The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[Iormlund]

When did the separatists use violence?

They sieged police forces during a judicial raid for hours. Destroyed 3 vehicles and stole the weapons inside (assault rifles). This incident is why 2 of the leaders are in jail now (only ones so far).

There were minor encounters with police forces during the referendum and as a result a handful stand accused of assaulting a police officer.

Finally they coerced businesses and workers during the strike, and forcefully blocked roads.

[Valmy]

The war was declared because of Fort Sumter. Not sure what is dubious about that.

[Eddie Teach]

It's located in South Carolina.

[derspiess]

Not evacuating Fort Sumter was an act of military aggression by the North.  Or something. 

[Barrister]

So, absent Fort Sumter, Lincoln was just going to let the south walk?

[derspiess]

So, absent Fort Sumter, Lincoln was just going to let the south walk?

No, but the Union needed time to get its shit together and muster/train regiments.

[celedhring]

Leave it to a bunch of Americans to turn talk of secession into talk of the American Civil War 

Among the pack of measures just announced by the Spanish president is an unexpected dissolution of the Catalan Parliament and elections on December 21th - the earliest legal time possible. This limits the intervention to less than 2 months. I'm not sure they'll be able to stabilize the situation in time for a "normal" election.

But this limits the timeframe of the intervention significantly. I like it.

[Iormlund]

The only explanation I can come up with is they hope moderate nationalists are coming to their senses and want to limit the economic damage.

[celedhring]

The only explanation I can come up with is they hope moderate nationalists are coming to their senses and want to limit the economic damage.

There's a bunch of moderates willing to vote for an "okay, let's not get carried away" nationalist party, but there's no viable party with this profile right now. All historic nationalist parties have embraced separatism.

[garbon]

Leave it to a bunch of Americans to turn talk of secession into talk of the American Civil War 

Well in some sense you can call BB an American (norteamericano) but not really accurate for this discussion.

[Barrister]

So what happens next?  Will Spain be able to hold elections?  Will the nationalist parties participate in elections?

[Iormlund]

Why wouldn't they?

Spain has only outlawed one party in its recent history, because it was the political wing of ETA. There are so far no deaths in this sad affaire.

[Barrister]

Why wouldn't they?

Spain has only outlawed one party in its recent history, because it was the political wing of ETA. There are so far no deaths in this sad affaire.

Well following the separatist line of thinking...

They're independent.  What Madrid says is now immaterial.  The existing Catalan government can announce that they are still the Catalan government, and they will hold elections on their own timetable.

[Iormlund]

The existing Catalan government will be in jail by then.

[celedhring]

Why wouldn't they?

Spain has only outlawed one party in its recent history, because it was the political wing of ETA. There are so far no deaths in this sad affaire.

According to Spanish law, parties have 20 days from now to register their candidacies. So the separatists have little time to decide. I think they'll boycott them because it would be a tacit admission that the UDI is worth nothing. If they boycott them we'll enter the "parallel governments" scenario, which is a really shitty one. It's a risky gamble, although in the end Madrid always wins - the loyalist Generalitat would be the only one with the capabilities to exert actual power.

At the end of the day, though, I agree on the principle of the thing: "we are only here to purge the rebels and bring the Generalitat back to lawful government. Once we're done, it goes back to the Catalans".