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What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

Started by FunkMonk, November 08, 2016, 11:02:57 PM

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Razgovory

Quote from: derspiess on June 12, 2018, 07:39:59 AM
Quote from: Jacob on June 11, 2018, 05:17:15 PM
Quote from: derspiess on June 11, 2018, 10:21:55 AM
American populism doesn't tend to sustain itself for very long.  It'll burn out sooner than most of you think.

I hope you're right.

What sort of scenario are you thinking we'll see when the populism burns out?

Populist voters become disheartened and effectively dissolve as a voting bloc.  A vacuum in the GOP until it regroups and finds a new identity.  Dems controlling White House & Congress for 8 years before pendulum swings back and favors another new GOP movement.


Well, at least one big populist movement ended when one of the leaders raped and murdered a woman.  Another one created a party that exists today.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

The Minsky Moment

Today I learned Bob Gibson was only 6'1"
But I bet he looked at least 6'4" on the mound, 6'6" if he was throwing inside.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Barrister

Pete Navarro, he of the "special place in hell" comments, has apologized for using "language that was inappropriate".
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Razgovory

Quote from: DGuller on June 12, 2018, 07:38:57 AM

I think it's a mistake to look for every single characteristic of the original fascist states, before you conclude that yes, there are worrying similarities.  Russia has been a fascist state for quite some time, and there is nothing but deep disdain for the State outside of Putin.  Every fascist state adapts to some local specifics, even the original German and Italian ones, and some of the traits we judge as "fascist" may simply have been idiosyncratic to Germany or Italy.


Okay, fair enough, but how do we distinguish a Fascist from a run-of-the-mill Banana Republic?  How is Mussolini different than Somoza?
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Oexmelin

Quote from: Valmy on June 12, 2018, 11:33:43 AM
I think the basic idea is useful but, like most historical theories, falls apart when you try to apply it to actual historical events.

How useful is it, then? It neither explains, nor predicts anything. Are there things that are not subjected to the pendulum? When is that pendulum about "freedom" going to swing back to "slavery"? Or does it only work on small-scale events? When can we expect the next genocide?

It seems much more harmful than useful, for being basically a fatalistic, disempowering outlook, or fostering a false sense of confidence - no need to do anything, just wait for the pendulum to swing back - presumably to a safe space. There's no pendulum. People have coped in the past with terrible regimes, and horrible things for centuries, without any mystic pendulum to bring them back.
Que le grand cric me croque !

Jacob

Quote from: Razgovory on June 12, 2018, 11:54:42 AMOkay, fair enough, but how do we distinguish a Fascist from a run-of-the-mill Banana Republic?  How is Mussolini different than Somoza?

Good question.

If we do a rigorous analysis, we may find that a number of banana republics do or did in fact exhibit strong Fascist characteristics.

Without getting too deep into the analysis, I'd say the key difference is that the ruling clique of a banana republic depends on the support of outside commercial interests to maintain power. Basically, in a fascist state the leader uses the trappings, methods, and ideology of fascism to take and wield power. In a banana republic, the ruling clique may exhibit a complete suite of fascist trappings, methods, and ideology - or they may have been democratically elected - but if United Fruit decides the ruling clique is insufficiently cooperative, then the ruling clique gets pushed out of power whether they're Fascists, democrats, or something else.

So you can fascist and non-fascist banana republics.

Jacob

Quote from: derspiess on June 12, 2018, 07:39:59 AM
Quote from: Jacob on June 11, 2018, 05:17:15 PM
Quote from: derspiess on June 11, 2018, 10:21:55 AM
American populism doesn't tend to sustain itself for very long.  It'll burn out sooner than most of you think.

I hope you're right.

What sort of scenario are you thinking we'll see when the populism burns out?

Populist voters become disheartened and effectively dissolve as a voting bloc.  A vacuum in the GOP until it regroups and finds a new identity.  Dems controlling White House & Congress for 8 years before pendulum swings back and favors another new GOP movement.

And you figure that will happen in the next two to six years? Then 8 years of Democratic dominance, followed by Republicans again... do you expect the next GOP period of control to be populist as well, or something else?

derspiess

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 12, 2018, 11:39:44 AM
Today I learned Bob Gibson was only 6'1"
But I bet he looked at least 6'4" on the mound, 6'6" if he was throwing inside.

I was at a dinner where George Foster told a fun story about his first time facing Gibson.  Willie Mays advised him not to take too much time getting set in the box or he'd get plunked.  He ignored the advice and got plunked before he even had a chance to look towards the mound.  He never repeated that mistake.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

crazy canuck

Quote from: Oexmelin on June 12, 2018, 12:11:10 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 12, 2018, 11:33:43 AM
I think the basic idea is useful but, like most historical theories, falls apart when you try to apply it to actual historical events.

