The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[Habbaku]

Improperly amended/added? 

[CountDeMoney]

It should be interesting to watch the Spanish government rolling in the tank, and crushing the separatist's barricade.

[Ed Anger]

One whole tank?

[CountDeMoney]

[Ed Anger]

This thread just got awesome.

[celedhring]

Catalan Parliament will meet Thursday morning (one day before the intervention comes into effect) to debate their actions.

Scenarios are:

- UDI: The Generalitat no longer recognizes Madrid's authority to intervene it, and prepares to defend the regional government. Low-intensity Civil War ensues. All fun and giggles. However, Madrid wins at the end. The whole thing only serves to sow the seeds of discord for another generation. It's the "die to fight another day" option.

- UDI + Elections triggered under Spanish law: The Schrödinger option. Madrid would still intervene the autonomy since they issued an UDI, but it would be difficult to anull the elections if they are triggered using the existing Spanish law. This would give separatists control of the election timing while they prop up conflict in the streets. They could call them for mid-December and fight the intervention for a limited time, and get a renewed mandate in a "hot" election. One thing: the ruling moderate separatist party would be annihilated by the radicals in an election.

- Elections: No UDI and a regional election (the separatists would probably call them "Constituent", but who cares) would make it politically more difficult for Madrid to approve the intervention. The Generalitat could then face the election in full control of the regional power. However, the separatist radicals would certainly disapprove of a "surrender". As above, the ruling moderate party would be electorally annihilated.

[celedhring]

Meanwhile, the number of companies that have moved their HQ away from Catalonia now totals 30% of the region's GDP. In most cases this is just symbolic - although a Catalan Republic would now be born with a much weakened corporate tax base - but the talks of an investment freeze are pretty deafening too. Retail and tourism are reporting a contraction of 20-30% compared to same month last year.

Time plays against separatists, the whole thing can easily collapse after, say, 3 consecutive months of job losses and an official recession. So my belief is that they will try to force an election ASAP.

[celedhring]

Improperly amended/added? 

It has never been deployed, or clarified via legislation. So depending on whom you ask it allows Madrid to do anything it wants or nearly nothing. The thing will end up in the Constitutional Court, who going by usual timings won't rule after the whole thing has come and gone (the intervention will last 6 months tops).

[Josquius]

Is this the shit keeping the euro (and chf) low where the pound should be losing against it?

[Caliga]

One whole tank?

Spain might still have the tanks they used in 'Patton' on hand.

[celedhring]

We have 300-something Leo 2. I think that's more than even Germany currently has. Readiness is really suspect, though.

"Spanish tanks entering Barcelona" is one of the most recurrent fantasies of Catalan nationalism.

[Duque de Bragança]

We have 300-something Leo 2. I think that's more than even Germany currently has. Readiness is really suspect, though.

"Spanish tanks entering Barcelona" is one of the most recurrent fantasies of Catalan nationalism.

No Fifth Column? No Moors? No Requetés? Disappointed.

[derspiess]

We have 300-something Leo 2. I think that's more than even Germany currently has. Readiness is really suspect, though.

"Spanish tanks entering Barcelona" is one of the most recurrent fantasies of Catalan nationalism.

I hear Putin has offered T-26 tanks to Catalan separatists, but is demanding payment in gold

[crazy canuck]

It has never been deployed, or clarified via legislation. So depending on whom you ask it allows Madrid to do anything it wants or nearly nothing. The thing will end up in the Constitutional Court, who going by usual timings won't rule after the whole thing has come and gone (the intervention will last 6 months tops).

The clause is so ambiguous, the drafters of the constitution must not have thought it would ever be used.  More of a tip of the hat to the supremacy of a national government then a procedural remedy to interfere with regional government.  And what about the bilateral agreements that were made with Catalonia to give them further autonomy since the constitution came into effect?

As you say, the constitutional court is going to have some difficult times ahead.

[celedhring]

We have 300-something Leo 2. I think that's more than even Germany currently has. Readiness is really suspect, though.

"Spanish tanks entering Barcelona" is one of the most recurrent fantasies of Catalan nationalism.

I hear Putin has offered T-26 tanks to Catalan separatists, but is demanding payment in gold

This does really feel like the 1930s sometimes. Hopefully it won't end so badly.