What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[grumbler]

https://nypost.com/2024/07/15/us-news/corey-comperatores-widow-reveals-his-final-words-before-he-was-killed-at-trump-rally/

So if you dig through this NYPost article...

Talks about the family of the fellow who was killed at the Trump assassination attempt.  I mean - he sounds like a very decent fellow.  I'm sorry for his family's loss.

Joe Biden called the family to express his sorrow.  The widow declined the call - saying her husband, a fervent Trump supporter, wouldn't have wanted her to.  To which - fair enough.

Widow does say she doesn't blame Biden in the least - that it was some 20 year old kid who killed her husband, not Joe Biden.

The kicker though:

She said the family has not heard from Trump — but is steadfast Biden isn't welcome.

And remember - this is the NY Post.

The guy doesn't sound so great when you realize that he's taught his wife that partisan spite should overrule even the slightest hint of courtesy to anyone outside the cult.  If this was a Democratic family refusing to accept a condolence call from a Republican president, the MAGAt knives would be out.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The POTUS cannot unilaterally withdraw from NATO.

Of course he can. It's been done many times before. For example, as part of the move to recognize the PRC, Carter unilaterally cancelled the US-Republic of China defense treaty.  He was sued by members of Congress disputing his authority and the Supreme Court ruled that the controversy was non-justiciable. As a result, the treaty became defunct.

Moreover, even if he didn't go so far as to abrogate the NATO treaty outright, he could render US adherence a dead letter by just refusing to cooperate anymore with any of the NATO structures, like France did under de Gaulle.

Trump has already made clear he isn't leaving NATO, and I simply disagree he could leave on his own.

[Legbiter]

Trump's (Project 2025) military posture is to basically withdraw from NATO except for the nuclear guarantee, so as to create such a strong defense of Taiwan that the PRC will abandon all hope of being able to invade.  I can't see the Trump Administration or Trump personally reversing course to suddenly support all those "lazy European countries that won't defend themselves."  Trump has said explicitly that he would welcome a Russian invasion of any NATO country that doesn't meet the agreed level of defense spending and that he would do nothing to stop it.

Bad things could happen. But if you don't vote Democrat in some fashion next time I'll have lost an enormous pillar of metaphysical certainty. Like if you said fuck Biden I'm just going to stay home, it would come close to shattering me. 

[grumbler]

Bad things could happen. But if you don't vote Democrat in some fashion next time I'll have lost an enormous pillar of metaphysical certainty. Like if you said fuck Biden I'm just going to stay home, it would come close to shattering me. 

The only way I'm not voting for Biden is if I am dead.  The prospect of a second Trump term terrifies me and the fact that it is even possible has left my faith in the American voter in tatters.

[jimmy olsen]

Heard on NPR that he was a registered Republican and had given $15 to a progressive organization in 2021.

Was a 69 year old guy with the same name

[Legbiter]

The only way I'm not voting for Biden is if I am dead.  The prospect of a second Trump term terrifies me and the fact that it is even possible has left my faith in the American voter in tatters.

Thanks. The stars remain in their orbits.

[Tonitrus]

Does anyone know if this firefighter dude was killed by an assassin bullet or Secret Service bullet?

The assassin was located nowhere near the viewing stand...the Secret Service snipers would not have been firing anywhere near that direction. (and there is no indication that any other members of the SS detail opened fire). 

[Barrister]

The POTUS cannot unilaterally withdraw from NATO.

Of course he can. It's been done many times before. For example, as part of the move to recognize the PRC, Carter unilaterally cancelled the US-Republic of China defense treaty.  He was sued by members of Congress disputing his authority and the Supreme Court ruled that the controversy was non-justiciable. As a result, the treaty became defunct.

Moreover, even if he didn't go so far as to abrogate the NATO treaty outright, he could render US adherence a dead letter by just refusing to cooperate anymore with any of the NATO structures, like France did under de Gaulle.

Trump has already made clear he isn't leaving NATO, and I simply disagree he could leave on his own.

You keep saying these things, but it would be appreciated if you could source them.

