Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Brain]

Hungary's secretive attitude to statistics continue to be ridiculous. For example, it took extensive grilling of the press secretary yesterday by one of the liberal websites to learn that "if he remembers correctly" there are 961 people in ICU with covid. There's no official source of this information because of... reasons.

Incidentally that also means that 0.1% of the population is in ICU with Covid. I wonder if that's high or not?

Well if you've lost 90% of the population already then that's certainly cause for concern.

[Tamas]

lol ok so my math was off with a decimal  bite me

[Sheilbh]

Can't seem to find the guidance on mistletoe 

I hadn't realised that apparently in the rest of Europe there are debates over whether or not to open the ski resorts. Which I kind of get because, it's a bit like Greek islands in summer, if they don't have a season then those regions are fucked. But given the issue with the Tyrol as a continent wide super-spreader last winter it just feels like we need one season off.

Apparently the French solution is that ski resorts will be open. But ski lifts are closed

Edit: I'm assuming our "ski" resort in Aviemore is just closed, which is probably best for all concerned.

[The Brain]

I suppose helicopter skiing is nice.

[Grey Fox]

Hungary's secretive attitude to statistics continue to be ridiculous. For example, it took extensive grilling of the press secretary yesterday by one of the liberal websites to learn that "if he remembers correctly" there are 961 people in ICU with covid. There's no official source of this information because of... reasons.

Incidentally that also means that 0.01% of the population is in ICU with Covid. I wonder if that's high or not?

0.00001% of the Quebec population is in ICU with Covid (93 persons).

[Sheilbh]

Hungary's secretive attitude to statistics continue to be ridiculous. For example, it took extensive grilling of the press secretary yesterday by one of the liberal websites to learn that "if he remembers correctly" there are 961 people in ICU with covid. There's no official source of this information because of... reasons.

Incidentally that also means that 0.01% of the population is in ICU with Covid. I wonder if that's high or not?

Not sure and this may be useless because I'm not sure all countries measure things the same way (for example the UK stat here for ICU is, in the UK stats, described as mechanical bed use rates), because the UK has about 1,400 in ICU, Spain about 3,000 and the Netherlands peaked at about 600:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-data-hospital-and-icu-admission-rates-and-current-occupancy-covid-19

[Syt]

A representative sample of the populace was tested a few weeks ago. Preliminary results show that there would be ca. 220,000 cases in Austria, or ca. 3% of the population. However, in December there will be (voluntary) mass testing. In Vienna it will be 2nd through 12th, so there should be a much clearer picture afterwards.

[crazy canuck]

The big question for us is whether out-of-custody trials get cancelled again.  Premier Kenney goes on at 4:30 to announced the new restrictions, whatever they might be.

So Kenney announces a Public Health Emergency.  Following new restrictions:

-no indoor social gatherings of any kind, under penalty of law
-Grades 7-12 to move to online learning until after Christmas
-some businesses closed (concert halls, indoor kids playgrounds, all levels of sport)
-most other businesses to run at only 25% capacity
-Churches at max 1/3 capacity
-restaurants to remain open, can only sit with your family group, liquor to stop at 10 and close by 11, no games or entertainment (no pool or other games)

We'll see what they do with criminal trials a bit later.  Last time that did not come from the government but rather the judiciary.  We have taken steps to moderate the risk of criminal trials, but then again so have a lot of other sectors that just got limited or closed down.

There seems to be an element of the movie downfall in all of this. The patience of a large portion of the population has worn out and government responses are ineffective at stopping people from getting together.

In the case of Alberta the government response has been limited and as a result they have , not just the most cases per capita in Canada, but the most cases period.   These measures are being heavily criticized as being too little way too late.  They probably would have worked if implemented a month ago, like most of the other provinces did.  But unlikely to be enough now.

Alberta is a very good example of political ideology getting in the way of good public health policy.

More confirmation of Alberta's special form of conservative ideology getting in the way of good policy health policy.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-covid-19-response-tension-recordings-1.5814877

The recordings show, "how Premier Jason Kenney, Shandro and other cabinet ministers often micromanaged the actions of already overwhelmed civil servants; sometimes overruled their expert advice; and pushed an early relaunch strategy that seemed more focused on the economy and avoiding the appearance of curtailing Albertans' freedoms than enforcing compliance to safeguard public health."

