The Presidential Debate, "Episode 1: The Phantom Menace" Megathread

[The Minsky Moment]

Apparently Trump has said that he wasn't sick and any noise was because of issues with the mic. He didn't want to get into conspiracies but wondered if it was purposefully that way.

He was nervous at the beginning.  No question.  Not just the sniffling which was worse at the beginning but he was talking quickly and his voice had a little break in it.

[crazy canuck]

My  favourite bit was when she accused him of not paying taxes and he remarked "I'm smart."

Mine was when she mentioned that he had hoped for the crash so he could buy up property and he said "its called business"

[CountDeMoney]

Which means either one of two things must be true:
1.  He will increase personal taxes
2.  He will default on the debt.

Pick your poison.

He's going to renegotiate our deals, man.  Because international trade is the same as redoing those monthly payments for that recliner sectional with Rent-A-Center.  lol, $17 for the next 450 months at 340%.

[Zanza]

Before i get accused by Raz and Grumbler of plagiarism. This below aint mine.


On "income inequality", Trump need only bring up a few points:.

He's not going to do any of that.
Because Trump intends to spend a lot more $$ - on roads, on child care, etc.
He also intends to cut corporate tax.

Which means either one of two things must be true:
1.  He will increase personal taxes
2.  He will default on the debt.

Pick your poison.

I thought Trump is an adherent of the Laffer Curve. If so, he can lower taxes and increase tax revenue!

[DontSayBanana]

Before i get accused by Raz and Grumbler of plagiarism. This below aint mine.


On "income inequality", Trump need only bring up a few points:

No one ever got a job from a poor person.

The healthcare industry called and would like a word.

The "rich" already pay the lion's share of taxes, well above 70%.

Please define what you mean by "fair share" when you consider that nearly 50% of workers pay nothing at all.

Except Trump's argument centers around the "successful" offshoring American jobs, because it only makes economic sense.  Or did you miss the quarter hour he spent ranting about NAFTA?

Most "rich" people don't sit on their money but build businesses or invest in businesses which create jobs which allow people to have incomes and families and homes.

Actually, 99.7% of businesses are "small" businesses as defined by the SBA, the bulk of which are self-funded ventures of 1-4 employees, which may also make a dent in your "nobody got a job from a poor person" argument as well.

Taxing the "rich" out of some misguided Marxist concept of "fairness" doesn't much harm the rich because, well, they're rich. But it does harm the poor because businesses will inevitably pass on those costs to the consumer which hurts the poor more than any other group.

Government "jobs" are a fiction since all the money to pay people must come from taxation or debt or the printing of money out of thin air, all of which are harmful to the economy.

If the government confiscated every dime from every "rich" person in the Country, it would not even pay the deficit for one single year. And after that, the Country would collapse since all private businesses would be broke and cease to exist.

You're confusing "wealth" and "currency."  If your definition of "rich" is liquid cash assets, most of the "rich" aren't rich, either.  Also, how can you talk about government jobs being a fiction when the "economy" is largely measured in GDP, which consists partly... of the owed wages generated by employees doing their work.  By your standards, finance shouldn't contribute to GDP, either, which would shrink the economy by over a third.

[Jacob]

Did anyone's opinion change after the debate?  Not just switching from supporting Trump to Clinton or vice versa; but was anyone planning to vote third party but now will vote for Hil or Don?  Or was anyone planning not to vote but will now (or planning to vote but now will not)?

I reckon it's all incremental. If the spectrum runs something like "Committed to Trump, Leaning Trump, Staying Home/ Voting 3rd Party, Leaning Clinton, Committed to Clinton" I think more people got pushed a few points towards Clinton from that debate than vice versa. In most cases that doesn't really change what an individual will do, but over time and across the board it still matters - but it's not the sport event "do or die" "the whole thing is determined RIGHT HERE" kind of event.

I think it also think that current events have a larger impact on people who only start paying attention that very moment - so people who are just beginning to pay attention will tend to see Clinton more favourably than Trump based on the debate.

[Jacob]

The temperament bits were pretty good too - https://youtu.be/Y7ys8bmTf5U

[garbon]

No one gives a shit about the 20% of American voters who would support Trump if he walked on stage wearing a giant swastika on his chest shouting "SLAVERY WAS GOOD"

What he should be angling for are the softer parts of the Republican electorate, making sure they stick with him and don't vote for Johnson or, God forbid, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

I think anyone that supports Trump, however tepidly, has either made their peace with the fact that he knows nothing of policy and is contemptuous of the truth, and/or thinks HRC is the literal anti-Christ. I don't think he was humiliated enough Monday night to change these people's minds. Thinking people capable of evaluating the debate independent of Sean Hannity/Rush Limbaugh/etc. already are against Trump.