How useful is it, then? It neither explains, nor predicts anything. Are there things that are not subjected to the pendulum? When is that pendulum about "freedom" going to swing back to "slavery"? Or does it only work on small-scale events? When can we expect the next genocide?

It seems much more harmful than useful, for being basically a fatalistic, disempowering outlook, or fostering a false sense of confidence - no need to do anything, just wait for the pendulum to swing back - presumably to a safe space. There's no pendulum. People have coped in the past with terrible regimes, and horrible things for centuries, without any mystic pendulum to bring them back.

I think people mistake the pendulum theory with the barnacles of governing that accumulate over multiple years of governing - the point being that over time every government is going to make poor judgments and the voters, in time, will punish them for those missteps.

But I do not think either the pendulum theory or the barnacles of government provides a good explanation for the rise of right wing populists.  This is a wholesale rejection of liberal democratic principles, policies and institutions.   I also think it is alarming that some view this as being the usual ebb and flow of politics.

derspiess

Quote from: crazy canuck on June 12, 2018, 12:34:04 PM
But I do not think either the pendulum theory or the barnacles of government provides a good explanation for the rise of right wing populists. 

Just for the record, I wasn't doing that.  Populism seems to bubble up on the left, center, and right at irregular times. 
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Sophie Scholl

Quote from: Razgovory on June 12, 2018, 11:54:42 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 12, 2018, 07:38:57 AM

I think it's a mistake to look for every single characteristic of the original fascist states, before you conclude that yes, there are worrying similarities.  Russia has been a fascist state for quite some time, and there is nothing but deep disdain for the State outside of Putin.  Every fascist state adapts to some local specifics, even the original German and Italian ones, and some of the traits we judge as "fascist" may simply have been idiosyncratic to Germany or Italy.


Okay, fair enough, but how do we distinguish a Fascist from a run-of-the-mill Banana Republic?  How is Mussolini different than Somoza?

This is Umberto Eco's answer: http://www.buildinghumanrights.us/task/multimedia/dox/umberto-eco-on-fascism/
"Everything that brought you here -- all the things that made you a prisoner of past sins -- they are gone. Forever and for good. So let the past go... and live."

"Somebody, after all, had to make a start. What we wrote and said is also believed by many others. They just don't dare express themselves as we did."

Oexmelin

Marco Rubio, on Twitter:

One more thing about KJU. While I know @potus is trying to butter him up to get a good deal, #KJU is NOT a talented guy. He inherited the family business from his dad & grandfather. He is a total weirdo who would not be elected assistant dog catcher in any democracy.
Que le grand cric me croque !

Sophie Scholl

Quote from: derspiess on June 12, 2018, 12:33:37 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 12, 2018, 11:39:44 AM
Today I learned Bob Gibson was only 6'1"
But I bet he looked at least 6'4" on the mound, 6'6" if he was throwing inside.

I was at a dinner where George Foster told a fun story about his first time facing Gibson.  Willie Mays advised him not to take too much time getting set in the box or he'd get plunked.  He ignored the advice and got plunked before he even had a chance to look towards the mound.  He never repeated that mistake.
:lol:  That's great.
"Everything that brought you here -- all the things that made you a prisoner of past sins -- they are gone. Forever and for good. So let the past go... and live."

"Somebody, after all, had to make a start. What we wrote and said is also believed by many others. They just don't dare express themselves as we did."

crazy canuck

Quote from: derspiess on June 12, 2018, 12:55:29 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on June 12, 2018, 12:34:04 PM
But I do not think either the pendulum theory or the barnacles of government provides a good explanation for the rise of right wing populists. 

Just for the record, I wasn't doing that.  Populism seems to bubble up on the left, center, and right at irregular times.

I don't see anything irregular about this.  It is a political movement that is not unique to Trump and which observers have been concerned about pre Trump.  It is a world wide phenomenon that is very troubling and shows no particular sign of lessening even if Trump himself goes down in flames.

Valmy

Quote from: Oexmelin on June 12, 2018, 12:11:10 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 12, 2018, 11:33:43 AM
I think the basic idea is useful but, like most historical theories, falls apart when you try to apply it to actual historical events.

How useful is it, then? It neither explains, nor predicts anything. Are there things that are not subjected to the pendulum? When is that pendulum about "freedom" going to swing back to "slavery"? Or does it only work on small-scale events? When can we expect the next genocide?

It seems much more harmful than useful, for being basically a fatalistic, disempowering outlook, or fostering a false sense of confidence - no need to do anything, just wait for the pendulum to swing back - presumably to a safe space. There's no pendulum. People have coped in the past with terrible regimes, and horrible things for centuries, without any mystic pendulum to bring them back.

No there is no literal or mystical pendulum. It is just an observation of political patterns not a magic trick. I think there is a pattern to react the other way after awhile to whatever has been in power or popularity for awhile, since its problems will be very observable. But, of course, in real life it always works 60% of the time or whatever.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."