An interesting difference between the statutory powers of the Provincial Health Officer in BC and the equivalent in Alberta.  The BC Health official has the power to issue orders without needing political approval.  It turns out the Alberta health official only makes recommendations and politicians make medical decisions.

One of problems of course is a politician, especially one like Kenney, is unlikely to have the capacity or will to understand the science.  Instead he did things like this:

A source with direct knowledge of the daily planning meetings said the premier wants evidence-based thresholds for mandatory restrictions that are effectively impossible to meet, especially in an ever-changing pandemic.

As of Wednesday, no thresholds have been designated publicly.

The source said Kenney's attitude was that he wasn't going to close down anything that affected the economy unless he was provided with specific evidence about how it would curtail the spread of COVID-19.

"This is like nothing we have ever seen before. So [it is] very, very difficult to get specific evidence to implement specific restrictions," said the source who, like the others interviewed by CBC News, spoke on condition of confidentiality for fear of losing their job.

So there is not really a mystery why Alberta is doing so poorly now.


Btw, Malthus, it turns out the recent spike in BC was partly because of a data entry error which resulted in higher numbers being reported.

[Barrister]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-covid-19-response-tension-recordings-1.5814877

Very... interesting... look into a window of Alberta's Covid-19 response.

What makes it so interesting is we haven't seen this kind of high-level leaks, well, anywhere in dealing with Covid.  This is right up to the Minister's and Premier's level.  And to secretly record a meeting like that?  It's certainly a fireable offence within the public service.

And it raises the question of who the leaker is.  The article several times quotes "a source close to Dr. Hinshaw".  The first suspect then is, of course, Dr. Hinshaw - or that it is someone acting on HInshaw's blessing.  Because there's a very clear message - that Hinshaw will quit if pushed too far.

Now all of that being said I would be shocked if there weren't similar kinds of policy disagreements in every jurisdiction.  You simply have people with differing priorities - health professionals will obviously rank public health very highly in importance, whereas politicians will always value the economy.  How you try to balance those two competing priorities is always going to be difficult.

[Tamas]

Hungary's secretive attitude to statistics continue to be ridiculous. For example, it took extensive grilling of the press secretary yesterday by one of the liberal websites to learn that "if he remembers correctly" there are 961 people in ICU with covid. There's no official source of this information because of... reasons.

Incidentally that also means that 0.01% of the population is in ICU with Covid. I wonder if that's high or not?

Not sure and this may be useless because I'm not sure all countries measure things the same way (for example the UK stat here for ICU is, in the UK stats, described as mechanical bed use rates), because the UK has about 1,400 in ICU, Spain about 3,000 and the Netherlands peaked at about 600:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-data-hospital-and-icu-admission-rates-and-current-occupancy-covid-19

Based on the article I just read on this, seems like only Belgium has more people in ICU per million inhabitants. Even the Czechs are doing better.

[crazy canuck]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-covid-19-response-tension-recordings-1.5814877

Very... interesting... look into a window of Alberta's Covid-19 response.

What makes it so interesting is we haven't seen this kind of high-level leaks, well, anywhere in dealing with Covid.  This is right up to the Minister's and Premier's level.  And to secretly record a meeting like that?  It's certainly a fireable offence within the public service.

And it raises the question of who the leaker is.  The article several times quotes "a source close to Dr. Hinshaw".  The first suspect then is, of course, Dr. Hinshaw - or that it is someone acting on HInshaw's blessing.  Because there's a very clear message - that Hinshaw will quit if pushed too far.

Now all of that being said I would be shocked if there weren't similar kinds of policy disagreements in every jurisdiction.  You simply have people with differing priorities - health professionals will obviously rank public health very highly in importance, whereas politicians will always value the economy.  How you try to balance those two competing priorities is always going to be difficult.

lol

Look at the post immediately above yours, you party hack 

[Barrister]

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/made-in-canada-solution-to-covid-19-vaccine-availability-delayed-due-to-unfinished-construction

Early in the pandemic, the government pledged $44 million for an expansion of the NRC's Royalmount Avenue facility in Montreal. That work was supposed to be completed this month and would have allowed the facility to produce up to 250,000 doses a month.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed in Question Period on Wednesday that the facility's construction is not finished.

