Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

This chart is amazing of quarterly GDP growth since 1920. In the UK the economy grew by 15.5% in the third quarter, which is a record (though it started slowing down a lot in September as we start moving into lockdown). But it is just a really amazing visualisation of the pandemic's impact - I imagine similar in other countries:


Edit: No idea about the early 20s similar impact - General Strike maybe?

[garbon]

Hasn't the UK seen growth because the period after 1st lockdown allowed for some recovery? Not then surprising level of growth as it was caused artificially by government lockdown.

And then actual status of UK economy is still quite below status in February.

[Sheilbh]

Hasn't the UK seen growth because the period after 1st lockdown allowed for some recovery? Not then surprising level of growth as it was caused artificially by government lockdown.

And then actual status of UK economy is still quite below status in February.

Yes - still ahead of the OBR's central scenario - but now probably bouncing down because of second lockdown:


I just think it's interesting in a general sense (and I imagine it's the same everywhere) because I always assumed there would be a high level of growth back after lockdown, but I wasn't certain that would happen. And it's just a really weird experiment because I can't think of another time when loads of governments have basically tried to pause their economy deliberately, so I think there was a little uncertainty about how much it can/will recover.

I also think it indicates to me that things like furlough and supporting businesses is probably a better approach than allowing lots of redundancies/job losses and boosting employment payments.

[Agelastus]

This chart is amazing of quarterly GDP growth since 1920. In the UK the economy grew by 15.5% in the third quarter, which is a record (though it started slowing down a lot in September as we start moving into lockdown). But it is just a really amazing visualisation of the pandemic's impact - I imagine similar in other countries:


Edit: No idea about the early 20s similar impact - General Strike maybe?

1920, I think, would have been related to the botched demobilisation and winding down of wartime contracts post WWI.

1926 has to be the General Strike.

It's interesting that both instances appear (visually) much more dramatic than that caused by the 1929 crash despite the latter being, I think, the more prominent in historical and national memory.

[Syt]

7 day avg. cases per million.

[Grey Fox]

Is it Kanada too in Austria's version of German?

[Syt]

Yes.

[Syt]

Rumors are that there's a strict lockdown from next week, with the target to ease up again in December to save the Christmas business for retail.

I assume that if it's true we will have the next strict lockdown in January.

[Grey Fox]

Merci.

I googled it but I couldn't get a satisfying answer.

[Sheilbh]

From the ONS survey (which is randomised tests across the population) - it looks like the spread is starting to trend down in England (also Northern Ireland, still seems to be increasing in Scotland and Wales):


But varied picture by region:


And I'm still not sure how much of this is to do with school holidays given that it's falling with the young but still rising with those over 35:


But looking at all of this - I'm not sure that just another two weeks of lockdown will be enough. I feel like we probably need this to last a bit longer in December

Also heard rumours that there will be a full national lockdown for two weeks after Christmas to snuff out any spread from people gathering for Christmas. Basically you'll be allowed to go see your family, go home and lockdown for two weeks.

[Sheilbh]

Mildly obsessed with this map from a (not yet peer-reviewed) paper showing human mobility patterns before and after lockdown - it also goes into the different effects on mobility by local and national lockdown. Scotland's effectively independent already - we only go North of Lancaster, to Holyhead or West of Exeter for holidays

[Valmy]

Well in that case much of the USA is effectively independent as most our country is not a vacation destination. Why that would be a statement of political independence I have no idea.

[Sheilbh]

Well in that case much of the USA is effectively independent as most our country is not a vacation destination. Why that would be a statement of political independence I have no idea.

I just think it's fascinating the lack of connections from England to Scotland - it's not a serious point.

[crazy canuck]

Well in that case much of the USA is effectively independent as most our country is not a vacation destination. Why that would be a statement of political independence I have no idea.

It is an interesting illustration of the lack of travel connection.  Which probably also explains a lot of differences within the US.

[Josquius]

Mildly obsessed with this map from a (not yet peer-reviewed) paper showing human mobility patterns before and after lockdown - it also goes into the different effects on mobility by local and national lockdown. Scotland's effectively independent already - we only go North of Lancaster, to Holyhead or West of Exeter for holidays
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Emo3u-CXMAMDDQY?formmg]

The Northern Irish Death Star fucks Liverpool up.

Also Betweeness is a wonderful word.

Weird on Scotland. Would have thought they'd have just as much with the North East as we do with the south (except maybe York). How did they measure this? Whats it based off? As really weird they've got that Cumbria coast bit down to Lancashire but not much between Cumbria and the NE. I've always maintained under a devolved system in England Cumbria will be with the North East rather than Lancashire.