What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Valmy]

Yes...but will we be sharing the correct story?

Kids, today we must all remember the heroic sacrifices Americans made in our battle against the Germans at Bull Run.

[Admiral Yi]

Isn't that what he just said?

Different.  The SEC action meant that publicly traded companies could not do business with AA even if they were indifferent to the criminal conviction.

@Joan: what I'm trying to understand is why Ken Lay and that Enron CFO did time in the big house but no one at AA did, and more to the point, why the Trump Org got convicted but not Trump himself.  Is that based on law, such as insufficient evidence to convict, or because he's too much of a hot potato to touch?

[The Minsky Moment]

Isn't that what he just said?

That's what I thought.  I was contrasting not drawing a comparison.

[The Minsky Moment]

@Joan: what I'm trying to understand is why Ken Lay and that Enron CFO did time in the big house but no one at AA did, and more to the point, why the Trump Org got convicted but not Trump himself.  Is that based on law, such as insufficient evidence to convict, or because he's too much of a hot potato to touch?

A bunch of the AA guys cooperated and testified.  At least one of them pled guilty, was convicted and then got the conviction vacated when the Supreme Court ruled no crime was committed.

[Barrister]

@Joan: what I'm trying to understand is why Ken Lay and that Enron CFO did time in the big house but no one at AA did, and more to the point, why the Trump Org got convicted but not Trump himself.  Is that based on law, such as insufficient evidence to convict, or because he's too much of a hot potato to touch?

A bunch of the AA guys cooperated and testified.  At least one of them pled guilty, was convicted and then got the conviction vacated when the Supreme Court ruled no crime was committed.

How do you appeal a guilty plea?

I mean - you can apply to strike the guilty plea, but that's entirely different...

We had a vaguely similar set of facts: this truck driver (from India) ran a stop sign and hit a bus with a junior hockey team, killing over a dozen.  It was a terrible case, but honestly as a prosecutor it didn't seem like a crime was committed (traffic offence, sure).  Nevertheless the guy felt so bad he pled guilty to criminal dangerous driving causing death almost immediately.

Later on the guy is being deported.  This he tried to fight, but too bad - he pled guilty and that was that.

[alfred russel]

Going back to Enron days, for Arthur Andersen, a criminal conviction was a death penalty for the business; no one was going to hire a convicted auditor. That the firm won on appeal was not enough to save the business.

For Trump Org., they can keep operating RE and buy/sell, but it's going to be harder to get credit, co-investors, and sponsorships.

this isn't a fair comparison.

Arthur Anderson had a significant business of auditing SEC registrants, and the SEC disallowed arthur anderson from providing that business during the time that they were convicted. So they lost a massive chunk of their clients and were effectively out of business before the conviction was overturned.

Isn't that what he just said?

It seems a material consideration that their clients were legally prohibited using a core aspect of their services while the case was under appeal. Technically JR is right that no one was going to hire them as an auditor but they weren't allowed to.

Because of reputational effects, or because of legal liability?

And is the decision to pursue charges against a corporation as opposed to individuals a political decision or is it based in law?

1. Mostly reputational but there is some linkage. I.e. one factor a lender or investor may consider is the probability they will be dragged into some ugly legal mess, receive subpoenas, etc.  The loan officer that approves Normco A can always say that if some problem happens, there was no way to know Normco wasn't normal.  The loan officer that approves credit to Convict Co T is going to have a lot of explaining to do at bonus time if problems happen with that deal.

2.  Same as with humans, but the ideal and real do not always match perfectly.

Going back to Enron days, for Arthur Andersen, a criminal conviction was a death penalty for the business; no one was going to hire a convicted auditor. That the firm won on appeal was not enough to save the business.

For Trump Org., they can keep operating RE and buy/sell, but it's going to be harder to get credit, co-investors, and sponsorships.

this isn't a fair comparison.

Arthur Anderson had a significant business of auditing SEC registrants, and the SEC disallowed arthur anderson from providing that business during the time that they were convicted. So they lost a massive chunk of their clients and were effectively out of business before the conviction was overturned.

Isn't that what he just said?

Not at all.

In the next post, Yi asked, "because of reputational risks?"

And JR responded:

"Mostly reputational but there is some linkage. I.e. one factor a lender or investor may consider is the probability they will be dragged into some ugly legal mess, receive subpoenas, etc.  The loan officer that approves Normco A can always say that if some problem happens, there was no way to know Normco wasn't normal.  The loan officer that approves credit to Convict Co T is going to have a lot of explaining to do at bonus time if problems happen with that deal."

It totally misses the elephant in the room that there was a straight up legal prohibition on using AA's core services from the time of the conviction to the appeal being overturned several years later. And even prior to that conviction, companies really needed to ditch AA because if they were conducting an audit (which sometimes takes a full year to complete) and a conviction came at some point they may be unable to get audited financial statements required by the SEC by filing deadlines.

[alfred russel]

@Joan: what I'm trying to understand is why Ken Lay and that Enron CFO did time in the big house but no one at AA did, and more to the point, why the Trump Org got convicted but not Trump himself.  Is that based on law, such as insufficient evidence to convict, or because he's too much of a hot potato to touch?

A bunch of the AA guys cooperated and testified.  At least one of them pled guilty, was convicted and then got the conviction vacated when the Supreme Court ruled no crime was committed.

David Duncan. I've been following his career. The partner on the Enron account, he has gone on to be CFO of a pipeline company and now is the managing director of a energy focused private operating group. He not only has landed on his feet; he probably has had a much better career than if he plugged away as a audit partner for the past couple decades.

