What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[FunkMonk]

Hawley was more concerned about his book deal getting canceled than what happened on Wednesday. I just don't see it happening for him (successfully running for President) in a post-Jan 6th GOP. But it's early times.

[DGuller]

So since the country won't move towards 'socialism and communism' since, you know, Biden isn't a socialist or communist, what are these people going to do to slander him and the Democrats next?

Watching Russian TV is a good indicator of the line of attack to follow from Fox News.  According to what I've seen, the main line of attack is that Biden is a senile puppet of China.

[crazy canuck]

and this may well be true

may be true? - Fox news will need to replace Tucker soon - you should definitely apply.  Your version of a kinder gentler right wing nonsense speaker might appeal.

[The Brain]

Your faith in the integrity of the leaders of Capitol security is touching, but reality simply doesn't support that view.

The leaders of capitol security are Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell.

Even if we leave the name Mitch McConnell without comment here...

Is this a peculiarly American thing? Believing that, in a coup situation, because something wouldn't be supported by the official chain of command or official procedures, then it didn't happen? There's having faith, and there's being naive. There were literally Nazis beating down the doors of Congress and security declined to stop them.

[Sheilbh]

I think there is a question whether National Guard was actually needed. A few thousand of the most ridiculous losers in the country--who were apparently mostly unarmed--apparently walked into the capitol building without a shot fired to stop them. The officer who was killed apparently was hit in the head with a fire extinguisher that was in the building.

These things are always contingent though. You know, as it is, we focus on the guy in the shaman outfit because that's the most outrageous thing that happened. If the guy who was photographed carrying hundreds of cable ties had actually got near any Reps or Senators or even staffers it would be a very different story. The intentions of at least some was more serious than stealing a podium.

I think of the video of the woman who was surprised at being maced during what she desribed as a "revolution" - which I love. But there's lots of coups and revolutions that have absurd beginnings like this, but then something happens that allows them to succeed - or to fail, but are then transformed by what subsequently happens. It's why I think the Beer Hall Putsch is sort of a useful way of thinking about it - it was absurd losers, the year after it was a ridiculous end to a ridiculous movement, a decade later it was a core part of the mythology in a whole regime. But none of that was inevitable.

[Sheilbh]

Hawley was more concerned about his book deal getting canceled than what happened on Wednesday. I just don't see it happening for him (successfully running for President) in a post-Jan 6th GOP. But it's early times.

Yes. Although I think positioning himself as a victim of vicious cancel culture or that he suddenly becomes a Capitol Hill deplorable is not the worst thing that could happen if he's planning a run for President.

[Malthus]

Assuming this is truly the end of Trump's actions as president (a big assumption I know), the question in my mind is: is this damage more or less severe than you expected from him?

I'm kinda undecided.

In a way, it is worse: I never actually expected him to attempt to rile his followers into actually attacking the government, something that has dismayed America's friends, and gladdened its enemies, all over the world.

In another, it is better: as a coup attempt, it was beyond lame. Trump has, through his previous actions, shot himself in the foot - my guess is that the loss of seats in Georgia are directly attributable to him going on attacking elections. There was never any chance that a bunch of Trumpites attacking the capitol building would actually result in Trump retaining power.

[Tamas]

National Guard - you might recall just a few days ago there was a letter signed by every living Secretary of Defence talking about how the military has no place in deciding elections.  Even without Trump's influence there was probably a strong desire by the military to not get involved to any degree.  Now I don't think riot duty would count as 'interference', but that's the mind-set you'd be dealing with.

Yeah but if this is the case it is not okay to consider violent insurrection an election deciding process the army should stay clear of.

[alfred russel]

Given that he tried to phone Georgia officials 18 times, and on the recorded call was just saying how many votes he needed to find I think it's fairly likely that he was talking people about these sort of options and that's why some people resigned - and why the people in office are in place now. It didn't work, but it wasn't for want of trying.

The thing about that recorded call in Georgia: Trump never gave anything other than the impression that he believed the election was stolen from him. His message was, "there were 300,000 fraudulent votes against me--I need you to find just 12k so my win is acknowledged". Maybe he believes his own delusions and maybe he is just trying to keep plausible deniability. But either way, that is a long way from masterminding an overt violent coup.

