What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Syt]

Varieties of Democracy Institute's annual report for 2025 called it the worst year for democracy, globally, since 1978.

https://www.v-dem.net/documents/75/V-Dem_Institute_Democracy_Report_2026_lowres.pdf

They esp. highlight the US's drop in 2025 (special section starting on p33:

• Under Trump's presidency, the level of democracy in the USA has fallen back to the same level as in 1965.
• Yet the situation is fundamentally different than during the Civil Rights era. In 2025, the derailment of democracy is marked by executive overreach undermining the rule of law, along with farreaching suppression and intimidation of media and dissenting voices.
• The speed with which American democracy is currently dismantled is unprecedented in modern history.
• Legislative Constraints – the worst affected aspect of democracy – is losing one-third of its value in 2025 and reaching its lowest point in over 100 years.
• Civil Rights and Equality before the Law are also rapidly declining, falling to late 1960s levels.
• Freedom of Expression is now at its lowest level since the end of WWII.
• Electoral components of democracy remain stable.
• Election-specific indicators are re-assessed only in electoral years, and the 2025 scores are based on the quality of the 2024 elections.

Select sections:

Typically, processes of autocratization during the "third wave" are incremental and often inconspicuous, spanning years or even decades In terms of the speed of autocratization, Trump 2.0 outpaces not only Trump 1.0 but also the most prominent autocrats of the last 25 years. Figure 23 provides evidence by comparing the USA's speed of decline on the LDI to the early stages of autocratization under five prominent autocratizers of the last 25 years. The dramatic decline under Donald Trump took Hungary's Viktor Orbán over four years, Serbia's Aleksandar Vučić eight years, and both India's Narendra Modi and Türkiye's Rečep Tayyip Erdoğan about a decade.

The 2025 level of the LDI is not collapsing further primarily due to the electoral components. Election-specific indicators are evaluated only in election years, meaning that the 2025 scores for the quality of elections are based on the characteristics of the 2024 elections, which were free and fair. As election-specific indicators figure quite heavily in the EDI (which is part of the LDI), there is a limit to how much the USA can drop on the LDI in 2025. This also makes the 2026 midterms decisive (see discussion below).

"Dismantling Checks and Balances – Concentrating Power":

Trump's second term can be summarized as a rapid and aggressive concentration of powers in the presidency.

Checks and balances limiting the powers of the executive are at the core of both republican thinking and liberal democracy. To prevent tyranny, other branches must have co-equal powers to check an executive seeking dominance. Unsurprisingly, checks and balances are among the first targets during autocratization. Checks and balances are largely captured by the LDI components Legislative and Judicial Constraints. By the end of 2025, both show  marked declines, with the Legislative Constraints experiencing the steepest drop from 0.86 to 0.61 – a loss of one-third of its 2024 value (Figure 24, left panel). This is by far the largest single-year drop in the US history, and 2025 is the lowest level in over 100 years. Decline on the Judicial Constraints is smaller – from 0.90 to 0.84 – but it is also the lowest level since 1900.

Under "Undoing Civil Rights and Equality before the Law":

Targeting civil rights of specific groups helps autocratizers consolidate their loyal power base, weaponize social issues, justify repressive measures as necessary for national security, and manipulate the electoral playing field in their favor The LDI component for Civil Rights and Equality before the Law dropped from 0.94 in 2023 to 0.82 in 2025, becoming the third most severely affected (Figure 24, left panel). This brings the 2025 level back to the late 1960s, almost identical to the overall Liberal Democracy Index

"Seeking to Silence Media, Dissenting Voices, and Academia"

Freedom of Expression is falling to its lowest level since the end of WWII. The decline is driven by a range of documented attacks – from censorship and financial coercion, to legal intimidation and suppression.
Freedom of expression is at the core of democracy and therefore is the most common target among autocratizing leaders over the past 25 years (see Figure 17, Section 3). Figure 24 (right panel) shows that the LDI component for Freedom of Expression65 plunges from 0.94 in 2023 to 0.73 in 2025 and reaching its lowest point since the end of WWII.

"Associations Free – But not from Acts of Suppression"

There are no official restrictions on political parties or civil society organizations (CSOs), but the government is pursuing an offensive against organizations that oppose its agenda.

Freedom of association ensures that political parties can form, operate, and participate in elections, and that CSOs can form, operate, and seek funding freely. The overall Freedom of Association index registers a small change in 2025, falling from 0.94 in 2024 to 0.91 in 2025 (Figure 24, right panel). The decline is driven by a worsening of the indicator measuring repression of civil society (Figure 25).

Change of indicators 2025 vs 2023:





"Elections Remain Largely Unaffected – For Now"

Electoral aspects of democracy in the USA do not change in 2025 as they are re-assessed only in election years, but there are signs of threats to the integrity of the 2026 midterm elections.

The electoral component of the LDI includes suffrage, elected officials, and clean (free, fair and uncompromised) elections. Suffrage and Elected Officials Index have been unchanged over 50 years. The
Clean Elections Index is nearly entirely composed of election-specific indicators that are evaluated only in election years, so they did not change since the 2024 elections (see Figure 24, right panel). Hence, the USA remains stable on quality of elections by the end of 2025, which prevents the LDI from falling further. However, given the worsening quality of elections under Trump 1.0 (see Figure 22), electoral aspects of democracy deserve a closer assessment.

"What Would It Take for a U-Turn?"

What would it take to stop autocratization in the USA, and turn it around? Roughly 70% of all "third wave" episodes of autocratization have been reversed, making U-turns.108 Elections were often pivotal windows of opportunity, and the first electoral cycle was often decisive.

Research shows that there is no unique recipe for making a U-turn but a combination of three key factors seem to be important: (i) strong institutional safeguards acting as the "brakes" of autocratization: electoral integrity, judiciary constraints, and legislative constrains; (ii) robust societal action serving as the "engine" of democratic revival: unified opposition, robust and active civil society, independent media, and sustained non-violent mass pro-democracy protests; and (iii) acting early since most U-turns happen around the end of the first electoral cycle

In the USA, the judicial system – and in the end, the Supreme Court – is likely to be vital in stopping Trump's administration autocratic advances. And federal structures – state governments and state judiciaries – can function as checks on the federal government, particularly on the administration of federal elections.

[The Brain]

It's frightening that we have to go back to the Carter administration to find such disregard for democracy.