Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Who cares about starving children, a lack of ambulances, and minor politicians being murdered when the deficit is down.

[Syt]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/new-zealand-trade-deal-could-25266114

New Zealand trade deal could boost UK economy by between 0.01% and minus 0.01%

Boris Johnson's trade deal with New Zealand could either boost the economy by 0.01%... or cut it by 0.01%, analysis last year suggested.

The PM and Kiwi counterpart Jacinda Ardern sealed an agreement overnight after 16 months of talks in a major post-Brexit breakthrough.

The Department for International Trade (DIT) said the "groundbreaking" agreement will cut the price of New Zealand sauvignon blanc wine by 20p - which is its current tariff - and make Manuka honey and kiwi fruits cheaper.

It will also create more chances for Britons to live and work in New Zealand - and "deeper cooperation on digital trade and climate change", the ministry said.

However, critics have pointed out DIT's own 180-page analysis of its aims for a New Zealand free trade agreement produced in June 2020.

It said: "A trade agreement with New Zealand could have limited effects on UK GDP in the long run [15 years], with the estimated impact on GDP being close to zero under both scenarios compared to the UK not having a trade deal with New Zealand (between 0.00% and 0.01% in scenario 1 and -0.01% and 0.00% in scenario 2)."

It also suggested agriculture could see a reduction in output and employment, as "UK market access in these sectors increases and resources move towards the expanding sectors."

The analysis did add that the economy would grow overall on a different measure known as "Gross Value Added (GVA)", and "productivity gains are expected to drive increases in takehome pay for workers."

But Shadow Trade Secretary Emily Thornberry questioned the benefits of the deal today in the House of Commons.

She asked: "Is it correct, as her department says ... that New Zealand's exports to the UK will increase by five times as much as UK exports to New Zealand?

"And that New Zealand's GDP ... will grow by half a billion pounds while the UK's GDP will not increase by a single penny?"

Trade minister Penny Mordaunt replied: "Missing from the right honourable question was any timeframe.

"What the opposition need to appreciate is that we are building these markets. We are increasing these markets and over time those numbers will go up.

"They will go up because we have given our businesses and our farmers the opportunity to do that.

"But they will also go up because we have faith in those businesses and farmers that if we give them those opportunities they will seize them."

Asked if DIT was still forecasting a cut in "output and employment" for British farmers, International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan replied: "I am very confident that the deal we have struck will provide the opportunity for our wonderful food producers to continue to sell their goods across the world and, as we make more trade deals, creating new markets for them also."

But she refused to be drawn on whether the June 2020 forecast was still correct.

UK-New Zealand trade was worth £2.3billion last year and is expected to grow under the deal.

[The Brain]

Break out the best NZ bubbly!

[Sheilbh]

Joyful economic news this morning, as statistics clearly show, the UK isn't borrowing as much money as this time last year smack in the middle of the pandemic, and, gloriously, tax revenues are up compared to total lockdown times a year ago.

What a powerhouse!

I find it interesting - but mainly because on all types of figures like unemployment, borrowing, the rebound the impact from covid looks far less permanent than a lot of people expected. Which is incredibly positive given that last year we were still thinking there might be permanent scarring from covid.

I think the New Zealand deal sounds good - I think there's political as well as economic purposes to trade, especially given the particular history with New Zealand and the UK's entry into the EEC. And as I've said many times - I do not care about farmers moaning

Separately the Queen cancelled her trip to Northern Ireland for the ceremonies marking the centenary on doctor's advice - which sounded unusual. Now it's been announced she was in hospital last night, but is back at Windsor now. I've said it before but this country is going to lose its mind - it will go fully unhinged - when the Queen dies

[Tamas]

With everything else going on I do wonder if she turns out to be Britain's Franz Joseph II - the last piece of string still holding a multi-national country together. 

[Sheilbh]

With everything else going on I do wonder if she turns out to be Britain's Franz Joseph II - the last piece of string still holding a multi-national country together.

Maybe - though I think that wildly overestimates the importance of the monarchy/Queen I imagine it will be the end of the Queen/King of Canada/Australia/New Zealand/Jamaica/Antigua etc.

She is very popular, but so is William and the palace/media will conjure up warm feeling to Charles (it does help that the big thing he's been problematically political on is the environment and he was kind of right ). As a total aside my favourite unhinged conspiracy theory is that Charles is a secret Muslim

I think it's very unlikely there'll be another Scottish independence referendum in the next 5-10 years and since 2014 the only time "yes" has had a sustained lead across multiple polls was during the second wave.

[Richard Hakluyt]

With everything else going on I do wonder if she turns out to be Britain's Franz Joseph II - the last piece of string still holding a multi-national country together.

I'm thinking it is more likely that there will be a wave of sentiment that brings us closer together (for a little while).

AH in 1916 had things a little bit tougher than brexit Britain today too 

[Josquius]

That NZ headline is a laugh.
Alas there shall be excuses aplenty.

