Trains, Banks and Public/Private Ownership - Prev.Predict UK Gen.Election Result

[Zanza]

I am actually a bit conflicted here.  If UK politics is in a mess, does that mean they can't proceed with the Brexit negotiations and I get to keep my UK + EU passport for a little while longer?

I read that it is unlikely the EU would agree to a longer time period for negotiations. It weighs down their own political projects, especially now that Macron and Merkel might want to try to reform the Eurozone.

I think this election result (less time, wafer-thin Tory majority which means the most extreme Brexiteers must be heard, maybe even a new campaign soon) can only mean "no deal".

[garbon]

Do you mean plurality, Z? There isn't a Tory majority.

[garbon]

Apparently, Zac Goldsmith got his seat back.

[The Brain]

The island appears to be ripe for invasion. Do we know any authoritarian magnate with huge estates in Normandy?

[garbon]

http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-election-ends-in-hung-parliament/

Theresa May under pressure as UK returns a hung parliament

Britain wakes up Friday morning more divided and uncertain about its future than anyone thought possible.

A general election that was supposed to settle political and constitutional questions thrown up by Britain's exit from the European Union failed — answering none, raising more and leaving no party with a majority in parliament.

From a position of relative strength, dominating a compliant parliament which had accepted Brexit, Theresa May is now struggling to cling on to her job, unsure whether she will even be able to form a minority government.

After a night of political drama which saw Labour's vote share surge by 10 points, halving the 2010 deficit, three things now seem certain: May is mortally wounded; Jeremy Corbyn is safe as Labour party leader for as long as he wants; and Britain is in for a prolonged period of political instability which may only be solved by a second general election.

If Brussels had come round to the prospect of an unyielding two-year Brexit negotiation under May — grating in its parochialism maybe, but at least grown up — they now face the nightmare prospect of a new partner across the table or a weakened May beholden to her backbenchers and a small retinue of Northern Irish MPs.

A hung parliament — in which no single party commands a majority — is certain. Her future as prime minister hangs by a thread. She could be gone by the end of the day. A second general election could be called within months — taking place as early as August. Brexit is also now up in the air — as even David Davis admitted.

The Brexit Secretary told Sky News at 2.30am that the election was, in part, about getting a mandate for "the sort of Brexit we want." It was also designed to give the government more time to complete the process by ensuring that the incoming administration would have a clear five years before having to call an election.

He suggested the U.K. government may have lost a mandate to exit customs union and single market. "[Our manifesto] said we wanted to leave the customs union and the single market, but get access to them. That's what it was about, that's what we put in front of the British people, we'll see by tomorrow whether they've accepted that or not," he said.

Nigel Farage was quick to warn that he would re-enter the political fray if Brexit was softened. "We may well be looking down the barrel of a second referendum."

The Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland — potential king-makers if the Tories are to remain in power — will look to soften Brexit around the edges, particularly in order to ensure there is no threat to the soft border with the Republic of Ireland, so crucial for the region's economic security.

...

[Josquius]

East Fife in Scotland decided by 2 votes. Ouch.

A few around Glasgow where the snp only squeezed in too. So close to being much worse for them

[Agelastus]

Odd, because it's really on a knife edge now, the three likely outcome are all still possible and just a handful of votes will swing it either way.

Oh and goodnight.

Well, YouGov's model seems to have broken down a little after I went to bed (actually, I already new that - but the problems with Scotland looked like being balanced by an error the other way in England and Wales.)

So I once again proved that I really can't tell how a British political night is going (I remember saying the EU referendum was still in doubt almost up to the final results coming out that tipped it over the line.)

Next election in November 

Possibly even earlier - I've already seen some suggestions of August online. Can they wait until November with Article 50 triggered and the 2 year deadline looming?)

I'll say one thing for Corbyn he's a fine campaigner. But then he is a figure from the past and British politicians used to know how to place an appealing offering before the electorate.

He produced the type of "give-away, something for everyone" manifesto that I hoped had finally been killed off following the problems that have followed parties winning with them in the past. The electorate basically proved that a bribe still works, regardless of the cost a few years down the line.

Although the problem wasn't so much Labour's manifesto as the Tories combined disastrous manifesto and campaign; looking at the small turnout increase of 2.3% combined with the apparent large increase in youth/young person turnout I think there's a fair chance the Tories campaign and manifesto caused a chunk of their vote to stay at home.

