Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[The Larch]

Jacob Rees-Mogg blocking major UK tourism campaign

Exclusive: Despite 'Global Britain' rhetoric, Brexit opportunities minister refused to sign off budget to revive pandemic-hit industry


Jacob Rees-Mogg is blocking a major government-backed tourism campaign – despite being a vocal advocate of "Global Britain".

The planned advertising blitz is aimed at bringing back tourists from key international markets including India, China, Australia, Japan and Canada to boost visitor numbers in the wake of the pandemic.

But Rees-Mogg, in his role as Brexit opportunities and government efficiencies minister, has refused to sign off the department for culture's £800,000 budget – part of a cross-Whitehall recovery plan agreed at the last spending review – despite agreeing a separate £4m for VisitBritain campaigns.

International tourism this year is still 20% down on 2019 as a result of Covid, dropping 40% in August due to reduced airport or flight capacity, perceptions of the UK abroad and the initial post-pandemic travel bounce tailing off.

Whitehall insiders have warned the Cabinet Office minister that many small businesses and visitor attractions are suffering as a result. Visitors from the 16 key countries account for a significant proportion of income at arts and culture institutions, including more than 50% of spending at heritage sites.

Rees-Mogg, who is tipped to take over as business secretary under Liz Truss, is understood to be sceptical of government advertising campaigns in general and to have doubts about the value of tourism promotions in countries with populations that may decide to travel to Britain regardless.

However, his decision to reject the extra funding flies in the face of his regular comments supporting "Global Britain" and bolstering the UK's reputation internationally, as well as leaving the UK tourism industry struggling to catch up.

A senior government source said: "Jacob Rees-Mogg is totally unsuited to modern governance. His kneejerk ideological stubbornness halted British tourism from being promoted in key international markets, at the very time when many sectors are still on their knees from Covid. He may wrap himself in the union jack at home, but he is unwilling to fly that flag abroad."

It is understood that the tourism minister Nigel Huddleston had raised the issue with Rees-Mogg, warning him that Britain risked falling behind other European destinations such as France, Italy and Germany in winning back foreign tourists at a time when competition for business is fierce.

A source close to Rees-Mogg said: "This has been a protracted negotiation between departments. It is perfectly acceptable for ministers to question the value of each proposed campaign. Is it the best use of taxpayers' money and is it going to deliver the results they want to see?"

[Sheilbh]

I'm hoping that immensely clever civil servants and economic advisors are working on plans as we speak and will persuade Truss to adopt them once she becomes PM 

Apparently it is being run like an election campaign - so the civil service have meetings with both leadership campaigns to start planning in case they win.

Of course the Treasury's bright idea on a windfall tax was that it would hit renewable suppliers because they benefit from the increase in prices, but aren't exposed to the gas wholesale price - which makes a sort of sense economically, but is idiotic in every other way

Plus all of Sunak's wrong pushing to end covid support etc had the full support of the Treasury who were very alarmed at the costs. I wouldn't hold my breath for the civil service to save us

They need to move fast if they're going to help businesses. Smart business owners don't wait until they are bankrupt if it's obvious they're unavoidably going to fail in a a few months.

Yeah. I think this is where it's not easy and you need government to make decisions because I can see a case that actually energy intensive industries need most support - on the other hand they're possibly the ones that could most benefit from shifts to reduce their consumption and they might be big employers/not particularly picturesque.

I slightly worry that focusing on small businesses and high street hospitality might be a bit like donating to the donkey santuary - but I've no evidence for that

Don't really have an issue with that Rees-Mogg story - beyond the fact that the DCMS budget is over £2 billion and I'm not sure an £800,000 spend should be reaching the cabinet

Edit: Reports in the Sunday Telegraph on Truss' cabinet if she wins:

Sam Freedman
@Samfr
Sun Tel think this is the new cabinet:

Kwarteng - Chancellor
Cleverly - Foreign
Braverman - Home
Wallace - MOD
Coffey - Health
Brandon Lewis - Justice
Rees-Mogg - BEIS
Chloe Smith - DWP
Zahawi - Cabinet office
Clarke - Levelling Up
Morton - Chief Whip
Jayawardena - Environment

Braverman to Home Office really feels like someone with a monkey's paw wished for Patel to be replaced. Rees-Mogg at BEIS is insane (hopefully energy is moved to the environment brief). As for the rest - feels like it could be a lot worse. Unclear where Badenoch's going but she'll have a role and reports that Mordaunt is being difficult to place.

