Las Vegas

[crazy canuck]

Max odds all the time?  You don't vary the odds based on the "hotness" of the roller?

No, statistically you get closest to a 50% chance if you play consistently by maxing all the odds of the chips in play.  That is why I always bet via the Come line.  You can get better odds by betting the numbers after the Point through the Come line rather then betting directly.

[Monoriu]

Max odds all the time?  You don't vary the odds based on the "hotness" of the roller?

No, statistically you get closest to a 50% chance if you play consistently by maxing all the odds of the chips in play.  That is why I always bet via the Come line.  You can get better odds by betting the numbers after the Point through the Come line rather then betting directly.

You get even better odds if you don't gamble   

[crazy canuck]

You get even better odds if you don't gamble   
[/quote]

You are in the wrong thread.  We were talking about having fun in Vegas.

[garbon]

You are in the wrong thread.  We were talking about having fun in Vegas.

So why are you talking about gambling then?

[alfred russel]

If you want to beat the house, the best way is to take your entire bankroll and put in on the line in one go. In one spin of the roulette wheel or round of blackjack, the house edge is negligible. Of course--walking into a casino and making just one bet may not be very much fun.

[Admiral Yi]

If you want to beat the house, the best way is to take your entire bankroll and put in on the line in one go. In one spin of the roulette wheel or round of blackjack, the house edge is negligible. Of course--walking into a casino and making just one bet may not be very much fun.

That's not true.  The house edge on one play is exactly the same as on repeated plays.

[DGuller]

If you want to beat the house, the best way is to take your entire bankroll and put in on the line in one go. In one spin of the roulette wheel or round of blackjack, the house edge is negligible. Of course--walking into a casino and making just one bet may not be very much fun.

That's not true.  The house edge on one play is exactly the same as on repeated plays.

I think what AR means is that in just one round, your results are much more determined by luck than by the house edge.  The effect of house edge is very minimal compared to the effect of the luck of the draw.  The more rounds you play, the less luck in your results, and your results approach the expected house take. 

In general, when playing in games with negative expectation, the strategy is to increase your volatility if you can keep all else equal.  When playing games with positive expectation, like when you're a card shark in a poker room, the strategy is to reduce your volatility if you can keep all else equal.

[alfred russel]

If you want to beat the house, the best way is to take your entire bankroll and put in on the line in one go. In one spin of the roulette wheel or round of blackjack, the house edge is negligible. Of course--walking into a casino and making just one bet may not be very much fun.

That's not true.  The house edge on one play is exactly the same as on repeated plays.

I think what AR means is that in just one round, your results are much more determined by luck than by the house edge.  The effect of house edge is very minimal compared to the effect of the luck of the draw.  The more rounds you play, the less luck in your results, and your results approach the expected house take. 

In general, when playing in games with negative expectation, the strategy is to increase your volatility if you can keep all else equal.  When playing games with positive expectation, like when you're a card shark in a poker room, the strategy is to reduce your volatility if you can keep all else equal.

Yes, that is what I was referring to.

[crazy canuck]

If you want to beat the house, the best way is to take your entire bankroll and put in on the line in one go. In one spin of the roulette wheel or round of blackjack, the house edge is negligible. Of course--walking into a casino and making just one bet may not be very much fun.

That's not true.  The house edge on one play is exactly the same as on repeated plays.

I think what AR means is that in just one round, your results are much more determined by luck than by the house edge.  The effect of house edge is very minimal compared to the effect of the luck of the draw.  The more rounds you play, the less luck in your results, and your results approach the expected house take. 

In general, when playing in games with negative expectation, the strategy is to increase your volatility if you can keep all else equal.  When playing games with positive expectation, like when you're a card shark in a poker room, the strategy is to reduce your volatility if you can keep all else equal.

That logic is not as good in the case of craps.  If a player uses a strategy of betting number through the Come line and leveraging those bets then over time their odds come close to 50% which are a lot better then the odds on the first roll.

It may be the only game in the Casino that operates that way.

The mistake most players make is that they step up to the table and place money on exotics (high return, higher risk) bets and soon they are out of money.  Some on the first roll.

If you play craps right and stay in the game long enough you will likely break even and if you have enough discipline to walk away after a string of hot rollers you can make a lot of money at it.

The mistake I always make is going back the next day and giving back my winnings.

[DGuller]

If you play craps right and stay in the game long enough you will likely break even and if you have enough discipline to walk away after a string of hot rollers you can make a lot of money at it.

The mistake I always make is going back the next day and giving back my winnings.

As I said earlier in this thread, deciding to keep playing based on "hotness" or how much you're up/down has no bearing on your winnings.  The concept of "hotness" is one of the fallacious logical conclusions that human brain creates to try to explain the inherently random events, because our brains are not designed to work with randomness.