But you are missing that there are people in polls who only recently supported him. I suppose one could say that they took so long to come to his side that it has been a long, measured decision - but I'd argue that they aren't so firmly in the Trump camp and they are still in play particularly as it happened after Clinton's terrible weekend.

[garbon]

My  favourite bit was when she accused him of not paying taxes and he remarked "I'm smart."

Mine was when she mentioned that he had hoped for the crash so he could buy up property and he said "its called business"

He can't help but brag even when what he's bragging about is a bad quality to have in a president.

[garbon]

I like the WaPo joke summary of the debate:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/compost/wp/2016/09/27/last-nights-debate-or-the-mansplaining-olympics/?utm_term=.947f0ac92f58

CLINTON: Can I respond? I heard there would not be any fact-checking this debate, so I brought my own. I just want to explain what your plan would actually do. It is like trickle-down economics, but even worse. I came up with a fun nickname for it because my campaign wanted to make sure I created moments of "levity" instead of just "lecturing." This is the straitjacket of speaking while female. "Trumped-up trickle-down," we call it. Is that fun? By my standards, that seems fun. Donald, your business started when your dad loaned you $14 million.

CLINTON: (makes carefully neutral facial expression that must have taken 10 weeks to practice)

TRUMP: "We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble." The Fed is bad. "The Fed — is doing political." Soon Obama will go to the golf course, and then, you know, it will not be good, because they will do something to the rates. And you won't like it one bit! Please someone else talk now.

CLINTON: Where did you read this? Was it on a drunk person's Facebook wall? Are you still friends with this person? Because I wouldn't be.

HOLT: And now, please, take two minutes to discuss America's complex legacy of racial problems. Secretary Clinton, you first.

CLINTON: Here is a complex and thoughtful response about the need for criminal justice reform that I have clearly been working on for some time, because it is not at ALL what I would have said in the '90s.

TRUMP: Listen. Two words: law and order. I guess that's three words. Stop and frisk. Wait, no, also three words.

HOLT: Three unconstitutional words.

TRUMP: No, no, I am pretty sure that is wrong. It went before a judge who was a very Anti-Police Judge.

HOLT: You mean a judge who found it was unconstitutional because it was a form of racial profiling?

TRUMP: No, listen, we need Law and Order. Benson and Stabler. To make us a Stabler nation.

CLINTON: Stabler was on "SVU." I bet you can't even name the police officers on regular "Law and Order."

CLINTON: Obviously. Yes. Obviously. You have interrupted me 70 times to say nonsense remarks that indicate you have not the faintest idea what you are talking about. Seventy times. I have spent my life doing this. You decided, like, last year that you were mildly interested in it and that you would probably be great at it. I wish I had that confidence. I wish any little girl did.

If I had coughed even once on this stage, I would have lost this debate instantly. And so you know what? I did not cough. Not even once. You sniffed and you lectured and you made faces and you sighed. And I stood there. Impassive. Like a screensaver. I focus-grouped my number of blinks.

But maybe it worked. Maybe, just this once, America saw a man yammer on for an hour and a half about a subject he knew nothing about to a woman who had spent her lifetime in that field, and America said, "Oh," quietly, to itself. Maybe. But knowing America, maybe also not.

[Berkut]

Trump has mastered, if that is the right word, the trick of putting so much ridiculous bullshit into a sentence that you cannot even begin to unpack it all.

An anti-police judge? It is such a ridiculously stupid thing to say, but he doesn't even get called on it because it is like the 4th most stupid thing in the entire paragraph of babbling.

[garbon]

Trump has mastered, if that is the right word, the trick of putting so much ridiculous bullshit into a sentence that you cannot even begin to unpack it all.

An anti-police judge? It is such a ridiculously stupid thing to say, but he doesn't even get called on it because it is like the 4th most stupid thing in the entire paragraph of babbling.

Well Holt didn't call him out on anti-police judge but did press again that the issue was that the law was racially biased which did set up Hillary's rebuke. Attacking Trump on nonsense words is not likely to get anyone any points.

[The Minsky Moment]

I like the WaPo joke summary of the debate:

I know what Gen. MacArthur would have thought of that. He would not have liked it ONE BIT. Gen. MacArthur is a person from history whose name I have suddenly remembered.

[garbon]

I like the WaPo joke summary of the debate:

I know what Gen. MacArthur would have thought of that. He would not have liked it ONE BIT. Gen. MacArthur is a person from history whose name I have suddenly remembered.

It was too close to what he actually said that I couldn't quote it.

Also, I did see they should that he apparently has a love affair with MacArthur. He mentioned him back in 2003 during the Iraq war when it was mentioned on the news about our strategy for the war.

[Jacob]

They share a similar policy on nukes, I guess.