Kwarteng is obviously the key appointment given the current crisis - interesting to see what a man who wrote a (well-reviewed) monetary history makes of the Treasury right now.

[Syt]

How is the overall mood in the country? I've seen a few people commenting that while things in UK become ever more dreary (and have been for years), the ruling politicians can do whatever, while the populace, by and large, is resigned to just muddle through whatever comes without much enthusiasm or hope for things looking up anytime soon? There's a lot of discussion of UK politics in our group here, but how representative is that of the UK in general?

[Zanza]

I am skeptical that libertarians like Truss and Kwarteng are the right politicians to handle the current CoL/inflation/energy crisis. I feel that these will necessitate market intervention instead of laissez-faire.
A trade war with the EU also seems counter-productive.

[Richard Hakluyt]

How is the overall mood in the country? I've seen a few people commenting that while things in UK become ever more dreary (and have been for years), the ruling politicians can do whatever, while the populace, by and large, is resigned to just muddle through whatever comes without much enthusiasm or hope for things looking up anytime soon? There's a lot of discussion of UK politics in our group here, but how representative is that of the UK in general?

If I wasn't interested in politics I'm not sure that I would have noticed anything amiss. The problems are concentrated on a relatively small group of unfortunates. There is constant grumbling of course, but that is the national character.

Which is where these increased energy costs come in; they totally cut across and will be noticed by even the most politically indifferent. I've seen comparisons with the attempted introduction of the poll tax in 1990 (1989 in Scotland which was a gift to the SNP...the sheer stupidity is mind-boggling; I doubt any of these people would make a half-decent Victoria 3 player).

Back in 1990 we had a few riots and lots of non-compliance (me and my wife literally could not afford to pay it); so Thatcher was toppled and a replacement tax was introduced that raised far less than the original (and fair) system. I think this winter will see similar social unrest and non-compliance, it is going to be interesting.

[Tamas]

In her most thorough interview in the Conservative leadership campaign, a day before she is widely expected to be declared the winner, Truss said she would provide immediate help over energy bills, but declined to say what.

"What I can say is that if I'm elected as prime minister, within one week I will make sure there is an announcement on how we are going to deal with the issue of energy bills, and of long-term supply, to put this country on the right footing for winter," Truss told BBC One's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg show.

"I understand that people are struggling, that businesses are also concerned about their energy bills and the impact it could have on their future. So what I want to reassure people is, I will act."

But under repeated questioning, Truss refused to give any details, saying she would only set this out if she defeated Rishi Sunak to become Tory leader on Monday. She would then take over from Boris Johnson as prime minister the next day.

Since this person with this attitude is set to be selected as Prime Minister, everyone should adopt this approach at job interview: "I will not answer any questions until after you have hired me"

[Richard Hakluyt]

An interesting little brexit tale :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/04/it-was-a-brexit-export-champion-now-kent-brewery-has-one-eu-customer-left

A craft brewery chosen to help champion export opportunities for the government after Brexit has had its exports collapse from £600k to £2k.

A shame for the Europeans who enjoyed those beers too; though less of an existential problem.

[Sheilbh]

Since this person with this attitude is set to be selected as Prime Minister, everyone should adopt this approach at job interview: "I will not answer any questions until after you have hired me"

I quite liked Joe Lycett's response on the same show
https://twitter.com/BeardedGenius/status/1566349321750171648?s=20&t=5F8LDQ1z2iyXBqDeAeOyKg

Politically she's doing the right thing - say you'll act but not get drawn into the details because it's likely to be massive emergency spending. Reporting on this has been a bit mixed though - I saw one saying it was about a £100 billion package (which I think is about the right size given the scale of the issue) while another said that Tory MPs were worried it would be inadequate and she'd have to u-turn in her first few weeks to do more.