Not that you have to, of course.  You can make all the unsourced statements you like.  But I think I thoroughly disagree.

John Bolton, Trump's own former National Security Advisor, quoted Trump as saying "I don't give a shit about NATO".

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/23/bolton-book-trump-nato-ukraine-election/

Other former Trump advisors have said similar things.

So if all you've got is "POTUS cannot unilaterally withdraw from NATO" - I agree.  But I can't see how it makes any difference.  If Trump as Commander-in-Chief simply says he will not abide by Article V then NATO is dead, whether or not the US is still formally a member.

If you have some statement that makes it seem like Trump intends to actually abide by the USA's NATO commitment I would love to see it, because otherwise as a Canadian that is something that scares me shitless (to use Trumpian language).  Because look, as a right-wing Canadian I would love to rhetorically support the GOP candidate for US president.  Joe Biden is no friend of mine.

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump has already made clear he isn't leaving NATO

Clear as mud.

and I simply disagree he could leave on his own.

You are entitled to your opinion. But your disagreement won't stop it from happening. Nor is there any other mechanism to stop it. If Justice Rehnquist wouldn't stop Jimmy Carter, Roberts & Co. won't stop Donald Trump.

[Razgovory]

Finally - I think you also think that withdrawing from NATO would be a really bad thing.

The funny thing with the Russians hoping for a compliant Trump who'll just pull away from NATO/Ukraine, given his capricious nature is the following very likely (IMO) scenario:

Trump offers Putin a deal on Ukraine, the best deal, just amazing. Putin will dismiss it haughtily and mistake it for subservience like Russians are prone to do with every gesture that is not a hard kick to the face.

And then drone swarms in the 10,000s and hundreds of F-16's and Abrams tanks in the Zaporozhye plains summer 2026. 

As to Trump and Europe, eh, Charlie will invite him over to Buckie for a banquet and a diet coke. Throw in an honour guard and bands as well. It worked very well last time. The White House staff will make sure he's distracted with plenty of things to do and any intemperate social media messages or phone calls will get sandbagged and garbled as last time.

He just wants another ride on the roller coaster.

The vatniks are laughing at your naivete.

[Norgy]

Bad things could happen. But if you don't vote Democrat in some fashion next time I'll have lost an enormous pillar of metaphysical certainty. Like if you said fuck Biden I'm just going to stay home, it would come close to shattering me. 

The only way I'm not voting for Biden is if I am dead.  The prospect of a second Trump term terrifies me and the fact that it is even possible has left my faith in the American voter in tatters.

  

I think Trump pretty much terrified NATO general secretary Jens Stoltenberg too. Not with his brilliant intellect but total lack of understanding of how NATO worked.

[Tamas]

Look at you guys debating what Trump has said or hasn't said as if that matters one bit either way.

[Syt]

Look at you guys debating what Trump has said or hasn't said as if that matters one bit either way.

Unfortunately true. Engaging with MAGA faithful on the basis of facts is equally fruitless.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The POTUS cannot unilaterally withdraw from NATO.

Of course he can. It's been done many times before. For example, as part of the move to recognize the PRC, Carter unilaterally cancelled the US-Republic of China defense treaty.  He was sued by members of Congress disputing his authority and the Supreme Court ruled that the controversy was non-justiciable. As a result, the treaty became defunct.

Moreover, even if he didn't go so far as to abrogate the NATO treaty outright, he could render US adherence a dead letter by just refusing to cooperate anymore with any of the NATO structures, like France did under de Gaulle.

Trump has already made clear he isn't leaving NATO, and I simply disagree he could leave on his own.

Trump is also a consistant liar...

[Josquius]

Thinking about the replacing Biden thing.
Completely ignore his health and everything for a second. Pretend he's a perfectly healthy 55 year old.
...even there I do suspect there may be an argument for this. I'm increasingly seeing chatter about current inflation levels and the general state of things with Biden getting the blame.
Lots of the general public who don't care about the overall economic numbers looking up- they just care about what they see in their pocket, where normal people are struggling. For reasons beyond Biden's control its true. But still. He seems to be getting the blame.