What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Tamas]

Latest US inflation number was -0.1% though.

[Josquius]

Latest US inflation number was -0.1% though.

As I say though lots of articles that people don't care about actual numbers. They see their bottle of coke has gone up 50% and they blame Biden.
Stuff like this-
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx002795738o

Purely from the outside looking in but I do fear we could see a repeat of the same kind of vibes over facts lashing out that gave us Trump I and brekshit.

[Solmyr]

So it really is Vance.

That's just such a fascinating pick.

So yes, he has a remarkable biography.  Growing up poor, joined the Marines, Yale law school, wrote a best-selling memoir turned into a (hit?) movie, elected to the senate.  I mean there was a time I really respected JD Vance.

Trump commented in the past that Pence looked like he was from "central casting" and I'm not sure that quite applies to Vance, but that's Trump's issue, not mine.

But on the other hand... Vance was a really, really vocal critic of Trump in 2016.  Like very publicly.  He's obviously turned 180 degrees since then, but those sound clips exist.

Interesting to see how it pans out.

Almost every Republican who was a vocal critic of Trump in 2016 is now sucking his dick, so it's not a problem.

[Solmyr]

Finally - I think you also think that withdrawing from NATO would be a really bad thing.

The funny thing with the Russians hoping for a compliant Trump who'll just pull away from NATO/Ukraine, given his capricious nature is the following very likely (IMO) scenario:

Trump offers Putin a deal on Ukraine, the best deal, just amazing. Putin will dismiss it haughtily and mistake it for subservience like Russians are prone to do with every gesture that is not a hard kick to the face.

And then drone swarms in the 10,000s and hundreds of F-16's and Abrams tanks in the Zaporozhye plains summer 2026. 

As to Trump and Europe, eh, Charlie will invite him over to Buckie for a banquet and a diet coke. Throw in an honour guard and bands as well. It worked very well last time. The White House staff will make sure he's distracted with plenty of things to do and any intemperate social media messages or phone calls will get sandbagged and garbled as last time.

He just wants another ride on the roller coaster.

Trump's deal for Putin will be "take all of it", which Putin will accept.

[Sheilbh]

Latest US inflation number was -0.1% though.

Sure - but real wages fell in basically 2021 and 2022 and most of 2023. I think there's still a fair bit to go to catch up.

I think Biden's done well on the economy as a President. It's unfair to assign blames but all incumbents are really hit by cost of living and inflation in recent years. It's not fair, but if you are in power people hold you responsible.

The lived experience of most people over Biden's term is of falling purchasing power, life getting more expensive and people feeling poorer. I think of all people Biden is actually a politician who will get that be able to talk about it - if nothing else I think he understands the need for empathy. That is necessary, because a lot of the liberal commentators seem to be more in the "if we just show one more chart" school of persuasion.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think VPs rarely matter, but Vance was a complete dud of an electoral pick. He is just a copy of Trump's base, does nothing to broaden appeal.

Tim Scott or Nikki Haley were easy lay up wins, Tim Scott I genuinely think would have given Trump a +2 durable polling boost. Haley I get they probably hate each other too much, but there's a few other non-Kristi Noem female prospects who also could have helped him out.

J.D. Vance doesn't broaden the appeal at all beyond the base of voters who were already Trump loyalists.

Vance also isn't clearly that strong on the "Trump loyalist" front, he was a vitriolic Trump critic before he flopped to supporting him. Which is often a sin that Trump may forgive if you bend the knee, but rarely forgets.

[Valmy]

He called Trump America's Hitler. 

That has to be a first that somebody has picked a VP that called them Hitler.

[Valmy]

The lived experience of most people over Biden's term is of falling purchasing power, life getting more expensive and people feeling poorer. I think of all people Biden is actually a politician who will get that be able to talk about it - if nothing else I think he understands the need for empathy. That is necessary, because a lot of the liberal commentators seem to be more in the "if we just show one more chart" school of persuasion.

It is 2016 all over again.

"The economy has recovered but mostly only for the rich and the common people are struggling!"

"Yes...but this chart shows that in fact the economy has never been stronger!"

And the second Trump got in office he was able to convince people that the charts were right and everything was great despite nothing changing. If he gets elected I suspect we will have a repeat.

[Norgy]

I read his book. And actually had some sympathy for Vance. And who hasn't called Trump Hitler, I mean, it's been almost a sign of respect.

I can walk, mein Führer!

[Sheilbh]

And the second Trump got in office he was able to convince people that the charts were right and everything was great despite nothing changing. If he gets elected I suspect we will have a repeat.

