What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Razgovory]

American populism doesn't tend to sustain itself for very long.  It'll burn out sooner than most of you think.

I hope you're right.

What sort of scenario are you thinking we'll see when the populism burns out?

Populist voters become disheartened and effectively dissolve as a voting bloc.  A vacuum in the GOP until it regroups and finds a new identity.  Dems controlling White House & Congress for 8 years before pendulum swings back and favors another new GOP movement.

Well, at least one big populist movement ended when one of the leaders raped and murdered a woman.  Another one created a party that exists today.

[The Minsky Moment]

Today I learned Bob Gibson was only 6'1"
But I bet he looked at least 6'4" on the mound, 6'6" if he was throwing inside.

[Barrister]

Pete Navarro, he of the "special place in hell" comments, has apologized for using "language that was inappropriate".

[Razgovory]

I think it's a mistake to look for every single characteristic of the original fascist states, before you conclude that yes, there are worrying similarities.  Russia has been a fascist state for quite some time, and there is nothing but deep disdain for the State outside of Putin.  Every fascist state adapts to some local specifics, even the original German and Italian ones, and some of the traits we judge as "fascist" may simply have been idiosyncratic to Germany or Italy.

Okay, fair enough, but how do we distinguish a Fascist from a run-of-the-mill Banana Republic?  How is Mussolini different than Somoza?

[Oexmelin]

I think the basic idea is useful but, like most historical theories, falls apart when you try to apply it to actual historical events.

How useful is it, then? It neither explains, nor predicts anything. Are there things that are not subjected to the pendulum? When is that pendulum about "freedom" going to swing back to "slavery"? Or does it only work on small-scale events? When can we expect the next genocide?

It seems much more harmful than useful, for being basically a fatalistic, disempowering outlook, or fostering a false sense of confidence - no need to do anything, just wait for the pendulum to swing back - presumably to a safe space. There's no pendulum. People have coped in the past with terrible regimes, and horrible things for centuries, without any mystic pendulum to bring them back.

[Jacob]

Okay, fair enough, but how do we distinguish a Fascist from a run-of-the-mill Banana Republic?  How is Mussolini different than Somoza?

Good question.

If we do a rigorous analysis, we may find that a number of banana republics do or did in fact exhibit strong Fascist characteristics.

Without getting too deep into the analysis, I'd say the key difference is that the ruling clique of a banana republic depends on the support of outside commercial interests to maintain power. Basically, in a fascist state the leader uses the trappings, methods, and ideology of fascism to take and wield power. In a banana republic, the ruling clique may exhibit a complete suite of fascist trappings, methods, and ideology - or they may have been democratically elected - but if United Fruit decides the ruling clique is insufficiently cooperative, then the ruling clique gets pushed out of power whether they're Fascists, democrats, or something else.

So you can fascist and non-fascist banana republics.

[Jacob]

American populism doesn't tend to sustain itself for very long.  It'll burn out sooner than most of you think.

I hope you're right.

What sort of scenario are you thinking we'll see when the populism burns out?

Populist voters become disheartened and effectively dissolve as a voting bloc.  A vacuum in the GOP until it regroups and finds a new identity.  Dems controlling White House & Congress for 8 years before pendulum swings back and favors another new GOP movement.

And you figure that will happen in the next two to six years? Then 8 years of Democratic dominance, followed by Republicans again... do you expect the next GOP period of control to be populist as well, or something else?

[derspiess]

Today I learned Bob Gibson was only 6'1"
But I bet he looked at least 6'4" on the mound, 6'6" if he was throwing inside.

I was at a dinner where George Foster told a fun story about his first time facing Gibson.  Willie Mays advised him not to take too much time getting set in the box or he'd get plunked.  He ignored the advice and got plunked before he even had a chance to look towards the mound.  He never repeated that mistake.

[crazy canuck]

I think the basic idea is useful but, like most historical theories, falls apart when you try to apply it to actual historical events.

