The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[chipwich]

Is there really no Spanish law against sedition or insurrection?

[celedhring]

There is, but it hasn't been deployed so far.

The Spanish gov seems to aim to jail as few people as possible, and fine and disqualify from office the rest.

[celedhring]

If anybody harbored doubts over which side to pick, Assange has come out in force in favor of the separatists. 

(and no, the Spanish gov is far from perfect, but it's definitely the lesser of the two evils here).

[celedhring]

Today we had a separatist mega-demo in Barcelona for Catalonia's national day. It's been a success (350,000 - 1,000,000 people depending on whom you chose to believe) but they fell short of the attendances of similar demos in these past years.

Key day is going to be tomorrow. The Catalan Supreme Court has summoned the heads of the national and regional polices to consult with them, with a mandate to stop the referendum. If the Catalan regional police - which are under the authority of the Catalan regional government - signals that it won't follow the court's mandate, we will fully enter "party like it's the 1930s" territory.

[The Brain]

Send in the Cossacks.

[Solmyr]

Send in the CossacksTercios.

[Drakken]

Send in the Cossacks International Brigades.

[Valmy]

I mean at the end of the day if the Catalans are willing to sacrifice everything for independence there is nothing anybody would do about it. I mean it is not like Spain would ever seriously send in the troops or something unless some kind of civil war breaks out there.

I just find the justification weak and I don't see how it benefits the individual citizens of Catalonia at all.

Just like Brexit and Trump there is only so much that can be done when a population narrowly votes for suicide.

[Drakken]

I mean at the end of the day if the Catalans are willing to sacrifice everything for independence there is nothing anybody would do about it. I mean it is not like Spain would ever seriously send in the troops or something unless some kind of civil war breaks out there.

Uh... don't give the Spaniards any ideas.

[Valmy]

Uh...

I mean if loyalists inside Catalonia start getting slapped down the ultra-nationalists. The ultra-nationalists would have to start it. Otherwise I cannot imagine Madrid having the political capital to do it even if they wanted to (which they probably do not).

[frunk]

Send in the Cossacks International Brigades. Clowns, oh they're already here.

Send in the Clowns

[Drakken]

I mean if loyalists inside Catalonia start getting slapped down the ultra-nationalists. The ultra-nationalists would have to start it. Otherwise I cannot imagine Madrid having the political capital to do it even if they wanted to (which they probably do not).

You know we are talking of the same country where part of the Spanish Armed Forces invaded the Cortes in an attempted military putsch in 1981, right? May look quaint, but let's remember that the Third Military Region in Valencia mutined in support of the coup, and actual tanks were in the streets of Valencia to back up the putsch. Real, military might. It took the King to directly order the mutineers to stand down and give democracy a chance to prevent a new civil war because Juan Carlos, as Commander-in-Chief, was the only person they would accept taking orders from.

That was merely 35 years ago, a mere generation. So... yeah.

I cannot see how the Catalonian government wanting to go ahead with a referendum clearly trumpeted as both illegitimate and illegal both by all three central branches of government - the Spanish Supreme Court, the Cortes, and the Spanish government - can lead to them suddenly throwing their hands in the air if the Catalonians keep insisting. The indissoluble character of the unity of the Spanish Kingdom in the damn Constitution is in black and white, for crying out loud. If Catalonia goes, so will all other Spanish regions, like say... the Basque region (ETA-Batasuna, remember?).

This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous -  it gives a legal and constitutional framework to keep a seceding body in by use of force. We are entering brinksmanship territory now, and a constitutional crisis. I can totally see the Spanish government send troops there if Catalonia really insists in defying the government. This, while considering that Spain has still not even begun to make peace with its Civil War history yet, and that it is still taboo to discuss the legacy of the Franco regime. And there's a reason why...

[The Larch]

We have, thankfully, come a long way since 1981, and the armed forces of today don't look or act at all like the ones from back then. Use of military force is beyond the question.

[Drakken]

We have, thankfully, come a long way since 1981, and the armed forces of today don't look or act at all like the ones from back then. Use of military force is beyond the question.

I don't know. The more the Catalonian government insists in being pig-headed and defiant, the bigger the crisis is growing, and that's when it gets slippery.

I really hope you are right, and maybe you are. I won't hide it is getting worrying - and it should be for the Catalonia population.

[Valmy]

This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous

I don't think it is actually either of those things at all and I think you are being paranoid. The fact you are quoting ancient history that the locals think is absurd should calm you.

I think if they had an overwhelming democratic mandate there would be very little Madrid would do to stop them. Especially if they had legitimate grievances that people elsewhere in Spain agreed with. The fact they have no such thing and instead are relying on legal tricks and smoke and mirrors and citing the acts of a long dead dictator (and absolute monarchies before that) as their justification is what makes this potentially dangerous.

Of course even if they did go peacefully and legally it will be bad for the Catalonian population. They have nothing to gain from this besides a shrinking economy and reduced standard of living. But I don't think it will be violent unless it breaks out inside Catalonia.