I don't think that's it. Perceptions of the US economy (like literally everything else) are polarised.

But my understanding was there was basically a recession in Obama's second term in those blue wall areas that Clinton lost - even if nationwide the economy was doing well. That recession had ended and the recovery was underway but for those voters there was a disconnect. In Trump's term that recovery continued.

I don't think it' s just Trump's magical persuasion skills or the devotion of his fans. Numbers about the economy or crime or whatever else matter for policy people and are important for that. But politically I think they only become relevant/salient when they are tied to people experience. So people around Biden pointing out how well the economy is doing well doesn't connect when most people have had about three years of falling real wages; by contrast because the recovery picked up steam (and was broader) under Trump I think people connected the economic stats with their experience.

[Valmy]

That wasn't exactly the narrative. The economic doom was nationwide and mostly focused on the destruction of rural and small town communities. This continued under Trump but people stopped talking about it.

[DGuller]

He called Trump America's Hitler. 

That has to be a first that somebody has picked a VP that called them Hitler.

Did he mean it as a criticism?

[The Minsky Moment]

He called Trump America's Hitler. 

That has to be a first that somebody has picked a VP that called them Hitler.

Hitler picked Hess as deputy even though Hess called him Hitler.
Although that did not end all that well.

But it gets to DG's point, it's only a negative if the person is insulted by the name.  Supposedly he did a lot of good things too.

[grumbler]

I don't think that's it. Perceptions of the US economy (like literally everything else) are polarised.

But my understanding was there was basically a recession in Obama's second term in those blue wall areas that Clinton lost - even if nationwide the economy was doing well. That recession had ended and the recovery was underway but for those voters there was a disconnect. In Trump's term that recovery continued.

I don't think it' s just Trump's magical persuasion skills or the devotion of his fans. Numbers about the economy or crime or whatever else matter for policy people and are important for that. But politically I think they only become relevant/salient when they are tied to people experience. So people around Biden pointing out how well the economy is doing well doesn't connect when most people have had about three years of falling real wages; by contrast because the recovery picked up steam (and was broader) under Trump I think people connected the economic stats with their experience.

As you say, feelings about the economy are polarized.  But the facts are not. People haven't seen "three years of falling real wages," they are just being told that they have seen them, and because they are looking at prices and not wages, they believe it.  Sure, the average real wage is down by 0.1% since Biden took office, but that was because many low-wage workers weren't working at all when he took office!  Real wages are up almost 2% in the last 12 months, as the employment shock and price shock of the Covid epidemic have waned.

The Trump years were mostly good for the economy, continuing the Obama presidency's policies, for the most part.  But Trump also saw the second-greatest job losses in modern American history.

[Sheilbh]

As you say, feelings about the economy are polarized.  But the facts are not. People haven't seen "three years of falling real wages," they are just being told that they have seen them, and because they are looking at prices and not wages, they believe it.  Sure, the average real wage is down by 0.1% since Biden took office, but that was because many low-wage workers weren't working at all when he took office!  Real wages are up almost 2% in the last 12 months, as the employment shock and price shock of the Covid epidemic have waned.

About three years of falling real wages - 2021, 2022 and most of 2023. Things have turned now.

Which is how it needs to be talked about by Biden and Democrats: tough times that they've supported and now the corner's turned. Not "this chart shows the economy is better than it's ever been!"

The Trump years were mostly good for the economy, continuing the Obama presidency's policies, for the most part.  But Trump also saw the second-greatest job losses in modern American history.

Yes. I think people (here too) are relatively sympathetic to leaders on the impact of the pandemic. I think they get that's a rare, act of God event - like a natural disaster and one that was accompanied by large swathes of the world economy shutting down. I think people can understand the context of 22.5 million jobs lost as covid hit (and half came back before the election).

I think they're a bit less forgiving of the recovery. Perhaps unfair - but I think it makes sense. I think this is true around the world. Incumbents are getting far less lee-way on the way out.

That wasn't exactly the narrative. The economic doom was nationwide and mostly focused on the destruction of rural and small town communities. This continued under Trump but people stopped talking about it.

I don't know about the narrative but I meant this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/upshot/mini-recession-2016-little-known-big-impact.html

I don't think narratives really matter and I think they get too much attention. I think in that key area of Obama-Trump states - they'd gone through a localised, sectoral recession.

I'd also add that the economic context of that time was also, I understand, important context for shaping Made in China 2025 which is a huge part of what's driven China's policy in recent years which is also really significant for where we are.