The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[derspiess]

This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous

I don't think it is actually either of those things at all and I think you are being paranoid. The fact you are quoting ancient history that the locals think is absurd should calm you.

I think if they had an overwhelming democratic mandate there would be very little Madrid would do to stop them. Especially if they had legitimate grievances that people elsewhere in Spain agreed with. The fact they have no such thing and instead are relying on legal tricks and smoke and mirrors and citing the acts of a long dead dictator (and absolute monarchies before that) as their justification is what makes this potentially dangerous.

Of course even if they did go peacefully and legally it will be bad for the Catalonian population. They have nothing to gain from this besides a shrinking economy and reduced standard of living. But I don't think it will be violent unless it breaks out inside Catalonia.

How would this reduce the Catalonian standard of living?

[The Brain]

This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous

I don't think it is actually either of those things at all and I think you are being paranoid. The fact you are quoting ancient history that the locals think is absurd should calm you.

I think if they had an overwhelming democratic mandate there would be very little Madrid would do to stop them. Especially if they had legitimate grievances that people elsewhere in Spain agreed with. The fact they have no such thing and instead are relying on legal tricks and smoke and mirrors and citing the acts of a long dead dictator (and absolute monarchies before that) as their justification is what makes this potentially dangerous.

Of course even if they did go peacefully and legally it will be bad for the Catalonian population. They have nothing to gain from this besides a shrinking economy and reduced standard of living. But I don't think it will be violent unless it breaks out inside Catalonia.

How would this reduce the Catalonian standard of living?

Leaving the EU probably wouldn't help business.

[Iormlund]

We have, thankfully, come a long way since 1981, and the armed forces of today don't look or act at all like the ones from back then. Use of military force is beyond the question.

I don't know. The more the Catalonian government insists in being pig-headed and defiant, the bigger the crisis is growing, and that's when it gets slippery.

I really hope you are right, and maybe you are. I won't hide it is getting worrying - and it should be for the Catalonia population.

We went over this at the start of the thread. There's a whole lot of things that Madrid can do before sending in the tanks. They can issue arrest warrants for those caught in illegal acts, and if those are not followed by the regional police they'll have grounds to freeze money transfers (de facto suspending autonomy).

[derspiess]

This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous

I don't think it is actually either of those things at all and I think you are being paranoid. The fact you are quoting ancient history that the locals think is absurd should calm you.

I think if they had an overwhelming democratic mandate there would be very little Madrid would do to stop them. Especially if they had legitimate grievances that people elsewhere in Spain agreed with. The fact they have no such thing and instead are relying on legal tricks and smoke and mirrors and citing the acts of a long dead dictator (and absolute monarchies before that) as their justification is what makes this potentially dangerous.

Of course even if they did go peacefully and legally it will be bad for the Catalonian population. They have nothing to gain from this besides a shrinking economy and reduced standard of living. But I don't think it will be violent unless it breaks out inside Catalonia.

How would this reduce the Catalonian standard of living?

Leaving the EU probably wouldn't help business.

What if they got back in the EU?

[celedhring]

We wouldn't get back into the EU anytime soon. If only per encourager les autres. Spain has veto, too.

[Valmy]

What if they got back in the EU?

For somebody who is so anti-EU you sure know very little about it

Every country has a hard veto so they would need Spain (and everybody else) to support their secession if they want to get back in. And adding more bureaucracy and international borders is generally just bad for business.

[The Brain]

This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous

I don't think it is actually either of those things at all and I think you are being paranoid. The fact you are quoting ancient history that the locals think is absurd should calm you.

I think if they had an overwhelming democratic mandate there would be very little Madrid would do to stop them. Especially if they had legitimate grievances that people elsewhere in Spain agreed with. The fact they have no such thing and instead are relying on legal tricks and smoke and mirrors and citing the acts of a long dead dictator (and absolute monarchies before that) as their justification is what makes this potentially dangerous.

Of course even if they did go peacefully and legally it will be bad for the Catalonian population. They have nothing to gain from this besides a shrinking economy and reduced standard of living. But I don't think it will be violent unless it breaks out inside Catalonia.

How would this reduce the Catalonian standard of living?

Leaving the EU probably wouldn't help business.

What if they got back in the EU?

At best you're looking at years in the wilderness. How many businesses in Catalonia will move to within the EU?

[The Brain]

AFAIK there'd be no exit negotiations á la Brexit since they don't exit the EU like a member state would, they simply exit by no longer being part of Spain. I don't see how they could seriously negotiate with Catalonia until it is sovereign. As soon as the EU recognizes an independent Catalonia they are out instantly. Lots of regulation will just evaporate making some sectors (that are heavily regulated and depend on cross-border activity) no longer viable.

[Zanza]

There is precedent: when Algeria became independent they immediately ceased to be part of the EEC. The opposite happened when West Germany annexed East Germany.

[derspiess]

For somebody who is so anti-EU you sure know very little about it

Back off, bird killer

[The Minsky Moment]

We wouldn't get back into the EU anytime soon. If only per encourager les autres. Spain has veto, too.

And yet taking a hardline on Catexit would be kind of cutting the nose to spite the face.
I would assume that an independent Catalonia would port over most existing EU law and regs to national law, and immediately seek EEA status.  Does that require unanimous consent from every EU state?  In any case, hard to think of a reasoned basis for refusing.
Once they're in EFTA/EEA seems to me full EU membership would be just a matter of time.

[dps]

Use of military force is beyond the question.

If that's the case, you probably ought to just disband your military and save the money.

[celedhring]

If the only way to keep Catalonia part of Spain is through the force of arms, then Catalonia won't be a part of Spain anymore. Armed intervention would be politically untenable.

As said though, there's many ways to go before that becomes the only resort. Today the Catalan regional police force has signaled that it would abide by the Court's instructions to stop the referendum, so any kind of full out rebellion is already dead in the water.

[Valmy]

Probably just as well if the opposition is boycotting.

[Zanza]

seek EEA status.  Does that require unanimous consent from every EU state?  In any case, hard to think of a reasoned basis for refusing.
Once they're in EFTA/EEA seems to me full EU membership would be just a matter of time.

Croatia is a full EU member but only a provisional EEA member.