What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Admiral Yi]

Even when Trump is gone the US will be weakened on the world stage. How do you make long term plans with a partner that can elect a Trump? How long until the next Trump is elected? The retard stain won't come out.

Agreed.

[Jacob]

You do it because you have no choice.

Of course. Until, of course, there is a choice. And in smaller more discretionary decisions where there are a range of choices that eventually accumulate significant consequences in the long term.

[garbon]

You do it because you have no choice.

Of course. Until, of course, there is a choice. And in smaller more discretionary decisions where there are a range of choices that eventually accumulate significant consequences in the long term.

Which is hopefully something doesn't happen as that likely leads to a situation where militarily powerful nations in the world start carving it up. Decentralized Europe doesn't stand a hope.

[The Minsky Moment]

There's always a choice.  Not necessarily a good one, but a choice nonetheless.

[Oexmelin]

And not every partnership is NATO.

[garbon]

And not every partnership is NATO.

My point was that if the US goes down a more aggrieved route feeling shafted by its partners, one could imagine a distant world where military powers move once again to take what they feel is theirs.  I guess it is possible that Europe could coalesce in such a distant scenario but it does indeed seem a bit further back than say the US and China.

[Jacob]

Which is hopefully something doesn't happen as that likely leads to a situation where militarily powerful nations in the world start carving it up. Decentralized Europe doesn't stand a hope.

Yeah, while there were issues with the Pax Americana based on the post-WWII consensus and a commitment to Western democratic ideals as defined and promoted by the US, all told I was pretty comfortable with it.

The US led the free world based on compelling ideals, mutual benefit, and their position of strength.

With Trump, the compelling ideals part has taken a real beating and will be a challenge to rehabilitate and the idea of mutual benefit has also been significantly downgraded (though of course in substance there are still plenty of areas where it still applies). The position of strength is still there of course, but without the other two components it's less compelling IMO.

As for Europe being carved up... I think Russia's re-expanding their sphere of influence in Easter Europe. I think core EU military strength is pretty decent, even without the UK, so I don't think West European countries are in danger of being "carved up" by stronger countries unless there's some other political shenanigans involved.

[Jacob]

My point was that if the US goes down a more aggrieved route feeling shafted by its partners, one could imagine a distant world where military powers move once again to take what they feel is theirs.  I guess it is possible that Europe could coalesce in such a distant scenario but it does indeed seem a bit further back than say the US and China.

I think Europe "coalescing" is orders of magnitude more likely than China engaging in military adventures on that continent. I'd be more worried about Russia, personally.

As for the US deciding to "take what they feel is theirs"... what sort of scenario are you envisioning? That the US manufactures some sort of reason to invade France or Norway like it was Iraq?

[Oexmelin]

The resurgence of naked might as the operative term of international relations is a very real and frightening possibility. But my point was simply that "having no choice" is rarely couched in the most extreme option possible. NATO may survive, because "there is no choice", but it will be eroded by the breakdown of much smaller instances of partnership and collaboration.

[Sophie Scholl]

Which is hopefully something doesn't happen as that likely leads to a situation where militarily powerful nations in the world start carving it up. Decentralized Europe doesn't stand a hope.

Yeah, while there were issues with the Pax Americana based on the post-WWII consensus and a commitment to Western democratic ideals as defined and promoted by the US, all told I was pretty comfortable with it.

The US led the free world based on compelling ideals, mutual benefit, and their position of strength.

If you lived in Central America, South America, Africa, or Asia, you might have a very different opinion of the merits of the Pax Americana and American "commitment" to Western Democratic ideals.  I'm curious to see how China continues to expand their influence and global clout.  Will it be more focused on economic, expansionist, diplomatic, or regime change meddling style efforts.

[Berkut]

Which is hopefully something doesn't happen as that likely leads to a situation where militarily powerful nations in the world start carving it up. Decentralized Europe doesn't stand a hope.

Yeah, while there were issues with the Pax Americana based on the post-WWII consensus and a commitment to Western democratic ideals as defined and promoted by the US, all told I was pretty comfortable with it.

The US led the free world based on compelling ideals, mutual benefit, and their position of strength.

If you lived in Central America, South America, Africa, or Asia, you might have a very different opinion of the merits of the Pax Americana and American "commitment" to Western Democratic ideals. 

Indeed. What a nightmare American peace has been for those areas of the world mentioned. If only they had been able to enjoy the peace, prosperity, and justice that was denied them by American interference.

[Jacob]

If you lived in Central America, South America, Africa, or Asia, you might have a very different opinion of the merits of the Pax Americana and American "commitment" to Western Democratic ideals.  I'm curious to see how China continues to expand their influence and global clout.  Will it be more focused on economic, expansionist, diplomatic, or regime change meddling style efforts.

Yup, I was purely speaking for myself - from a West European and Canadian perspective, the Pax Americana has been pretty good, warts and all.

I'm very willing to concede that there are places where the Pax Americana has been a much wartier experience as it were, than it has been sitting in Copenhagen or Vancouver.

[Valmy]

If you lived in Central America, South America, Africa, or Asia, you might have a very different opinion of the merits of the Pax Americana and American "commitment" to Western Democratic ideals.

Really? Because most countries in those regions had pretty much come around. Voluntarily even.

[Valmy]

Yup, I was purely speaking for myself - from a West European and Canadian perspective, the Pax Americana has been pretty good, warts and all.

I'm very willing to concede that there are places where the Pax Americana has been a much wartier experience as it were, than it has been sitting in Copenhagen or Vancouver.

We have done horrible things but it is not like we run a totalitarian empire. Most of the countries in those regions have similarly benefited.

[garbon]

Arpaio announced he is running for Flake's senate seat. I know Arizonans that you are mostly a lost people but do the right thing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/us/joe-arpaio-senate-arizona.html

"Being a U.S. senator is a little different than being the sheriff, because you can do a lot of things in the U.S. Senate, and I have many plans, believe me," Mr. Arpaio told The Washington Examiner in announcing his bid. "I have a lot to offer. I'm a big supporter of President Trump."