If/when Russia interferes in 2020 election... are we sure it's to favour Trump?

[Barrister]

Just a thought I've had bouncing around.  You can certainly see the attraction Putin would see in a Trump presidency in 2016.  But you do get the feeling that Puting is perhaps slightly underwhelmed with the response he has seen.  There was no grand re-opening to the West under Trump.  No lifting of sanctions - indeed sanctions have increased.

Depending on who emerges on the Democratic side - might the Russians flip?  I'm particularly thinking of Sanders and his socialism.  He honeymooned in the USSR after all!

Please note I'm not saying Bernie Sanders is a Russian agent or would willingly collude with the Russians - but the Russians seem happy to quietly support their preferred candidate even without any formal understanding or agreement.

And Russian involvement in 2016 seemed just as much about animosity towards Clinton as it was affinity for Trump.

[DGuller]

I doubt Russia would go with anyone else.  Trump is a mother lode even if you assume there was never any intent to collaborate with the Russians.  What Putin wants more than anything else is to cripple the US as much as possible.  If he succeeds in that, many other problems he has will work themselves out.

[Sophie Scholl]

Trump is already a well invested in effort.  Though sanctions might not have gone away, the systematic dismantling of US power and prestige in the global diplomatic community has been a boon amongst other positives for Russia.  I can see China taking up the Democratic contender as a source of investment, but I see zero reason for Russia to stop backing Trump and friends.

[The Brain]

Trump is awesome for Putin. But of course supporting Trump's opponent may still be a good idea since it would compromise the opponent if he/she ends up in the White House. If Trump wins all is well, and if the opponent wins the US still has a president that could be said to have won with Russian help.

[HisMajestyBOB]

But Russia doesn't need to actually help Trump's opponent to get that. They can help Trump and if he still loses, push a disinformation campaign claiming they helped the Dems win the presidency. More than enough Republicans would happily go along with and amplify that narrative, even if false.

[The Brain]

But Russia doesn't need to actually help Trump's opponent to get that. They can help Trump and if he still loses, push a disinformation campaign claiming they helped the Dems win the presidency. More than enough Republicans would happily go along with and amplify that narrative, even if false.

I'm not convinced that a pure post-election disinformation campaign would necessarily fool level heads. A few beans of truth is always good for the brew.

[FunkMonk]

If I were the Russians I would just flood US social media with tons of bullshit that support both sides, sit back, and watch Americans clown on themselves.

I don't think Putin really cares who is President. Just that we continue to divide ourselves and that we pay little to no attention to what they're doing everywhere else.

[Barrister]

If I were the Russians I would just flood US social media with tons of bullshit that support both sides, sit back, and watch Americans clown on themselves.

I don't think Putin really cares who is President. Just that we continue to divide ourselves and that we pay little to no attention to what they're doing everywhere else.

No - it was quite clear Putin did NOT want Hillary to be President, due to her time as Secretary of State.

[Valmy]

If I were the Russians I would just flood US social media with tons of bullshit that support both sides, sit back, and watch Americans clown on themselves.

I don't think Putin really cares who is President. Just that we continue to divide ourselves and that we pay little to no attention to what they're doing everywhere else.

No - it was quite clear Putin did NOT want Hillary to be President, due to her time as Secretary of State.

After she kindly hit a reset button with him to.

[crazy canuck]

But you do get the feeling that Puting is perhaps slightly underwhelmed with the response he has seen. 

No, I certainly don't get that feeling.

NATO weakened.  Check
US turning on its closest allies.  Check
No risk of US intervening in Russian sphere of influence.  Check
Get to laugh every night at the Americans.  Check

What more could he have wanted?

Also, what makes you think that Russia or Putin is in any way a socialist?

[Barrister]

Also, what makes you think that Russia or Putin is in any way a socialist?

Putin is not a socialist.  But he's not afraid to run under a anti-western banner.

Sanders, even after the fall of communism, has still long supported regimes like Cuba and Venezuela.  And he hasn't exactly taken a hard line against Russia (since he's run almost exclusively on domestic issues).


And wat more could Putin have wanted?  Lifting sanctions.  A "peace deal" in Ukraine that gives him international recognition of his control over Crimea.  Putin has done well with Trump, but Trump has been constrained over what he could do on the Russia file.  Perhaps a less obviously compromised US President could give him that.

[dps]

No - it was quite clear Putin did NOT want Hillary to be President, due to her time as Secretary of State.

This.  Without Hillary in the race (I thought that she might try again, but it seems she won't), Russian meddling will probably include some tactics that favor both parties in the general election, even if he does prefer Trump--Putin is smart enough to hedge his bets.

[Camerus]

Another Trump victory would plunge the US into 4 more years of WH, congressional and societal chaos, particularly when contrasted to a Biden candidacy.

That would be a bonanza for Putin.

[Admiral Yi]

I can confidently predict that Putin will never be angling for a centrist to win.

[Razgovory]

Has Putin backed left-wing candidates in Europe?