What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[The Minsky Moment]

I'm a big Frum fan, and read the book that quote comes from.  I think you're reading the quote wrong.

It's not that "if conservatives become convinced that they will not win", but rather can.  That conservative ideas can get a fair hearing.

His point is that if the culture continues to try and define certain ideals or positions as "beyond the pale", that they can not even be debated or discussed, it's not that people who hold such beliefs are going to go away.  Whether that be a belief is being pro-life, being opposed to immigration (which is what I think specifically Frum was talking about), belief in biologically determined gender, or whatever.

That makes it even worse I think.  The premise is that there is some sort of alien monolithic "The Culture" out there oppressing conservatives.  It's one America; "the culture" comes from everyone.  If people go to Church less, that isn't an attack on people who still go.  If people marry less, that isn't an attack on married people. (In fact urban liberals are marrying more, marriage is declining in the more conservative heartlands). If increasing majorities of people decide that shaming gay people and denying them civil rights is no longer an "American" thing to do, that isn't stopping people from thinking whatever they want to think about same-sex relationships. 

It's pretty awful to take the view that if political outcomes don't go your way in the public sphere it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.
It's just as awful if not worse to take the view that if civil society evolves in a different way that you would like it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.

[Barrister]

It's pretty awful to take the view that if political outcomes don't go your way in the public sphere it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.
It's just as awful if not worse to take the view that if civil society evolves in a different way that you would like it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.

It's not that an issue goes against you - it's when you can no longer even discuss a given issue.

[Berkut]

It's pretty awful to take the view that if political outcomes don't go your way in the public sphere it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.
It's just as awful if not worse to take the view that if civil society evolves in a different way that you would like it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.

It's not that an issue goes against you - it's when you can no longer even discuss a given issue.

When has it been unacceptable to discuss gay marriage?

[Berkut]

I am the #1 cheerleader on Languish for bashing identity politics and the stifling of free speech on the left.

But you have got be in-fucking-sane to pretend that the rights attacks on democratic institutions has anything to do with overly woke leftards screaming and yelling at their professors.

[Zoupa]

It's pretty awful to take the view that if political outcomes don't go your way in the public sphere it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.
It's just as awful if not worse to take the view that if civil society evolves in a different way that you would like it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.

It's not that an issue goes against you - it's when you can no longer even discuss a given issue.

We're discussing them right now. Wth are you talking about.

[Barrister]

It's pretty awful to take the view that if political outcomes don't go your way in the public sphere it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.
It's just as awful if not worse to take the view that if civil society evolves in a different way that you would like it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.

It's not that an issue goes against you - it's when you can no longer even discuss a given issue.

We're discussing them right now. Wth are you talking about.

I don't think Frum thinks we've quite gotten to that point either.  It's more that it was a warning.

I'll try to dig out my copy of Trumpocracy and get the wider context of that quote.

[Berkut]

It's pretty awful to take the view that if political outcomes don't go your way in the public sphere it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.
It's just as awful if not worse to take the view that if civil society evolves in a different way that you would like it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.

It's not that an issue goes against you - it's when you can no longer even discuss a given issue.

We're discussing them right now. Wth are you talking about.

I don't think Frum thinks we've quite gotten to that point either.  It's more that it was a warning.

I'll try to dig out my copy of Trumpocracy and get the wider context of that quote.

But we HAVE gotten to the point where the right has repudiated democracy. So I am not sure what you are getting at here...

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpUlp5taIGw

US deploys troops to Saudi Arabia. "Primarily air and missile defense."

[Razgovory]

It's pretty awful to take the view that if political outcomes don't go your way in the public sphere it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.
It's just as awful if not worse to take the view that if civil society evolves in a different way that you would like it's OK to repudiate democracy and try to enforce your views by force and chicanery.

It's not that an issue goes against you - it's when you can no longer even discuss a given issue.

That's a terrible criteria.  There are plenty of issues we no longer discuss.  This sort of thinking is very, very similar to southern conservative thinking in the 1850's.  Southerners were deeply offended that their absolute right to rob, rape and murder people was not getting a fair hearing. They made similar warnings, and engaged in similar acts of force and chicanery.  They frequently blamed immigrants coming to the US for shifting the culture away from the acceptance of their perverse, destructive and disgusting ways.  And when they lost control of Federal Government they made good on their threats, started a war that killed hundreds of thousands of people.

[Sheilbh]

He lies because he's indifferent to facts.  It's not a master plan.

I don't even know if he's indifferent to facts, it's more that he's indifferent to what his role is. I think he's just a bullshitter and liar who sees no difference between running a country and ringing up Page 6 to boast about how good he is in bed.

This is stated as something that may happen.

There is no may happen, it is already happening and has been for some time, at least ten years or more.

I worry about someone competent learning from Trump. If he had the political skills and basic competence of others in his model, say, Salvini or Orban I'm not convinced the institutions will resist.

[Zanza]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpUlp5taIGw

US deploys troops to Saudi Arabia. "Primarily air and missile defense."

Wasn't Al Qaeda founded partially in response to US deployments in Saudi Arabia?

[Tonitrus]

We'd probably be better off staying out and letting Saudi Arabia try to do what Saddam failed at...except Iraq probably wouldn't stop the IRGC from rolling right across to Riyadh.

[Razgovory]

We'd probably be better off staying out and letting Saudi Arabia try to do what Saddam failed at...except Iraq probably wouldn't stop the IRGC from rolling right across to Riyadh.

I think that be what we end up doing.  Trump doesn't have much of stomach for a war, and his actions have made a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran a possibility.  Iran will continue to escalate to the point where Trump faces two choices: War or withdrawal.  Both would be a disaster.  Well, at least we know that Iranian attacks on shipping were not a "false flag".

[Solmyr]

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/shock-and-awe-iran-style

The conclusion seems to be that SA will fall apart very quickly if it came to war, barring US support. MBS seems to be a tool and has no friends except Trump (who is only his friend because he pays cash).

[Tonitrus]

Yeah...SA's military feels like it is barely competent, and the Houthis seem to be showing them up pretty badly.  I think they'd be shitting their britches and scrambling hard for nukes if we bailed out of there.