How is the overall mood in the country? I've seen a few people commenting that while things in UK become ever more dreary (and have been for years), the ruling politicians can do whatever, while the populace, by and large, is resigned to just muddle through whatever comes without much enthusiasm or hope for things looking up anytime soon? There's a lot of discussion of UK politics in our group here, but how representative is that of the UK in general?

Well - we're all very anti-Tory on this board so you're getting a slice. The last 12 years have reminded of John O'Farrell's book Things Can Only Get Better about being a young Labour activist in the 80s - he's a satirist and it's very funny.

We all pick up on stories about how awful things are because we're anti-Tory and we want them to lose. I suspect those people are similarly inclined. If you zoom out a bit though UK GDP since 2010 has grown by about as much as Canada's or France's - it's a little less than Germany but more than, say, Spain or Italy. We've basically got full employment - unemployment's at 3.8% and (for the minute) it's a tight labour market where there are more reported vacancies than jobseekers. And for those 12 years inflation was low and interest rates were low.

As RH says Osborne's cuts were very targeted. The NHS wasn't cut and education had pretty small cuts. There were huge cuts to local government, who are responsible for things like homelessness, social care etc. Osborne said they were applied "fairly" as a percentage of central government funding - the problem is rich (normally Tory led) councils raise more income through property taxes so rely less on central funding. The impact was disproportionately felt by the poorest communities.

There were also cuts to the benefits budget - especially the benefits cap, the bedroom tax and the two child benefit cap. Again these really mainly hit relatively few people but hit them really hard (reversing these policies would probably be my number 1 priority). Osborne looked at cutting, say, child tax credit and there was so much resistance he had to u-turn - that's a universal benefit for all people with children and the combination of that, the NHS and education budgets is I've swung entirely from thinking you should target spending to where it can do most good to universalism even if it's less help.

But I think if you're in work, not living in a big city with a housing crisis then you won't have noticed much - in addition it's been a decade of cheap credit so many people who aren't necessarily traditional Tory voters have been able to "live like Tories". Have a mortgage on a nice, new Barrett house, afford a couple of big overseas holidays a year, buy a new car every few years etc.

I think things have shifted now. Partly because of local government cuts - people (rightly) laugh at the levelling up budget spending money on flower pots for high streets but the public realm feels visibly run down now. If you live in or go to a big city there is a real visible problem of rough sleeping that didn't exist pre-2010. The NHS budget has been protected, but it is creaeking (John Burn-Murdoch did a great thread on this: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728). Low level crime has basically been legalised because police funding was cut quite steeply and if you just get mugged, or burgled etc - nothing will happen except getting a crime number so you can claim on the insurance. I think that's why Johnson's strategy of more spending prticularly on things like levelling up which can shovel cash to local councils and the police was probably a sensible one.

Then add the cost of living crisis and particularly energy which affects everyone. All of those people who were doing okay but, with the help of cheap credit, were able to live pretty well are in a very different position now. The people who were already worst hit by Osborne's decades of cuts are even more screwed.

Edit: Also I think it's worth noting that we all share Guardian articles because it's the paper that doesn't have a paywall. Kath Viner who's the editor has said in one of her newsletters that the Guardian's mission is to get rid of this awful government - and I have no problem with that. But I think it does mean it's a bit like if we all got our news and shared articles from the Telegraph (but I think if your goal is more than just making money, it's a vindication of the Guardian's no paywall strategy).

Edit: And there's the Labour side to the story because what governments can get away with depend on oppositions and I think there was real despair that the options people were presented with were Johnson and May v Corbyn. Lots of people, especially in Tory areas, who might have been tempted by the Lib Dems, Greens or a New Labour style party held their nose to keep Corbyn out.

