Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Obviously. I mean the Leave campaign included militant unions, centrist former Blairites, liberal Tory Leavers, and full-blown nativists. Some or most of them were always going to be disappointed by actual existing Brexit - the same goes for Remain which ran the gamut from Varoufakis' Another Europe is Possible to George Osborne.

None of those campaigns are internally coherent because they're not a general election but they agree on a single issue referendum - what happens afterwards is going to depend on the politics after that.

I think the liberal centre-right Leavers probably have more reason than any other group to be disappointed. But I've never really understood their reason for thinking that, as you say, a libertarian paradise was remotely politically plausible in this country. All polling of the British public shows they're basically pretty left wing and pretty authoritarian - not yearning for Singapore-on-Thames.

[Sheilbh]

The vote is now starting and will take a couple of hours.

By the time it started Johnson had about 140 public endorsements (who won't necessarily vote that way because it's a secret ballot). Theresa May in 2018 had 160 and the party had 40 fewer MPs. So that doesn't feel like a good sign for Johnson. I think May ended up with about 200 votes in the end.

Edit: Sam Freedman's guess sounds about right to me:
198 confidence
161 no confidence

But we'll see soon.

[Jacob]

So he'll survive, and the lack of any sense of shame will mean he'll continue as leader?

[Sheilbh]

So he'll survive, and the lack of any sense of shame will mean he'll continue as leader?

If that happened he'd survive - for a while. Technically the rules are there can't be another vote of confidence for a year. But he'd be pretty badly wounded and I suspect not last anywhere near that long. If the rebels have 160 votes - they'd, I imagine, be pretty implacable and keep pushing.

John Major lasted after his vote of no confidence (which he won more comfortably) until the voters kicked him out. Thatcher (different system and did a little better) resigned the day after - her initial response was "we fight on and we fight to win", but she was told by the cabinet that she needed to go. Theresa May (who also did better) lasted for six months - but it then became clear the rebels had enough votes to remove her, and to change the rules on when they could hold another vote.

Gavin Barwell, May's ex-chief of staff, notes that four Tory leaders in his political lifetime have had a vote of confidence. Three won them. Two were gone within a year and the third got hammered at the next election. Frankly I think once you get to the vote of confidence stage it's probably all over no matter how it goes.

Again on the one hand it is astonishing that this is only two and a half years from the best election result in 30 years - on the other, it's not. And they knew who they were choosing as leader.

Edit: Tory MP being nice and candid about their colleagues to a BBC reporter:

Nicholas Watt
@nicholaswatt
Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don't trust anything they say

He's likely to have won but the fact it's a secret ballot makes it a little more doubtful.

[alfred russel]

Again on the one hand it is astonishing that this is only two and a half years from the best election result in 30 years - on the other, it's not. And they knew who they were choosing as leader.

But no one should have been deluded that their success was more a function of Labour really sucking rather than voters thinking they were awesome.

[Sheilbh]

211 vote for Boris
148 against

Worse than Major, May or Thatcher.

[Sheilbh]

But no one should have been deluded that their success was more a function of Labour really sucking rather than voters thinking they were awesome.

Yeah. There'd always be scandals and it wouldn't be a well run government and he is the only PM in history to come into office having won an election but have a negative approval rating.

Johnson was an okay mayor - but that's his level.

[Sheilbh]

Also that feels like about the worst result for the Tories/best for Labour.

59%/41% is really not great for a parliamentary party - it's going to be even more divided now. While it's enough to survive, he's still hated by the public (and even 55% of Tory party members think he should go). All party discipline will collapse. Everyone with leadership ambitions will be running shadow campaigns. All of which will go on until he is forced out either by the party/cabinet or the voters.

[Tamas]

I predict Johnson wins with 52% to 48% and nothing is actually resolved. 

I know what was the joke here, but it turned out to be almost exactly on the mark. 

Great for Labour, sucks for the country.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Thatcher and May both resigned when they got similar results. But they did care for their party and country, unlike Johnson.

Or did May cling on?

[Richard Hakluyt]

She did, for 5 months.

[Sheilbh]

Thatcher and May both resigned when they got similar results. But they did care for their party and country, unlike Johnson.

May took six months and the 2019 European elections - plus the rebels grew until they had enough votes to change the rules and vote her out. There's no doubt she's a better and more conscientious person but it took until she was forced out.

Thatcher resigned though. But she called the cabinet in one by one to get their opinion and they all told her to leave. I have less confidence in the current cabinet - especially because a lot of them are non-entities who only have cabinet jobs to avoid Johnson being challenged. Doubt they'll do anything now either. It's a sign of the difference that even in 1990 in the full "mad Thatch" side she had enough a competent cabinet with ambitious ministers who could realistically expect to either succeed her or get a promotion; Johnson has Nadine Dorries

Edit: And worth noting that the payroll vote is about 170 MPs. Assuming most of them voted for Johnson this is pretty catastrophically bad among back benchers.

Edit: Someone's done the math - if you remove the payroll, over 80% of the backbenchers voted against Johnson. Obviously that falls for every minister, PPS etc who lied about the way they voted. And the rebels are confident there'll be resignations from government tomorrow.

[Josquius]

What do you mean by payroll here?
They've some form of official job title and area of responsibility no matter how minor and silly?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - cabinet ministers and junior ministers (who are paid more) and parliamentary private secretaries (who aren't - but are in a role for the government).

So assuming the entire government is loyal to him that should be about 170 votes. Although I imagine that they were not all loyal to him.

[Gups]

With a few exceptions amongst cabinet ministers who have literally no chance of getting any kind of job without Boris as PM (Dorris, Rees-Mogg, a few others) there's no reason at all to assume that the payroll voted differently to the backbenchers.