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As for the mathematics?

650 MPs minus the Speaker and his deputies (who should follow Denison's rule if called to vote and thus shouldn't vote "yes" in a no-confidence vote or in general in any votes unless they are tied) minus Sinn Fein (who refuse to represent their constituents in Westminster) gives an effective requirement for a majority of [650-4-7]/2 = 320 seats.

Assuming the remaining four seats declare as one would expect (3 for Tory, and, given the number of recounts, 1 for Labour) that puts the Tories on 318 (minus speaker and Deputy to make 316). Although Sylvia Hermon probably wouldn't provide "confidence and supply" to the Tories given the circumstances of how she became independent, the DUP probably would.

Which makes the talk this morning from certain people on the left regarding Corbyn going to the Queen with a "progressive alliance" government fairly delusional as they simply don't have the votes to survive a no-confidence motion in parliament, even if the DUP abstain.

But that of course leads on to another problem - the Tories can't allow Theresa May to lead them into another election, but ditching her immediately leaves no-one to talk to the EU in 11 days (she'd still be acting PM even while a leadership contest was being fought, but that's hardly the right position to be in when the talks start from either Britain or the EU's perspective.)

Of course, her putative successor would have no time to come up with his own Brexit strategy and stance either since Article 50 has already been triggered, so May's existing decisions would still be influencing the negotiations even after her departure - so maybe it wouldn't matter if the discussions were opened by a "lame duck" PM.

Anyway, although Boris is staying quiet it does seem likely that this may be his chance to lead the party and country; although in some ways this could be "God Help Us" as he's competent enough only when he doesn't open his mouth and let his wit get the better of his common sense.

Edit: Added in the subtraction of the two seats of the Tory Speaker and Deputy Speaker.

[Agelastus]

East Fife in Scotland decided by 2 votes. Ouch.

A few around Glasgow where the snp only squeezed in too. So close to being much worse for them

I guess that counts as the seat the exit poll got wrong in Scotland then - and I don't think it can be blamed for that.

"Ouch" indeed.

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And as an addendum to my previous post it sounds like the DUP may not be willing to "play ball" with Theresa May - whether that's a "we'll work with a different Tory to May", an "offer me a good deal" or a "declaration of neutrality" position is still unknown.

[Agelastus]

Fascinating; no-one at the BBC has noticed that my local coverage (on now) has the wrong subtitle feed.

If you believe the subtitles they're talking to someone about social care in Saffron Walden - while they're actually talking to a UKIP guy in Huntingdon.

[Josquius]

Doing the maths it's not so great as it first seemed. A ConDup (conned up. Geddit?) coalition will have a majority.
Oh well.

Seriously NI. WTF. The young didn't vote there or something?

[Agelastus]

Doing the maths it's not so great as it first seemed. A ConDup (conned up. Geddit?) coalition will have a majority.
Oh well.

Seriously NI. WTF. The young didn't vote there or something?

Turnout looks about 7% up in Northern Ireland - with the result being that the SDLP (Labour's traditional allies) and the UUP (the closest to the Tories) were squeezed out of existence.

Also I'd guess part of the problem for the SNP is that turnout's actually down in Scotland.

[Liep]

At least someone had some fun

[Tamas]

Looks like May has struck a deal with the Unionists (I assume that's who DUP are).

Does that mean a soft Brexit then? Or DUP is ok with border checks and customs toward Ireland n' stuff?

[Agelastus]

Looks like May has struck a deal with the Unionists (I assume that's who DUP are).

Does that mean a soft Brexit then? Or DUP is ok with border checks and customs toward Ireland n' stuff?

DUP will want assurances about the NI border staying open, and no deal seems to have been reached yet (which given the timeframe is not surprising - the DUP are meeting after May plans to go to the Queen); however, conversely, even above the Tories they are the party least likely to work with Corbyn due to his views on the IRA etc.

Although it wasn't the DUP (who were insurgents against the "official" Unionist party originally) before the 1970s Unionist MPs took the "Conservative and Unionist" whip.

[Josquius]

Hopefully this means the Swiss (free movement of people though customs controls)  or Norwegian path is open to us.