Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[viper37]

IIRC, the key to spread is still close contact and macro-droplets with 15 minutes or more contact.  Ventilation is certainly a problem, but not that much responsible for most non-crowded places.  Even with good ventilation, if you cram 150 people in an area that shouldn't have more than 50, you will get transmission.  But I guess with excellent ventilation we could have more people inside.  Would that reduce/eliminate contagion, I do not know.  If better ventilation lets us remove the mask, than go for it, make these companies crazy rich dammit.

Maybe. I basicaly just mean open all the windows and mainly do stuff outside when I'm talking about ventilation - I'm very simple about it

Ah.  I have something more... sophisticated in mind

I'm not convinced AC would help if it just recirculates the same air.

Some commercial systems had filtration units embedded, the more modern ones, UV filters.

[The Larch]

Interesting news on Oxford/AZ - Oxford are apparently looking for volunteers for a trial of delivering the vaccine via a nasal spray instead of an injection I don't think there's many people that scared of needles but it might be easier if we're going to be getting booster shots etc? Maybe it's be quicker and easier to deliver for health services?

That's already being tried in Spain, one of the vaccines that the national research institute is developing is originally conceived as a nasal spray.

And don't understimate the amount of people afraid of needles. 

[viper37]

46 new cases in my area.  Record was 43 new cases for December.  Is there no end to this? ...   Just when we were getting better.  If I find the one who brought that variant here...

[mongers]

Reports of a new variant with a 'double mutation' has emerged in India, several dozen cases discovered.

[Sheilbh]

Germany has gotten some Moderna.

3.8 million doses AZ so far (with 1.7 million expected next week , then about 450k per week afterwards)
11 million Pfizer/Biontech (1 million more expected next week, then 2.5 million per week expected in April)
1 million Moderna (about 1-1.3 million expected in April)
Nothing yet for J&J or CureVac (Germany's fifth option)

From everything I've read (and based on the leaked Scottish delivery schedule for Q1) the UK's still basically 50/50 Pfizer and AZ. Moderna's authorised but not expected for a while. And I don't think J&J has submitted for authorisation in the UK. Basically we should have a lot until this weekend and then a significantly lower amount which'll be focused on second vaccinations through April.

It should then pick up a bit in May I think part of that is Novavax who are aiming for May approval in the UK. But they've announced that they're experiencing production issues (so have delayed signing a contract to supply the EU).

According to the Danes they're expecting less J&J than anticipated in April and it feels like that won't be a Denmark specific issue.

Edit: Incidentally AZ has updated their data for the FDA: "AstraZeneca vaccine is 100% effective against severe illness and 76% against COVID-19 symptoms, updated US trial data shows"

Given we're talking about a difference of 3% in non-severe cases I really don't know if it needed an unprecedented, "highly unusual" public statement by regulators as opposed to a private bollocking

[Grey Fox]

46 new cases in my area.  Record was 43 new cases for December.  Is there no end to this? ...   Just when we were getting better.  If I find the one who brought that variant here...

A pandemic last, on average, 2.5 years.

[Barrister]

Germany has gotten some Moderna.

3.8 million doses AZ so far (with 1.7 million expected next week , then about 450k per week afterwards)
11 million Pfizer/Biontech (1 million more expected next week, then 2.5 million per week expected in April)
1 million Moderna (about 1-1.3 million expected in April)
Nothing yet for J&J or CureVac (Germany's fifth option)

From everything I've read (and based on the leaked Scottish delivery schedule for Q1) the UK's still basically 50/50 Pfizer and AZ. Moderna's authorised but not expected for a while. And I don't think J&J has submitted for authorisation in the UK. Basically we should have a lot until this weekend and then a significantly lower amount which'll be focused on second vaccinations through April.

It should then pick up a bit in May I think part of that is Novavax who are aiming for May approval in the UK. But they've announced that they're experiencing production issues (so have delayed signing a contract to supply the EU).

According to the Danes they're expecting less J&J than anticipated in April and it feels like that won't be a Denmark specific issue.

Canada as a whole is expecting 1.2 Mil Pfizer this week and next, declining slightly to 1 million per week through to the end of May.

Moderna on the other hand we're expecting 800k biweekly this set and next, moving up to 1.2 mil in later April.

1.5 mil US-sourced AZ doses have been announced but no timetable yet.  We previously received 500k Indian-sourced AZ but that appears to have been a one-shot deal (India is now prohibiting exports).

So in total 4.7 mil doses have been delivered, all so far requiring two doses.  At a rate of 1.5 mil per week this'll take well over a year from now to get everyone fully vaccinated.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html

[Zanza]

Here is an overview of the current German vaccine campaign:
https://impfdashboard.de/

[Syt]

https://twitter.com/herszenhorn/status/1375082049409798155

David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn

#Austria Chancellor @sebastiankurz is in today's virtual summit apparently trying to convince #EUCO leaders that the lives of Austrians are more valuable those of citizens of other #EU countries. I'm not hearing anyone is being easily convinced (or that he is winning any friends)

2:48 PM · Mar 25, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

(keeping in mind that Austrian vaccination is going faster than EU average so far)

[Sheilbh]

Chart of variants within samples across a number of countries - interesting that in the US B117/UK variant appears to be getting out-competed

[Zanza]

Figures for vaccine exports: 77m doses exported since Dec, 88m kept for EU use.



That policy seems to be a mistake as it shows how naive the EU acted and still acts. If we had kept significantly more of the European output, we could be at roughly twice the level we actually are. We should have had a policy of reciprocity from the start.

The argument that it somehow is morally right to export rings hollow when Europe is among the hardest hit areas in the world. Also does not violate obligations under WTO or so as these typically have public health exceptions.

It also does not buy gratitude. See e.g. the UK, where the hostile Johnson government uses the vaccination program fuelled by the 21 million doses delivered from the EU for its incessant anti-EU propaganda.

The naivete of the EU is grating and will cost lives as well as undermine public perception of legitimacy of national governments and the EU itself. The miniscule foreign policy benefits this might have pales in comparison. 

[Barrister]

That policy seems to be a mistake as it shows how naive the EU acted and still acts. If we had kept significantly more of the European output, we could be at roughly twice the level we actually are. We should have had a policy of reciprocity from the start.

What do you mean by a policy of "reciprocity"?

I think the EU has bought itself tremendous good will because of it's vaccine export policy personally.

[Valmy]

Gratitude is not really a thing in international politics unfortunately.

And European nations should know that more than most.

[Valmy]

I think the EU has bought itself tremendous good will because of it's vaccine export policy personally.

Well I hope so. I haven't heard many talk about all the good work the Euros have done for us over here.

[Zanza]

That policy seems to be a mistake as it shows how naive the EU acted and still acts. If we had kept significantly more of the European output, we could be at roughly twice the level we actually are. We should have had a policy of reciprocity from the start.

What do you mean by a policy of "reciprocity"?

Make sure that countries that have the capabilities also trade ingredients or finished vaccines back to the EU. That clearly did not happen.

I think the EU has bought itself tremendous good will because of it's vaccine export policy personally.

I doubt that. The EU has certainly lost a lot of domestic legitimacy.