[Tamas]

Since we have had debates on whether the US was a failing state, is it time to raise this argument about the UK yet?

https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/10/23/the-british-state-is-becoming-worryingly-reliant-on-its-armed-forces

British soldiers have few battles to fight. But they have plenty else to do. On October 4th, after hurried training, nearly 200 hit the road, delivering petrol to the country's parched forecourts. The deployment came soon after others had been sent to Northern Ireland and Scotland—to drive ambulances, work in accident-and-emergency wards and run covid-19 testing facilities—and soon before some were sent to Wales. Within days, squaddies were off to help the struggling Home Office collect information about Afghan refugees.


When the state is in trouble, the armed forces step in—and they are being called upon increasingly often. According to the Ministry of Defence, there were 359 instances of civilian aid last year and there have been 237 in the year to date. That is up from 120 or so in the four previous years and fewer than 80 in 2015. Numbers are not available further back, but are expected to have been lower. As a former Tory cabinet minister notes, although governments have long got the armed forces to help out in a crisis, "calling in the troops seems to have become almost second nature now".

[Josquius]

Oh sure. It goes without saying to me that the UK is on the path to oblivion.
Not yet irreversible of course but failing for sure.

[Sheilbh]

I'm thinking it is more likely that there will be a wave of sentiment that brings us closer together (for a little while).

I think that's quite likely. It feels like there might be something more serious going on - I see BBC correspondent was dressed in dark clothes and said the palace has now said the stay in hospital was due to "prelminary investigations" and that they hadn't been entirely forthright. They never are especially about health issues.

Since we have had debates on whether the US was a failing state, is it time to raise this argument about the UK yet?

I'm not sure about that example - Alex Clarkson on Twitter often goes on about the UK's use of the military/lack of a gendarmerie/civil emergency force as a big indicator of lack of state capacity. I'm never entirely won over by that argument though maybe we should re-establish the Civil Defence Corps so it isn't just the military.

For me the bigger issue would be the hollowing out of core state functions like justice but also stuff done by local government. I think it is visible. Obviously this is mainly Cameron and Osborne's fault but I think a key issue is that this process hasn't actually led to smaller government necesssarily it's just become increasingly centralised and ineffective/inefficient. I think about this chart a lot:


I think this a lot with the justice system which is, everywhere in the world, a pretty core responsibility of the state. But in the UK is increasingly held together by hopes and prayers because apparently it's too difficult and too expensive. Especially as taxes rise I think people will, rightly, ask why their services are so poor.

Instead we have a central state pushing money around and hiring consultants on how to make the service work because they've gutted the local government that actually used to be the sort of middle point that delivered a lot of services.

[Tamas]

I'm not sure about that example - Alex Clarkson on Twitter often goes on about the UK's use of the military/lack of a gendarmerie/civil emergency force as a big indicator of lack of state capacity. I'm never entirely won over by that argument though maybe we should re-establish the Civil Defence Corps so it isn't just the military.

I think the main point is that if you need any kind of emergency force to step in and operate basic state and economic functions, things are bad.

[Grey Fox]

With everything else going on I do wonder if she turns out to be Britain's Franz Joseph II - the last piece of string still holding a multi-national country together.

Maybe - though I think that wildly overestimates the importance of the monarchy/Queen I imagine it will be the end of the Queen/King of Canada/Australia/New Zealand/Jamaica/Antigua etc.

She is very popular, but so is William and the palace/media will conjure up warm feeling to Charles (it does help that the big thing he's been problematically political on is the environment and he was kind of right ). As a total aside my favourite unhinged conspiracy theory is that Charles is a secret Muslim

I think it's very unlikely there'll be another Scottish independence referendum in the next 5-10 years and since 2014 the only time "yes" has had a sustained lead across multiple polls was during the second wave.

I assure you. Whoever is the next Monarch of the UK will be the Monarch of Canada. No one is willing to open that can of worms.

[Sheilbh]

I think the main point is that if you need any kind of emergency force to step in and operate basic state and economic functions, things are bad.

Sure - but I don't think 2020/21 are necessarily helpful baseline years. I'd be more interested in the 2010s v the 2000s (slight issue there is I think they only started documenting this in 2015). Obviously if there's still 360 or whatever uses in a couple of years there's a problem.

Separately looks like the contours of compromise on NIP are visible - apparently Johnson's willing to accept an arbitral board for disputes with references to the CJEU on matters of European law. Of course this practically changes nothing. Still not much response that I can see from the UUP.

But I did check Doug Beattie's Twitter and it is incredible to see him spending all day tweeting about Jeff Dudgeon who was the claimant in a ECtHR case that led to the decriminalisation of homosexuality in Northern Ireland 40 years ago today. It's still pretty astonishing to see a unionist party celebrating that - I was also stunned to discover that Dudgeon is actually a member of the UUP (for some reason I just assumed that anyone gay in Northern Ireland would also be nationalist and catholic ).

[Barrister]

With everything else going on I do wonder if she turns out to be Britain's Franz Joseph II - the last piece of string still holding a multi-national country together.

Maybe - though I think that wildly overestimates the importance of the monarchy/Queen I imagine it will be the end of the Queen/King of Canada/Australia/New Zealand/Jamaica/Antigua etc.

Maybe you haven't heard - we kind of have issues when it comes to constitutional amendments in this country.  And the Queen is entrenched in our constitution.

I imagine once Queen Liz 2 passes on  there will be a general sense we should get rid of the monarchy, but with absolutely no consensus on what to do instead, so we'll just keep muddling along with the status quo.