French Right and Centre Primary Election 1st round

Started by Duque de Bragança, November 20, 2016, 01:22:00 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Choose your anti-Flanby

3 (33.3%)
2 (22.2%)
1 (11.1%)
1 (11.1%)
0 (0%)
2 (22.2%)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: November 21, 2016, 01:22:00 PM

Duque de Bragança

Hollande can still participate in the left primary.

alfred russel

I saw some analysis that if it comes down to Le Pen vs. Fillon, Fillon wins easily, but if it is Le Pen vs someone of the center left, Le Pen will be viable. Does that seem reasonable?
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Maladict

Quote from: alfred russel on November 28, 2016, 12:15:07 PM
I saw some analysis that if it comes down to Le Pen vs. Fillon, Fillon wins easily, but if it is Le Pen vs someone of the center left, Le Pen will be viable. Does that seem reasonable?

Does it seem reasonable to take political polls and analysis seriously these days? No, not really.

Duque de Bragança

Quote from: viper37 on November 28, 2016, 10:41:04 AM


Actually, aside the first year where he scrapped any chance of making the economy better, I think Hollande hasn't been so bad for the French.

Toi, il te faut vraiment l'offre combinée pour le Québec Juppé + Flanby, si tu les aimes tant que ça.  :D

viper37

Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 28, 2016, 12:51:17 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 28, 2016, 10:41:04 AM


Actually, aside the first year where he scrapped any chance of making the economy better, I think Hollande hasn't been so bad for the French.

Toi, il te faut vraiment l'offre combinée pour le Québec Juppé + Flanby, si tu les aimes tant que ça.  :D

Non, j'ai eu assez de Pauline Marois, merci.
C'est juste que comparé à El-Chi et Sarko, je trouvais Hollande presque présentable.  ;)
Pas d'histoires de financement illégal ou de corruption, capable de reconnaitre ses erreurs... Bon, ok, je le prendrais par dessus Jean-François Lisée ou Philippe Couillard, mais uniquement parce que je suis désespéré, hein!
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

Duque de Bragança

Flanby est encore au pouvoir, les scandales apparaîtront quand le PS n'aura plus le pouvoir.
Reconnaître ses erreurs ? Il prétend avoir redressé le pays et la situation !  :lol:

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: alfred russel on November 28, 2016, 12:15:07 PM
I saw some analysis that if it comes down to Le Pen vs. Fillon, Fillon wins easily, but if it is Le Pen vs someone of the center left, Le Pen will be viable. Does that seem reasonable?

Yes - the left will join with conservatives in the hour of need to defeat the greater evil, the conservatives will stick with their tribe above all.
Just like here in the USA #NeverTrump = 0
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Richard Hakluyt

This wiki entry records the results of various opinion polls :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Le Pen is handily beat by another candidate from the right, but has a chance of winning against an opponent from the left.


Richard Hakluyt

Fillon is suggesting some pretty disturbing changes though, 500k cut in civil servant numbers and a longer working week. This will surely help Le Pen.

Duque de Bragança

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 29, 2016, 02:59:07 AM
Fillon is suggesting some pretty disturbing changes though, 500k cut in civil servant numbers and a longer working week. This will surely help Le Pen.

Not disturbing, just unrealistic the way civil servant unions control or at least can paralyse the country. Juppé only went for 200k IIRC.
Of course, civil servants numbers can be cut just by not replacing those who retire but 500,000?  :hmm:

As for Le Pen, more identity politics as a diversion for Hollande's failures will do that no matter what.
The only civil servants voting in significant numbers for Le Pen are in the army, police and gendarmerie, no surprise.

viper37

Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 28, 2016, 02:13:10 PM
Flanby est encore au pouvoir, les scandales apparaîtront quand le PS n'aura plus le pouvoir.
Vous êtes si patient avec politiciens?  Oh my... :D

Quote
Reconnaître ses erreurs ? Il prétend avoir redressé le pays et la situation !  :lol:
Bien, après avoir mis la France à genoux, il lui a fait relevé une jambe.  En général, les politiciens de gauche mettent leur pays à genoux et prétendent simplement que nous sommes mieux ainsi.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

derspiess

So I'm hearing this Fillon feller is more conservative than Sarko was.  Is that correct?
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

viper37

Quote from: derspiess on November 29, 2016, 09:34:14 AM
So I'm hearing this Fillon feller is more conservative than Sarko was.  Is that correct?
In his political campaign, yes, it appears to be so.  That remain to be seen how far he can go or is even willing to go once President.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

Duque de Bragança

Quote from: viper37 on November 29, 2016, 09:12:22 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 28, 2016, 02:13:10 PM
Flanby est encore au pouvoir, les scandales apparaîtront quand le PS n'aura plus le pouvoir.
Vous êtes si patient avec politiciens?  Oh my... :D

Quote
Reconnaître ses erreurs ? Il prétend avoir redressé le pays et la situation !  :lol:
Bien, après avoir mis la France à genoux, il lui a fait relevé une jambe.  En général, les politiciens de gauche mettent leur pays à genoux et prétendent simplement que nous sommes mieux ainsi.

Je ne suis pas très patient avec les politiques mais les juges le sont. Disons que le parquet n'est pas tout à fait indépendant du pouvoir politique. ;)

La France était déjà en piètre position avant, mais Flanby n'a fait qu'aggraver la situation ou entreprendre des réformes symboliques nullement décisives.


Duque de Bragança

Well, it's official: Hollande won't seek reelection next year. The PS primary is in January. Probably more comical than the right and centre primary. :)