The Korean War

[mongers]

.... Part Two?

Are we reaching a point were there is a very real possibility of a war breaking out on the Korean peninsula, either by design or accident?

At the weekend the South Korean media was full of reports that echo the tone of the bluster that usually come from the north, talk of levelling Pyongyang and a decapitation strike against the north's leadership.

So what do you think are the possibilities and likely events over the next few months?

[Monoriu]

I don't think a real war will break out.  The North is in no position to fight a full scale war.  They know this and won't press the button.  It is all bluff.  The South doesn't want to sacrifice thousands of people and spend the next few decades rebuilding the North from scratch.  And risk Chinese involvement.  They'll wait for the Kim dynasty to implode.  The most likely scenario is that some kind of coup or rebellion happens in the North, and the South will be forced will step in, if only to take care of the massive refugee problem.

[mongers]

I don't think a real war will break out.  The North is in no position to fight a full scale war.  They know this and won't press the button.  It is all bluff.  The South doesn't want to sacrifice thousands of people and spend the next few decades rebuilding the North from scratch.  And risk Chinese involvement.  They'll wait for the Kim dynasty to implode.  The most likely scenario is that some kind of coup or rebellion happens in the North, and the South will be forced will step in, if only to take care of the massive refugee problem.

Replace Kim dynasty with Austro-hungarian, The South with Russia, China with German etc. Mono, you get my drift right?

[CountDeMoney]

The Kim regime will come to an end only when China decides that even they've had enough of their shit--but before things get to the point that the opportunity exists for the North to leave the red team and go blue, though.

[Ed Anger]

I assume Tim will be Napalmed.

[dps]

By "assume" do you mean "hope"?   

[The Brain]

I don't think a real war will break out.  The North is in no position to fight a full scale war.  They know this and won't press the button.  It is all bluff.  The South doesn't want to sacrifice thousands of people and spend the next few decades rebuilding the North from scratch.  And risk Chinese involvement.  They'll wait for the Kim dynasty to implode.  The most likely scenario is that some kind of coup or rebellion happens in the North, and the South will be forced will step in, if only to take care of the massive refugee problem.

Replace Kim dynasty with Austro-hungarian, The South with Russia, China with German etc. Mono, you get my drift right?

Sounds expensive and impractical.

[jimmy olsen]

.... Part Two?

Are we reaching a point were there is a very real possibility of a war breaking out on the Korean peninsula, either by design or accident?

At the weekend the South Korean media was full of reports that echo the tone of the bluster that usually come from the north, talk of levelling Pyongyang and a decapitation strike against the north's leadership.

So what do you think are the possibilities and likely events over the next few months?

I sure hope not, I work less than 200 meters from the Sejong Government Complex

[Eddie Teach]

The South shall rise again.

[Josquius]

No. We've been here before.  Remember a decade ago the north said it was tearing up the cease fire. Nothing happened.
It's just typical nork bluster to try and extract more aid. By its nature they have to keep trying to up the ante

[CountDeMoney]

No. We've been here before.  Remember a decade ago the north said it was tearing up the cease fire. Nothing happened.
It's just typical nork bluster to try and extract more aid. By its nature they have to keep trying to up the ante

A decade ago...hell, search Languish for all the ZOMG COULD IT BE: WARZ? threads.

And if intentionally sinking a ship isn't going to spark a military response, then shitty little launches and tests aren't, either.  The ROK has become it's own K-drama:  effeminate, non-threatening brooding angst.

[jimmy olsen]

No. We've been here before.  Remember a decade ago the north said it was tearing up the cease fire. Nothing happened.
It's just typical nork bluster to try and extract more aid. By its nature they have to keep trying to up the ante

A decade ago...hell, search Languish for all the ZOMG COULD IT BE: WARZ? threads.

And if intentionally sinking a ship isn't going to spark a military response, then shitty little launches and tests aren't, either.  The ROK has become it's own K-drama:  effeminate, non-threatening brooding angst.

The politics of the issue have changed. The ROK would retaliate to a similar provocation today.

[CountDeMoney]

The politics of the issue have changed. The ROK would retaliate to a similar provocation today.

I call bullshit.

[jimmy olsen]

The politics of the issue have changed. The ROK would retaliate to a similar provocation today.

I call bullshit.

I'm just saying what I've heard. The rhetoric from the politicians and the man on the street is different these days.

[Monoriu]

Over the years North Korea has bombed at least one plane, tried to assassinate the South Korean president, sunk at least one South Korean military ship, bombarded an island inhabited by civilians and caused more than one death, etc etc.  Can't remember any notable response or retaliation from South Korea.  I won't be surprised if the South Koreans are fed up with this and demand that their government take a more hardline response.