Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

....and it appears that the police do hold sex offenders' NI and passport numbers :

https://www.familiesoutside.org.uk/publications/information-sheets/information-sex-offender-register/

Maybe it is the employers who are being incompetent?

[The Brain]

The DBS issues certificates without checking against the numbers? There may be a simple way to, as the DBS puts it, "close this loophole"...

[Richard Hakluyt]

It appears that the certificates are not directly issued by the DBS but by "responsible organisations" :

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/responsible-organisations

These organisations will be wanting to make a profit and there is thus a motive for cutting corners 

[The Brain]

It appears that the certificates are not directly issued by the DBS but by "responsible organisations" :

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/responsible-organisations

These organisations will be wanting to make a profit and there is thus a motive for cutting corners 

Seems that they submit data to the DBS. If the DBS doesn't have the person's number as a required field...

[Richard Hakluyt]

I would prefer the checks to be done directly by career civil servants rather than employees of third party organisations. Civil servants have their faults, but they are invariably keen not to make mistakes. especially in potentially life-changing things like DBS checks.

Reducing the number of links in the chain is also good i think.

[The Brain]

It seems like it doesn't make a difference here though.

An RO will capture the details of a basic check application in their system, before transferring it to DBS via a web service. You can apply for DBS basic checks by visiting the website of a Responsible Organisation.

Individuals can also apply for a basic check directly to DBS using our new online application route if they live or work in England or wales, or to Disclosure Scotland if they live or work in Scotland.

My guess is that an RO is at least as reliable as a convicted sex offender trying to fool the system, and the latter is allowed to submit data to the DBS.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Inclusion and checking of the NI number at all steps is important I think. These can be fiddled too but that is a far more complicated business than simply using an alias.

If the basic check certificate does not include the NI number on it then it is essentially worthless..............surely they would not make such a basic error...........but wait......this is the Home Office 

[Richard Hakluyt]

No NI number required for a DBS check according to these guys https://crbdirect.org.uk/dbs-check-faq-videos/do-i-need-a-national-insurance-number-to-apply-for-a-dbs-check/

So I guess it is as easily circumvented as the Sunday Times article says 

[The Brain]

Home. Office.

[Tamas]

I would prefer the checks to be done directly by career civil servants rather than employees of third party organisations. Civil servants have their faults, but they are invariably keen not to make mistakes. especially in potentially life-changing things like DBS checks.

Reducing the number of links in the chain is also good i think.

I am afraid the easiest way to avoid making mistakes is to have somebody else do the work and take the responsibility.

[Sheilbh]

I am afraid the easiest way to avoid making mistakes is to have somebody else do the work and take the responsibility.

Maybe - I think the reason government loves outsourcers (and have for a few decades) is more that it is allegedly cheaper because, say, Serco call centre workers etc aren't on civil service contracts and don't join the civil service union and it lets them shift financial risk from their balance sheet to the contractor's, which the Treasury loves. I don't know about this example but I generally think we are outsourcing basic competencies of the state and it is having the impact you'd expect As an aside, I think Labour struggle to make much hay with this politically because the last Labour was very keen on outsourcing and PFI etc - but also I think they tend to focus on it as "x is being privatised" or "stop profiteering in our NHS" which I think as a message only really works with people who are already voting Labour. I'd focus far more on it not being value for money and delivering a bad service.

But I don't think it let's ministers avoid responsibility necessarily - especially when we're talking about sex offenders working with kids. I think the key will be how much the Times has on this. If they have enough to run several days worth of stories then I think this will get bigger, or if the tabloids pick it up (and I'd be amazed if they don't all have loads of reporters on this).

It reminds me of potentially the foreign prisoners scandal that ended Charles Clarke's stint as Home Secretary. I think there over 1,000 foreign prisoners were released into the UK at the end of their sentence instead of being deported (again including paedophiles but also drug importers, people who'd committed violent crimes). Once they were out they were lost by the probation service so they couldn't go back and fix it. But I think the technical issue then was that the prison service (no doubt outsourced to someone like Carillion or Serco) didn't talk to the immigration service (no doubt also outsourced to someone - maybe G4S). I just did a quick search and there are still 16 prisoners from that scandal who haven't been identified and deported as of 2019. But it was a known issue that was raised by regulators and just not fixed.

But in the context of Brexit it just shows the utter hypocrisy of Johnson/Frost. Dictating something as controversial as abortion rights against the consensus in Stormont is acceptable, but sausage product regulation checks isn't apparently. Not a serious government really. It's right for the EU to mostly ignore Frost's antics.