When i was coming up with the name for this account, I was tempted to choose David Duncan but figured someone might be able to figure that out.

[The Minsky Moment]

In the next post, Yi asked, "because of reputational risks?"

And JR responded:

"Mostly reputational but there is some linkage. I.e. one factor a lender or investor may consider is the probability they will be dragged into some ugly legal mess, receive subpoenas, etc.  The loan officer that approves Normco A can always say that if some problem happens, there was no way to know Normco wasn't normal.  The loan officer that approves credit to Convict Co T is going to have a lot of explaining to do at bonus time if problems happen with that deal."

That was clearly a reference to Trump Org. not AA. Auditors don't usually seek the services of loan officers, real estate wheelers and dealers do.  Thought it was clear from context.

[The Minsky Moment]

How do you appeal a guilty plea?

You don't - as you indicated, you move to vacate.  Usually disfavored but that is a circumstance where it is allowed. Doesn't seem right to force someone to serve time for an offense the Supreme Court rules isn't a crime.

[Gups]

In the next post, Yi asked, "because of reputational risks?"

And JR responded:

"Mostly reputational but there is some linkage. I.e. one factor a lender or investor may consider is the probability they will be dragged into some ugly legal mess, receive subpoenas, etc.  The loan officer that approves Normco A can always say that if some problem happens, there was no way to know Normco wasn't normal.  The loan officer that approves credit to Convict Co T is going to have a lot of explaining to do at bonus time if problems happen with that deal."

That was clearly a reference to Trump Org. not AA. Auditors don't usually seek the services of loan officers, real estate wheelers and dealers do.  Thought it was clear from context.

That's how I read it. I suppose there is also a risk of loans being called in (depending on the loan terms)

[viper37]

Mark Meadows Exchanged Texts With 34 Members Of Congress About Plans To Overturn The 2020 Election

The Messages Included Battle Cries, Crackpot Legal Theories, And 'Invoking Marshall Law!!' 

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows exchanged text messages with at least 34 Republican members of Congress as they plotted to overturn President Trump's loss in the 2020 election. 

Those messages are being fully, publicly documented here for the first time. 

The texts are part of a trove Meadows turned over to the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack that was obtained by TPM. For more information about the story behind the text log and our procedures for publishing the messages, read the introduction to this series. Meadows' exchanges shed new light on the extent of congressional involvement in Trump's efforts to spread baseless conspiracy theories about his defeat and his attempts to reverse it. The messages document the role members played in the campaign to subvert the election as it was conceived, built, and reached its violent climax on Jan. 6, 2021. The texts are rife with links to far-right websites, questionable legal theories, violent rhetoric, and advocacy for authoritarian power grabs.

One message identified as coming from Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) to Meadows on January 17, 2021, three days before Joe Biden was set to take office, is a raw distillation of the various themes in the congressional correspondence. In the text, despite a typo, Norman seemed to be proposing a dramatic last ditch plan: having Trump impose martial law during his final hours in office.

The text, which has not previously been reported, is a particularly vivid example of how congressional opposition to Biden's election was underpinned by paranoid and debunked conspiracy theories like those about Dominion voting machines. Norman's text also showed the potentially violent lengths to which some congressional Republicans were willing to go in order to keep Trump in power. The log Meadows provided to the select committee does not include a response to Norman's message. 
Reached via cell phone on Monday morning, Norman asked TPM for a chance to review his messages before commenting. 

"It's been two years," Norman said. "Send that text to me and I'll take a look at it."
TPM forwarded Norman a copy of the message calling for "Marshall Law!!" We did not receive any further response from the congressman.  

Based on TPM's analysis, Meadows received at least 364 messages from Republican members of Congress who discussed attempts to reverse the election results with him. He sent at least 95 messages of his own. The committee did not respond to requests for comment. Some of Meadows' texts — notably with Fox News personalities and a couple members of Congress — have already been made public by the committee, media outlets, and in the book "The Breach." However, the full scope of his engagement with congressional Republicans as they worked to overturn the election has not previously been revealed. 

Meadows' text log shows what the scheme to reverse the election results looked like behind the scenes, revealing new details about which members of Congress helped spearhead the efforts and the strategies they deployed. The members who messaged Meadows about challenging the election included some of the highest-profile figures on the right flank in Congress, such as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), and Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL), all of whom are identified as playing leading roles in the effort to undo Trump's defeat. 

One message that was dated Dec. 30, 2020 and was identified as coming from Trump campaign adviser Jason Miller described Brooks as a "ringleader" of the effort to block the electoral certification.

[...]

[The Larch]

Ron DeSantis leads Donald Trump by 23 points in Republican poll

Florida governor takes enormous lead over embattled ex-president for 2024 race as Mike Pence nears a run of his own

Expect Trump to throw a massive hissy fit later today.

[mongers]

Ron DeSantis leads Donald Trump by 23 points in Republican poll

Florida governor takes enormous lead over embattled ex-president for 2024 race as Mike Pence nears a run of his own

Expect Trump to throw a massive hissy fit later today.

Yep bad rating drive him nuts.

Maybe he'll compare his 'viewing figures' with those of Mike Pence.

[Tonitrus]

But will he keep Ron De Sanctimonious, or switch it up?  Ron De hubris?  Ron De Penis?  Ron De Praying Mantis?

[PJL]

How about Ron De Doo Ron Ron.