[Jacob]

Time to pivot again:

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
The 75,000,000 great American Patriots who voted for me, AMERICA FIRST, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, will have a GIANT VOICE long into the future. They will not be disrespected or treated unfairly in any way, shape or form!!!

Right on schedule. Has he ever been in a position where he had to act decently where he didn't walk it back within 12-48 hours?

[alfred russel]

Even if we leave the name Mitch McConnell without comment here...

Is this a peculiarly American thing? Believing that, in a coup situation, because something wouldn't be supported by the official chain of command or official procedures, then it didn't happen? There's having faith, and there's being naive. There were literally Nazis beating down the doors of Congress and security declined to stop them.

So you think that congressional security conspired with the executive branch to allow in a band of misfits to disrupt the electoral vote and allow trump to remain president?

It is completely farfetched...it seems far more likely security is very reluctant to use deadly force against protestors and that allowed things to spiral out of control. Which was seen in statehouses earlier this year.

[grumbler]

I don't think that you can excuse Trump's whipping up a violent attack on the election process because he's too stupid to realize that his insurrection couldn't accomplish what he wanted.  Similarly, I don't think you can excuse his extortion attempt in the Georgia phone call even if you think Trump deluded enough to think that he won by hundreds of thousands of imaginary votes.   

Stupidity is not a criminal defense.

[The Brain]

Even if we leave the name Mitch McConnell without comment here...

Is this a peculiarly American thing? Believing that, in a coup situation, because something wouldn't be supported by the official chain of command or official procedures, then it didn't happen? There's having faith, and there's being naive. There were literally Nazis beating down the doors of Congress and security declined to stop them.

So you think that congressional security conspired with the executive branch to allow in a band of misfits to disrupt the electoral vote and allow trump to remain president?

It is completely farfetched...it seems far more likely security is very reluctant to use deadly force against protestors and that allowed things to spiral out of control. Which was seen in statehouses earlier this year.

*shrug* I used to think a Nazi Shaman chairing the US Senate was farfetched...

[Sheilbh]

The thing about that recorded call in Georgia: Trump never gave anything other than the impression that he believed the election was stolen from him. His message was, "there were 300,000 fraudulent votes against me--I need you to find just 12k so my win is acknowledged". Maybe he believes his own delusions and maybe he is just trying to keep plausible deniability. But either way, that is a long way from masterminding an overt violent coup.

Agreed. My view is I think Trump does believe in his own delusions (even though he might know they're not true) in the same way as he belives the bullshit he chats about his properties or his performance in reality TV or his sexual prowess on page 6. I don't think he really sees a difference between reality and the reality he projects. So in my view he absolutely believes he won the election and it was stolen from him, because he is not a loser. The only way he could lose is because he's been cheated etc. I also think that his view of what being President is, is basically that he is Mayor of the country based on his understanding of NY in the 70s and 80s.

And I think that chat is probably the sort he would have had with people in the DoD. It'll be "this thing's been stolen from me - can I rely on you" etc. I suspect that's a conversation he's had with lots of people - Senators, Governors, Generals - that will have made them all very uncomfortable.

[alfred russel]

These things are always contingent though. You know, as it is, we focus on the guy in the shaman outfit because that's the most outrageous thing that happened. If the guy who was photographed carrying hundreds of cable ties had actually got near any Reps or Senators or even staffers it would be a very different story. The intentions of at least some was more serious than stealing a podium.

I think of the video of the woman who was surprised at being maced during what she desribed as a "revolution" - which I love. But there's lots of coups and revolutions that have absurd beginnings like this, but then something happens that allows them to succeed - or to fail, but are then transformed by what subsequently happens. It's why I think the Beer Hall Putsch is sort of a useful way of thinking about it - it was absurd losers, the year after it was a ridiculous end to a ridiculous movement, a decade later it was a core part of the mythology in a whole regime. But none of that was inevitable.

I can't find a count online of how many people broke in...for some reason I think I heard 2,500 but that could be wrong. It is such an absurdly low number. There are almost that many members of capitol security (not all of whom were working). There are 535 congresspeople and senators, and together with their staffs and security plus the VP and his security / staff, must have  outnumbered these people.

The Trump movement isn't at the Beer Hall Putsch stage. It just got 70+ million votes and lost the election by about 0.7% of the vote (looking at the tipping point state). They just did better than the brownshirts ever did in an election. They have an elderly leader. If this is the best they can muster...