What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[HVC]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DMh2lr9sFs_

[crazy canuck]

An article describing the book bans occurring in the US, including books the CIA smuggled into the Eastern Bloc like Animal Farm and 1984.

Gifted link

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/opinion/1984-cia-book-ban.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Zk8.OhD-.mvxsQhHvMq1S&smid=url-share

[Zanza]

EU accepted a similar deal as Japan with 15% import tax in the United States.

For cars, that creates a bit paradox situation: if you import the steel, aluminium and copper to assemble a car in the US, you pay 50% import tax. Components from China also have a 30% import tax, those from EU and Japan have 15% (so not differentiating).

I guess it increases competitiveness if you source all your materials and components locally. But then those materials and components will likely be more expensive than those sourced globally due to comparative advantage elsewhere.

A fully assembled car can be imported at a flat 15%. I am not aware of a local content criterion here.

I guess it really depends on the particular cars value chain whether the high taxes for imported or higher costs for locally sourced components and materials are offset by the lower import taxes for EU and Japanese cars.

Only one thing is certain: it damages profitability of selling cars and will lead to rising consumer prices for cars in the US. I doubt that it will create an industrial renaissance.

Edit: Apparently, EU lowers it's import tariff for US vehicles to 0%. Main beneficiaries of that will likely be BMW and Mercedes as they import from their US plants. Also Stellantis. GM barely sells cars here, Ford and Tesla have local plants. 

[Zanza]

Also defence purchases of hundreds of billions, energy purchases of 750 billion and investments of 600 billion were part of the deal. Apparently that's just roughly what the EU buys and invests in the US anyway...

[Sheilbh]

On prices in the US - I think that's a maybe.

Bit on the FT recently on how the "world is chickening out" noting that so far the impact of the tariffs has been lower than expected and the take from them higher. There are some signs that companies are either taking a hit (almost the opposite of the covid era sellers' inflation) or allocating the cost elsewhere in their global operations.

[Zanza]

It's not obvious to me that giving in is the right policy for Europe. It might be, but I wonder if escalation wouldn't have been more effective with a bully like Trump.

[celedhring]

Yeah, I fully expect him to pull off a Darth Vader in Bespin move in a few months.

[Zoupa]

(NewsNation) — One Tennessee school district will no longer accept doctors' notes to excuse an absence despite objections from parents.

Lawrence County School System officials said the school is instituting the policy to teach students work ethic and reliability, saying that students will be expected to go to work sick or injured as adults.

   

[DGuller]

(NewsNation) — One Tennessee school district will no longer accept doctors' notes to excuse an absence despite objections from parents.

Lawrence County School System officials said the school is instituting the policy to teach students work ethic and reliability, saying that students will be expected to go to work sick or injured as adults.

   

What's so odd about the bolded part?  Many employers will indeed expect you to go to work sick or injured.

[Zoupa]

[HVC]

You can't pull yourself up by your bootstraps if you're concerned about trivialities like your health. MeRiCa!

[Josquius]

(NewsNation) — One Tennessee school district will no longer accept doctors' notes to excuse an absence despite objections from parents.

Lawrence County School System officials said the school is instituting the policy to teach students work ethic and reliability, saying that students will be expected to go to work sick or injured as adults.

   

What's so odd about the bolded part?  Many employers will indeed expect you to go to work sick or injured.

How quick covid is forgotten.

[The Brain]

Seems unreasonable that, in America, a $1,200 doctor's note shouldn't carry some weight.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Also defence purchases of hundreds of billions, energy purchases of 750 billion and investments of 600 billion were part of the deal. Apparently that's just roughly what the EU buys and invests in the US anyway...

It isn't, actually. It stipulates at least on energy buying $250bn/yr over the next 3 years. This actually represents more than the total value of all U.S. energy exports, annually. The U.S. exports around $101bn worth of crude oil, $54bn of LNG, and $10bn of metallurgical coal. The EU could become the sole customer for all 3 of those and would still not hit the $250bn/yr targets.

EU's total energy imports annually are $236bn in crude oil, $51bn of LNG and $6.5bn of metallurgical coal. While that is enough, if the EU shifted all its purchasing to US source, to use up the deal terms, the issue of course would be it is extremely unlikely the EU could shift such a vast amount of energy purchases from a global market to the U.S. as a single source. And, as noted above, if they did so--the U.S. doesn't produce enough exports to supply this. Now, the U.S. could theoretically supply all the LNG and metallurgical coal--but the problem with that is U.S. companies just sell on the open market, many of them already have contracts to sell these goods to destinations in Asia etc, they aren't going to just make themselves single source suppliers for EU purchasers, and the U.S. doesn't operate a command economy in which it can require that, either.

[celedhring]

I'm not aware of any mechanism that the EU possesses to actually enforce these "promises", particularly in those outrageous amounts. This deal just looks like "we'll take 15% and walk away".

Again, my personal theory is that Trump sees tariffs as a revenue-raising mechanism and a PR exercise for himself. He's certainly not going to drive an industrial renaissance with embargo-like tariffs for most industrial metals.