"We commissioned to build a vaccine manufacturing facility at the Royalmount Research Council facility in Montreal. But we are still in construction of that facility," he said. "We have made investments to stand up more bio-manufacturing capacity in Canada after 10 long years of a Conservative government that saw most of our vaccine manufacturers cut production."

Advertisement
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.
Article content continued
In a statement, the NCR confirmed their facility would not be ready until mid-2021. Any vaccine manufacturing facility has to meet Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) standards and the NRC said they realized this fall the planned space would not meet those standards.

"We are, therefore, pivoting to create the permanent GMP-compliant clinical trial materials facility elsewhere in the existing building," the NRC wrote in a statement.

MORE ON THIS TOPIC

None
What to expect when COVID-19 vaccines arrive in Canada
A researcher works in a lab run by Moderna Inc, which said on Nov. 16, 2020, that its experimental vaccine was 94.5 per cent effective in preventing COVID-19 based on interim data from a late-stage clinical trial.
Trudeau warns COVID-19 vaccine will come later to Canada than other countries
It is Justin Trudeau's federal government that has the potential to fall furthest from grace, if it has miscalculated on the swift distribution of a successful vaccine.
John Ivison: Liberals not inoculated from vaccine criticism as questions over rollout mount

The NRC said the facility was initially planned as part of their work with CanSino Biologics, a Chinese firm developing a vaccine, but the deal fell apart in August when Chinese customs refused to ship vaccine samples to Canada for clinical trials.

In late August, the government pledged an additional $126 million for a larger manufacturing centre at the NRC's Montreal facility. That would be a full-sized plant, capable of making millions of doses a month, but it is not set to be finished for two years. A major investment also went to the University of Saskatchewan's VIDO-InterVac facility, but that is also more than a year away.

On Tuesday, Trudeau cautioned Canadians that while some countries may receive their vaccines beginning in December, Canada would have to wait because there was no manufacturing capacity here.

[Grey Fox]

Well, it's construction in Quebec. On time isn't a thing.

[crazy canuck]

Well, it's construction in Quebec. On time isn't a thing.

It is not actually late, and the NP article is not that well written.  It takes careful reading to see what actually happened.

The facility that was supposed to be finished this month was the joint Chinese project.  That was not built -the Chinese deal was cancelled.

Another completely different project received funding in August.  The article says that one will take two years to construct.  Which is actually pretty good for a large production facility.

[Barrister]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-covid-19-response-tension-recordings-1.5814877

Very... interesting... look into a window of Alberta's Covid-19 response.

What makes it so interesting is we haven't seen this kind of high-level leaks, well, anywhere in dealing with Covid.  This is right up to the Minister's and Premier's level.  And to secretly record a meeting like that?  It's certainly a fireable offence within the public service.

And it raises the question of who the leaker is.  The article several times quotes "a source close to Dr. Hinshaw".  The first suspect then is, of course, Dr. Hinshaw - or that it is someone acting on HInshaw's blessing.  Because there's a very clear message - that Hinshaw will quit if pushed too far.

Now all of that being said I would be shocked if there weren't similar kinds of policy disagreements in every jurisdiction.  You simply have people with differing priorities - health professionals will obviously rank public health very highly in importance, whereas politicians will always value the economy.  How you try to balance those two competing priorities is always going to be difficult.

Hinshaw tweets that she is not happy.

https://twitter.com/CMOH_Alberta/status/1332043808054276096

Trust has been broken. During today's availability, I will address media reports that cite secretly recorded meetings.

I appreciate the ongoing messages from Albertans and acknowledgement that the actions of a few have violated the trust of many. (1/2)


I spoke to @jkenney and @shandro this morning to convey my disappointment with the irresponsible actions of one person. We must work together in our efforts to respond to #COVID19AB. I will have more to say at 3:30pm. (2/2)

I speculated that the source may have been Hinshaw herself (and it still might be) - that maybe she meant to fire 'a shot across the bow'.  But if it wasn't her intent, then it certainly makes Dr Hinshaw's job more difficult.