Las Vegas

[crazy canuck]

No, I've never played craps, but that makes no difference at all.  The theory applies to any game.  Saying that you should "walk away after a string of hot rollers" is the fallacious reasoning.  It's not "hot rollers" that's fallacious, that seems to be just part of the game strategy based on what you described, it's the "string".  It doesn't matter if you had a string of hot rollers or a string of cold rollers, your expectation before the next roller is the same.

There is no fallacy involved in saying you should walk away from a game of chance if you have won a bunch of money.

The fallacy is in saying that every game of chance is the same.  Craps is the only game in the casino which can be played in such a way as to come close to 50%.  Therefore it is the only game in the casino where you have a good chance to break even and if you are lucky enough to hit a hot roller while you are busy breaking even then you can make a lot of money.  If you walk away at that point.

[Admiral Yi]

I have never played craps, but from what you describe, it sounds like for my strategy a betting event on which to put all of your money would be one roller, rather than one roll.

Since it sounds like you won't know how long a roller will last, you can't be sure how much to bet early on to last for exactly one roller. So my strategy may not be implementable for craps, but as long as the house has an edge I think the general rule of betting heavy for a short period of time still holds (if you aren't in it for hours of fun gambling, which of course is a big part of the reason to go to Vegas).

You could follow the "one time" strategy in craps by betting the whole shebang on pass + odds.

[DGuller]

There is no fallacy involved in saying you should walk away from a game of chance if you have won a bunch of money.

There is a fallacy is saying that walking away based on how you did affects your long-run results, and it's called gambler's fallacy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

The fallacy is in saying that every game of chance is the same.  Craps is the only game in the casino which can be played in such a way as to come close to 50%.  Therefore it is the only game in the casino where you have a good chance to break even and if you are lucky enough to hit a hot roller while you are busy breaking even then you can make a lot of money.  If you walk away at that point.

Fundamentally every gambling game with negative expectation is in fact the same.  Close to 50% is still not 50%, and thus is still negative expectation.

[crazy canuck]

I have never played craps, but from what you describe, it sounds like a betting event on which to put all of your money would be one roller, rather than one roll.

Since it sounds like you won't know how long a roller will last, you can't be sure how much to bet early on to last for exactly one roller. So my strategy may not be implementable for craps, but as long as the house has an edge I think the general rule of betting heavy for a short period of time still holds (if you aren't in it for hours of fun gambling, which of course is a big part of the reason to go to Vegas).

Its a little differnent then that.  In craps everything works off multiples of the table minimum limit and so there really isnt any judgment involved in how much the initial bet will be.  The first bet is the table minimum. - say $5.

After the point is hit you can now lay odds on your first pass line bet - a multiple of the first bet.  You then also bet a Come Line bet (also usually at the table minimum).  If the number other then the point or craps is rolled then that Come line bet then gets moved to that number and you add odds to it as well.

The process repeats itself unit either the Point is rolled or the shooter craps out (by rolling a 7).  Also you cannot pick up your chips once the Point is hit until the roller either craps out or hits the point again.

There are lots of other ways to play it that are closer to what you describe but those kinds of bets are what are called exotic bets (as I said high pay and higher risk).  Most Craps players call those sucker bets.