Which is where these increased energy costs come in; they totally cut across and will be noticed by even the most politically indifferent. I've seen comparisons with the attempted introduction of the poll tax in 1990 (1989 in Scotland which was a gift to the SNP...the sheer stupidity is mind-boggling; I doubt any of these people would make a half-decent Victoria 3 player).

Back in 1990 we had a few riots and lots of non-compliance (me and my wife literally could not afford to pay it); so Thatcher was toppled and a replacement tax was introduced that raised far less than the original (and fair) system. I think this winter will see similar social unrest and non-compliance, it is going to be interesting.

Yeah I think the Don't Pay campaign - and actually the Enough is Enough campaign - are ones to watch. At the peak of the poll tax you had 17 million people refusing to pay. The riots get the attention but it was enormously widespread civil disobedience. Of course John Major won the next election so...

Similarly I think it is really interesting that even if most people aren't saying they're supporting strikes, they do say they understand why they're happening which I don't think has really been the case since the 70s.

But having said that in a weird way I'm weirdly pretty sanguine about it, because the costs are so high that I think any government will have to respond pretty massively. It's a bit like the covid support - I think it's inevitable.

[Sheilbh]

Separately for Tamas - Johnson and his wife are selling their house (walking distance from where I live) and moving to Dulwich/Herne Hill which are very Remainy, Labour voting areas (Tessa Jowell used to be the MP).

And the Times managed to sum up British politics in two paragraphs:

The prime minister is rumoured to have bought a house for £3.5 million in an upmarket road in Herne Hill, though residents are not enthusiastic about their potential new neighbour.

One said: "All the locals have been talking about it and wondering if it's true. It is a Labour constituency and there is a worry that his arrival will reduce house prices."

[Tamas]

Separately for Tamas - Johnson and his wife are selling their house (walking distance from where I live) and moving to Dulwich/Herne Hill which are very Remainy, Labour voting areas (Tessa Jowell used to be the MP).

And the Times managed to sum up British politics in two paragraphs:

The prime minister is rumoured to have bought a house for £3.5 million in an upmarket road in Herne Hill, though residents are not enthusiastic about their potential new neighbour.

One said: "All the locals have been talking about it and wondering if it's true. It is a Labour constituency and there is a worry that his arrival will reduce house prices."

  That IS British politics in two short paragraphs, it's incredible 

[Zanza]

An interesting little brexit tale :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/04/it-was-a-brexit-export-champion-now-kent-brewery-has-one-eu-customer-left

A craft brewery chosen to help champion export opportunities for the government after Brexit has had its exports collapse from £600k to £2k.

A shame for the Europeans who enjoyed those beers too; though less of an existential problem.

That is the kind of adverse trade effects that were expected. Obviously a billion pound operation like Nissan Sunderland can just hire someone to do the paperwork for export to the continent and moving 10.000 cars needs just slightly more paperwork than shipping a few crates of craft beer...

[Josquius]

Truly a golden age for red tape smiths.

[Sheilbh]

As I've mentioned before the UK closed its gas storage in 2016 - it is now being re-opened which will be helpful hopefully. But a consequence of this is that we haven't used the summer filling up our gas storage, but we have a decent amount of LNG capacity (and extract some gas ourselves). The pipleines to Europe have also been running at capacity all summer helping gas storage in the rest of Europe meet its targets which is very good news.

But it turns out we will now probably be buying that same gas back at market price over winter

I'm begging for someone in the British state to please think just more than one step ahead and just consider the possibility that things might not go exactly as planned. Everything is pennywise and pound foolish.

The only country more screwed is Ireland which doesn't have storage, has some domestic production but also - thanks to lots of campaigning over the last 20 years - hasn't built any LNG facilities so relies entirely on the pipelines with the UK. On this and housing it's like a real race to the most fucked

[mongers]

Interesting BBC radio programme / catchup podcast called:

Could the PM Have a Brummie Accent?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b9v0tq

[mongers]

Not sure I can be arsed to go into another room and turn the tv on to find out how will be the next PM.