How useful is it, then? It neither explains, nor predicts anything. Are there things that are not subjected to the pendulum? When is that pendulum about "freedom" going to swing back to "slavery"? Or does it only work on small-scale events? When can we expect the next genocide?

It seems much more harmful than useful, for being basically a fatalistic, disempowering outlook, or fostering a false sense of confidence - no need to do anything, just wait for the pendulum to swing back - presumably to a safe space. There's no pendulum. People have coped in the past with terrible regimes, and horrible things for centuries, without any mystic pendulum to bring them back.

I think people mistake the pendulum theory with the barnacles of governing that accumulate over multiple years of governing - the point being that over time every government is going to make poor judgments and the voters, in time, will punish them for those missteps.

But I do not think either the pendulum theory or the barnacles of government provides a good explanation for the rise of right wing populists.  This is a wholesale rejection of liberal democratic principles, policies and institutions.   I also think it is alarming that some view this as being the usual ebb and flow of politics.

[derspiess]

But I do not think either the pendulum theory or the barnacles of government provides a good explanation for the rise of right wing populists. 

Just for the record, I wasn't doing that.  Populism seems to bubble up on the left, center, and right at irregular times. 

[Sophie Scholl]

I think it's a mistake to look for every single characteristic of the original fascist states, before you conclude that yes, there are worrying similarities.  Russia has been a fascist state for quite some time, and there is nothing but deep disdain for the State outside of Putin.  Every fascist state adapts to some local specifics, even the original German and Italian ones, and some of the traits we judge as "fascist" may simply have been idiosyncratic to Germany or Italy.

Okay, fair enough, but how do we distinguish a Fascist from a run-of-the-mill Banana Republic?  How is Mussolini different than Somoza?

This is Umberto Eco's answer: http://www.buildinghumanrights.us/task/multimedia/dox/umberto-eco-on-fascism/

[Oexmelin]

Marco Rubio, on Twitter:

One more thing about KJU. While I know @potus is trying to butter him up to get a good deal, #KJU is NOT a talented guy. He inherited the family business from his dad & grandfather. He is a total weirdo who would not be elected assistant dog catcher in any democracy.

[Sophie Scholl]

Today I learned Bob Gibson was only 6'1"
But I bet he looked at least 6'4" on the mound, 6'6" if he was throwing inside.

I was at a dinner where George Foster told a fun story about his first time facing Gibson.  Willie Mays advised him not to take too much time getting set in the box or he'd get plunked.  He ignored the advice and got plunked before he even had a chance to look towards the mound.  He never repeated that mistake.

  That's great.

[crazy canuck]

But I do not think either the pendulum theory or the barnacles of government provides a good explanation for the rise of right wing populists. 

Just for the record, I wasn't doing that.  Populism seems to bubble up on the left, center, and right at irregular times.

I don't see anything irregular about this.  It is a political movement that is not unique to Trump and which observers have been concerned about pre Trump.  It is a world wide phenomenon that is very troubling and shows no particular sign of lessening even if Trump himself goes down in flames.

[Valmy]

I think the basic idea is useful but, like most historical theories, falls apart when you try to apply it to actual historical events.

How useful is it, then? It neither explains, nor predicts anything. Are there things that are not subjected to the pendulum? When is that pendulum about "freedom" going to swing back to "slavery"? Or does it only work on small-scale events? When can we expect the next genocide?

It seems much more harmful than useful, for being basically a fatalistic, disempowering outlook, or fostering a false sense of confidence - no need to do anything, just wait for the pendulum to swing back - presumably to a safe space. There's no pendulum. People have coped in the past with terrible regimes, and horrible things for centuries, without any mystic pendulum to bring them back.

No there is no literal or mystical pendulum. It is just an observation of political patterns not a magic trick. I think there is a pattern to react the other way after awhile to whatever has been in power or popularity for awhile, since its problems will be very observable. But, of course, in real life it always works 60% of the time or whatever.