737 Max grounded after second deadly crash by new airplane

[dps]

FWIW, according to the AP, Ethiopian Airlines has a good reputation and is the largest carrier in Africa.

Also, witnesses said that smoke was coming from the rear of the plane before it crashed.  If that's accurate (granted, a big IF), it would seem to rule out both pilot error and software problems as the cause of the crash.

One thing that I learned from watching Mayday episodes is that witnesses often report that the plane was on fire before the crash, only to turn out to be wrong about it.

Well, I haven't watched Mayday, but I've gotten that same info from other sources, hence the "a big IF" part of my post.

[mongers]

FWIW, according to the AP, Ethiopian Airlines has a good reputation and is the largest carrier in Africa.

Also, witnesses said that smoke was coming from the rear of the plane before it crashed.  If that's accurate (granted, a big IF), it would seem to rule out both pilot error and software problems as the cause of the crash.

One thing that I learned from watching Mayday episodes is that witnesses often report that the plane was on fire before the crash, only to turn out to be wrong about it.

If passenger air travel is so safe, why do apparently so many people watch mayday type programs?   

[Threviel]

In places like Ethiopia, I think the answer is poorly and corruptly. Do you still think I misunderstand?

I now think it goes beyond mere lack of comprehension.

Ie, I'm beyond lack of comprehension and into understanding?

It is a deeply corrupt country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index

It ranks 114th in the world in the corruptions perception index.

Some highlights from the CIA world fact book:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/et.html

"Ethiopia - the second most populous country in Africa - is a one-party state with a planned economy....The state is heavily engaged in the economy. Ongoing infrastructure projects include power production and distribution, roads, rails, airports and industrial parks. Key sectors are state-owned, including telecommunications, banking and insurance, and power distribution. Under Ethiopia's constitution, the state owns all land and provides long-term leases to tenants. Title rights in urban areas, particularly Addis Ababa, are poorly regulated, and subject to corruption."

I was referred to as having "weird racial views" in an earlier thread where I pointed out that Spain and other south and eastern European countries are more corrupt than the UK. I don't really know why it's such a sensitive issue.

[dps]

FWIW, according to the AP, Ethiopian Airlines has a good reputation and is the largest carrier in Africa.

Also, witnesses said that smoke was coming from the rear of the plane before it crashed.  If that's accurate (granted, a big IF), it would seem to rule out both pilot error and software problems as the cause of the crash.

One thing that I learned from watching Mayday episodes is that witnesses often report that the plane was on fire before the crash, only to turn out to be wrong about it.

If passenger air travel is so safe, why do apparently so many people watch mayday type programs?   

For the same reason there are so many videos on YouTube of skateboarders hurting themselves--people are sick, sadistic bastards.

[Syt]

The pre-eminent mind of our age weighs in.

[Valmy]

If there is a stupid opinion to be had the President at least gives it a test drive.

[HVC]

but at least those pilots had full control until they hit the ground

[crazy canuck]

Meh, it is part of his populist act to appeal to a fanciful past when things were more simple and better.

[alfred russel]

The pre-eminent mind of our age weighs in.

I'm just being contrarian and difficult on this point, but if his words are taken at face value they are defensible and not out of line with the stats posted by Syt.

Trump's posted tweets boil down to "all of this great cost yet very little gain". The point about "very little gain" is proven by Syt's chart. An incredibly safe method of travel has become even safer over the past 30 years, but it was so safe to begin with the reduction in risk is miniscule.

The fact that he mentions "very little gain" implies that there has been improvement.

I can't speak to the cost of the automation of aircraft to assess the "very great cost", but costs have skyrocketed. In 1972 you could get a new and equipped 737 for $5.2 million, and a 747 for $24 million.

https://www.flightglobal.com/pdfarchive/view/1972/1972%20-%202020.html

Today the 737 is $89.1 million and a 747 $418.4 million.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273941/prices-of-boeing-aircraft-by-type/

The inflation factor between 1972 and today is about 6, so that doesn't explain the price increase.

[frunk]

I'm just being contrarian and difficult on this point, but if his words are taken at face value they are defensible and not out of line with the stats posted by Syt.

Trump's posted tweets boil down to "all of this great cost yet very little gain". The point about "very little gain" is proven by Syt's chart. An incredibly safe method of travel has become even safer over the past 30 years, but it was so safe to begin with the reduction in risk is miniscule.

The fact that he mentions "very little gain" implies that there has been improvement.

I can't speak to the cost of the automation of aircraft to assess the "very great cost", but costs have skyrocketed. In 1972 you could get a new and equipped 737 for $5.2 million, and a 747 for $24 million.

https://www.flightglobal.com/pdfarchive/view/1972/1972%20-%202020.html

Today the 737 is $89.1 million and a 747 $418.4 million.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273941/prices-of-boeing-aircraft-by-type/

The inflation factor between 1972 and today is about 6, so that doesn't explain the price increase.

Paying a bit more than double to reduce the likelihood of death by three orders of magnitude sounds reasonable.

[alfred russel]

Paying a bit more than double to reduce the likelihood of death by three orders of magnitude sounds reasonable.

That seems like rather soft logic.

If the inflation adjusted cost was $10 billion in 1990 and an average of 6 people were killed, you would be paying in excess of $10 billion to save 4 lives.

The question as a society should be whether that spend / life is best deployed in improved aviation safety or (for example) better road safety, anti smoking programs, etc.

[DGuller]

Depends on the magnitude to begin with.

[grumbler]

Airlines are willing to pay many times the cost of a 1970s airplane not because they are safer (though they are) but because they are an order of magnitude cheaper to operate per passenger-mile.  The procurement + life-cycle costs of a 2000s jet is probably half that of a 1970s jet (just a guess, but a somewhat informed one).  That's why inflation-adjusted ticket prices are lower, even when paying fees to get the same services.

That's come at the cost of time and comfort, but that's not what the POTUS was talking about.

[frunk]

That seems like rather soft logic.

If the inflation adjusted cost was $10 billion in 1990 and an average of 6 people were killed, you would be paying in excess of $10 billion to save 4 lives.

That's not three orders of magnitude, or even close, so I'm not sure what you are talking about.  If you were talking about elevator deaths (one of the safest methods of travel ever created) then you would have a point.

If we were operating on the death rate of 1970 we would have ~22,000 deaths in 2017, instead of the 44 that we actually had.  I'm pretty sure that the airlines made back the extra costs of the airplanes just on the reduced insurance.

[alfred russel]

That's not three orders of magnitude, or even close, so I'm not sure what you are talking about.  If you were talking about elevator deaths (one of the safest methods of travel ever created) then you would have a point.

If we were operating on the death rate of 1970 we would have ~22,000 deaths in 2017, instead of the 44 that we actually had.  I'm pretty sure that the airlines made back the extra costs of the airplanes just on the reduced insurance.

I was using 1990 as the baseline earlier, because almost all the safety improvements came previous to that point and presumably the "computer scientists from MIT" needed to fly the plane in lieu of pilots came later. In 1970 I agree that flying wasn't that safe.

I didn't use 1990 as the cost basis of airlines because i googled for historic prices and the first link was the 1972 price list I linked to.