[Admiral Yi]

As I said earlier in this thread, deciding to keep playing based on "hotness" or how much you're up/down has no bearing on your winnings.  The concept of "hotness" is one of the fallacious logical conclusions that human brain creates to try to explain the inherently random events, because our brains are not designed to work with randomness.

Hey knucklehead, he's talking ex post.

[crazy canuck]

As I said earlier in this thread, deciding to keep playing based on "hotness" or how much you're up/down has no bearing on your winnings.  The concept of "hotness" is one of the fallacious logical conclusions that human brain creates to try to explain the inherently random events, because our brains are not designed to work with randomness.

You have obviously never played craps.

Once the point is hit you are in the game.  You cannot simply pick up your chips and walk away until that roller craps out.  If the roller keeps rolling for 15-20 minutes you will make a lot of money.  That is called a "hot" roller.  If you are smart you will take all that money and leave the table.  If you have bet correctly you will likey be up several thousand dollars.

Often though that does not occur and a roller will only roll for a short amount of time before craping out and passing the dice to the next roller.  that is when it is most important to make sure you maximize our odds in the manner described.  On an even distribution of good and bad rolls your odds will come close to 50%.  It is the only game in the Casino where you can do this.

Either way, if someone approaches the craps table with the thought of only betting on one roll their odds will be considerably less then if they play the table and increase their odds.

[DGuller]

As I said earlier in this thread, deciding to keep playing based on "hotness" or how much you're up/down has no bearing on your winnings.  The concept of "hotness" is one of the fallacious logical conclusions that human brain creates to try to explain the inherently random events, because our brains are not designed to work with randomness.

You have obviously never played craps.

Once the point is hit you are in the game.  You cannot simply pick up your chips and walk away until that roller craps out.  If the roller keeps rolling for 15-20 minutes you will make a lot of money.  That is called a "hot" roller.  If you are smart you will take all that money and leave the table.  If you have bet correctly you will likey be up several thousand dollars.

Often though that does not occur and a roller will only roll for a short amount of time before craping out and passing the dice to the next roller.  that is when it is most important to make sure you maximize our odds in the manner described.  On an even distribution of good and bad rolls your odds will come close to 50%.  It is the only game in the Casino where you can do this.

Either way, if someone approaches the craps table with the thought of only betting on one roll their odds will be considerably less then if they play the table and increase their odds.

No, I've never played craps, but that makes no difference at all.  The theory applies to any game.  Saying that you should "walk away after a string of hot rollers" is the fallacious reasoning.  It's not "hot rollers" that's fallacious, that seems to be just part of the game strategy based on what you described, it's the "string".  It doesn't matter if you had a string of hot rollers or a string of cold rollers, your expectation before the next roller is the same.

[DGuller]

As I said earlier in this thread, deciding to keep playing based on "hotness" or how much you're up/down has no bearing on your winnings.  The concept of "hotness" is one of the fallacious logical conclusions that human brain creates to try to explain the inherently random events, because our brains are not designed to work with randomness.

Hey knucklehead, he's talking ex post.

Results-oriented thinking is another gambling fallacy.

[alfred russel]

As I said earlier in this thread, deciding to keep playing based on "hotness" or how much you're up/down has no bearing on your winnings.  The concept of "hotness" is one of the fallacious logical conclusions that human brain creates to try to explain the inherently random events, because our brains are not designed to work with randomness.

You have obviously never played craps.

Once the point is hit you are in the game.  You cannot simply pick up your chips and walk away until that roller craps out.  If the roller keeps rolling for 15-20 minutes you will make a lot of money.  That is called a "hot" roller.  If you are smart you will take all that money and leave the table.  If you have bet correctly you will likey be up several thousand dollars.

Often though that does not occur and a roller will only roll for a short amount of time before craping out and passing the dice to the next roller.  that is when it is most important to make sure you maximize our odds in the manner described.  On an even distribution of good and bad rolls your odds will come close to 50%.  It is the only game in the Casino where you can do this.

Either way, if someone approaches the craps table with the thought of only betting on one roll their odds will be considerably less then if they play the table and increase their odds.

I have never played craps, but from what you describe, it sounds like a betting event on which to put all of your money would be one roller, rather than one roll.

Since it sounds like you won't know how long a roller will last, you can't be sure how much to bet early on to last for exactly one roller. So my strategy may not be implementable for craps, but as long as the house has an edge I think the general rule of betting heavy for a short period of time still holds (if you aren't in it for hours of fun gambling, which of course is a big part of the reason to go to Vegas).