would they not just have chosen a different base and exported to the EU?

I think the best strategy instead of either reciprocity or restrictions, in retrospect, might have been to let the Inclusive Alliance go ahead in terms of procurement on behalf of the EU and then the EU could support on distribution. Because I think that way you have less process. You also have countries doing procurement, which is something they'll have done a million times before while this was a first for the EU - and it's a life and death issue. But I also think there may have been more room to be a little more aggressive on accepting some risk, or some higher prices and on prioritising speed which were tougher when all member states have input. But then have the EU supporting allocation in the way they're doing now.

I'd also add that according to VdL the EU has 88 million doses and 62 million have been used. I think there are fair criticisms of the EU on procurement and strategy (as an example the UK initially ordered 40 million doses of Pfizer split equally over Q1 and Q2, the EU's initial order was for 300 million but that's heavily weighted to Q2). But if there's 26 million or 30% of the EU supply that's not been used then that's on member states even if it's easier to kick off at the Commission.

And on that I keep coming back to it - but I think there were really compelling arguments for a second dose strategy when supply was likely to be constrained. There's now the data to back it up, but if that had been adopted more widely then 88 million doses is enough to vaccinate all of Europe's over 65s. I think the slow movement on that is a really key mistake and it was made by the member states not the Commission.

Make sure that countries that have the capabilities also trade ingredients or finished vaccines back to the EU. That clearly did not happen.

Although the UK is part of the Pfizer supply chain and there are essential raw materials exporting from the UK to the EU.

Edit: For what it's worth I do think the EU should be looking at ways to seize doses because I think you can say this is an emergency situation. I'd focus on AZ because they're the company that's failed and it would seem incredibly harsh to suddenly stop Pfizer (who are meeting their obligations) from meeting other obligations but that should be considered in an extreme case.

[Iormlund]

It's pretty tough to go an entire day without touching your mouth/face with your hands, or even remembering to wash your hands in between the touching every time.  Pretty damn near impossible.

That one is interesting. Lots of my colleagues keep touching their faces/masks. On the other hand, I have no issues at all refraining from doing so. Even before the pandemic I had conditioned myself not to touch my face when wearing welding gloves (which are covered with soot and oil). With a mask on it is even easier. I only ever touch it by the strings.

[Sheilbh]

It's pretty tough to go an entire day without touching your mouth/face with your hands, or even remembering to wash your hands in between the touching every time.  Pretty damn near impossible.

That one is interesting. Lots of my colleagues keep touching their faces/masks. On the other hand, I have no issues at all refraining from doing so. Even before the pandemic I had conditioned myself not to touch my face when wearing welding gloves (which are covered with soot and oil). With a mask on it is even easier. I only ever touch it by the strings.

Yeah I remember early in the pandemic being suddenly aware how much I touch my face once we were all told to stop touching our faces

I'm fairly good at not messing with my mask to much but I do adjust it probably a lot more than I should on the nose etc.

[Zanza]

The focus on also administering second doses in the prescribed time scales can be excused as that follows the vaccine design, the tests underlying approval and the recommendations from EMA and national regulators. Obviously the European regulators are more risk averse than the British regulator. I guess politicians should not second guess regulators.

Proportionality is one possible way to do reciprocity.

The rollout in Germany is definitely supply constrained, so the gap between delivered and administered doses is just a few days.

[Sheilbh]

Also on the foreign policy benefits - I don't think they'll arrive (except for some via Covax) - because ultimately all the EU is doing is allowing companies to provide products that they've sold to other governments.

That's very different from China, say, who are clearly using this for foreign policy benefits (and can afford to given the covid situation there) by supplying Hungary or Serbia with doses. The EU equivalent is Pfizer is supplying Serbia. So unless there's a Europharm vaccine or some way to prioritise foreign policy priorities over domestic supplies, in the way China and Russia have.

I'd argue if the EU was looking for foreign policy benefits then the map would look very different than that - and would focus on the EU's neighbourhood but there's nothing being exported to the Balkans or Ukraine. That looks like a map of countries that contract with big western pharma companies which is what it is.

[Admiral Yi]

I wonder why Canada didn't join COVAX.

[Barrister]

I wonder why Canada didn't join COVAX.

We did.

We actually received some criticism about Covax.  The majority of wealthy countries that joined Covax announced they wouldn't be accepting any doses from Covax - that all of those could go to the developing world.  Canada though said we would accept our share of Covax doses (which is allowed under the program).

But the large majority of our doses is expected to come from deals directly with pharmaceutical companies.

[crazy canuck]

I wonder why Canada didn't join COVAX.

I wonder why you think Canada isnt getting some supply through COVAX

[viper37]

With a mask on it is even easier. I only ever touch it by the strings.

I'm trying, but I fail miserably at that

[Admiral Yi]

We did.

We actually received some criticism about Covax.  The majority of wealthy countries that joined Covax announced they wouldn't be accepting any doses from Covax - that all of those could go to the developing world.  Canada though said we would accept our share of Covax doses (which is allowed under the program).

But the large majority of our doses is expected to come from deals directly with pharmaceutical companies.

Interesting.  Wonder why Canada doesn't show up in Zanza's map.

Do you happen to know from which countries Canada received its COVAS shipments?

[Grey Fox]

Yi, so far only AZ vaccines from India are on order. We have received no CoVax vaccines so far.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I think the EU has bought itself tremendous good will because of it's vaccine export policy personally.

the eu is, however, not gaining it from the people it rules. on the contrary, it seems more like yet another display of incompetence

[Sheilbh]

The focus on also administering second doses in the prescribed time scales can be excused as that follows the vaccine design, the tests underlying approval and the recommendations from EMA and national regulators. Obviously the European regulators are more risk averse than the British regulator. I guess politicians should not second guess regulators.

Yes - although the flawed AZ trial does include delayed dose data because of mistakes in the trial.

I'm not sure if it's risk. The UK regulators (who also decide the prioritisation/scheduling of vaccination roll-out) positioned it as based on the public health benefit which would be higher in general even if each person has a (slightly) lower benefit themselves. They were also explicit that they were basing it on sort of reasonable expectations, so there is no vaccine distributed in the UK with a booster shot earlier than 3 months, so based on that they said it was likely that you could delay the second doses for up to 3 months. There is an element to risk on that but their point was - do we think this vaccine is unlike every other vaccine we know about just because we don't have the data to show it's not?

I think if a regulator was primarily focused about its sort of duties to each individual rather than public health or if it isn't prepared to move based on reasonable expectations based other things we know - so where there's no data - then it would go in a different direction for entirely sensible sort of philosophical reasons of what its role as a regulator is. And obviously there is a sort of risk there that by focusing on the individual you might harm the public health, say.

[Syt]

Over 3800 new cases in Austria, 1000+ in Vienna - second day in a row.

7 day case numbers per 100k for Austria is 248 (Germany: 119), Vienna: 316.

Went to a park this morning to catch some sun. I notice people are making more of an effort to keep distance again.

[Iormlund]

I think the EU has bought itself tremendous good will because of it's vaccine export policy personally.

the eu is, however, not gaining it from the people it rules. on the contrary, it seems more like yet another display of incompetence

Agreed.

And the fact that Ursula von der Leyen still has a job does not fill me with confidence for the future. I fear we have learned nothing for the next one.