The government opposed both the abortion and the gay marriage amendments - they were passed before the 2019 election when there wasn't a majority largely because of a backbench revolt and, as I say, the very good work of Labour backbenchers on both issues. And it has taken a long time so the amendment was passed in 2019, the deadline for implementation by Stormont will be 2022 (though there has already been a partial decriminalisation based on Creasy's amendment) so that's two and a half to three years. There's been thousands of women from Ireland (North and South) who've had to make the journey to GB for abortion - that's no longer the case in the South but I wonder how much of an impact the pandemic had and actually women weren't able to access the services they wanted/needed for the last 18 months. I wonder if it maybe should have been implemented sooner given that emergency context?

But I get your point. I suppose the counter argument is that I think I would see abortion and gay marriage as human rights issues - though that's not how they're normally framed in the UK. The sad truth is that almost all gay rights legislation in Northern Ireland have been passed by Westminster, I'm not so sure about abortion - so it was decriminalised in the 80s when there was no Northern Irish government, the age of consent was equalised and offences like "buggery" abolished in the 2000s when Stormont wasn't functioning and now gay marriage. There's always been incredible work by womens groups and LGBT groups in Northern Ireland and repeated attempts to change the law - but it's always had to happen against the principle of democratic self-government.

I know with abortion womens rights groups across these isles work closely together so GB groups were very supportive of the Irish campaign to repeal the 8th amendment and also always emphasised that there is a bit of this country where abortion is illegal. After the repeal the 8th campaign both in Ireland and GB the focus turned to Northern Ireland and supporting the campaign for legalisation there.

Separately I did see a story in the Times today that the DUP position is now that even if Westminster tries to force them to run checks they will unilaterally refuse to implement - I don't know what happens then legally. I think in that position the civil service then implement them as legal duties, even if opposed by their minister/political boss but I have no idea. I don't think it's something that's really come up before.

[Sheilbh]

One for Tamas to noodle about with:
https://cronyconnect.com/

It's a nice little dashboard that let's you cross reference Companies House records, MP's Register of Interests and Electoral Commission reporting on donations.

Edit: Incidentally on covid - there is now a definite UK wide flattening/fall in case numbers:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Need at least another week to confirm the impact of Monday but the ONS prevalence survey is also flattening and falling in a few regions. In the same way as we probably need a couple of weeks to see the impact full re-opening, it is striking that this appears to be happening basically 2 weeks after the Euros final. Though there's many other factors it could be - nice weather, behaviour change as cases rise etc. But again if this persists (and as in Scotland) I think this'll be the first time we've seen cases fall without new restrictions being imposed first

Edit: These charts are helpful for England (wonder about the acceleration around the Euros final on 11 July):


And Scotland (acceleration five days after Scotland's first group game on 14 June):

[Richard Hakluyt]

Carry on jabbing 

[Sheilbh]

Latest interesting shift on worker v employer power - still too soon to tell if this is a trend or just a few examples. From the Mirror. And, of course, there is power in a union

Beer shortage fears if workers behind 40% of Britain's booze deliveries go on strike
Drivers and warehouse staff at XPO Logistics Drinks are considering taking action over pay and Covid measures as Unite union brand a wage rise offer as 'paltry'
ByMark Solomons
    19:08, 23 JUL 2021

Drinkers could face a beer shortage if employees behind 40% of Britain's booze deliveries go on strike.

Drivers and warehouse staff at XPO Logistics Drinks are considering taking action over pay and Covid measures.

Around 1,000 workers at 26 sites received a 1.4% wage rise offer, which the Unite union branded as "paltry".

It is now balloting for strike action.

In the last year, staff have missed out on £10,000 in pay due to furlough and a lack of overtime.

Trade journal the Morning Advertiser reported the union is asking for a 3.9% increase in line with inflation.

Unite's Joe Clarke said staff had faced "great financial hardship".

He added: "We call upon the company to engage in meaningful negotiations."

Unite also accused the firm of putting staff at risk after halting "Covid-secure cleaning processes".

A spokesman for XPO said: "We remain open for further conversations to seek agreement in a sector that is starting to come out of lockdown's impact."

[Tamas]

A scientist advising the government has accused ministers of allowing infections to rip through the younger population in an effort to bolster levels of immunity before the NHS faces winter pressures.

The allegation comes after England's remaining Covid restrictions were eased on Monday, with nightclubs throwing open their doors for the first time in the pandemic and all rules on social distancing and mask wearing dropped even as infections run high.

Ministers were made aware of scientists' concerns about reopening nightclubs and other crowded, close-contact and poorly ventilated venues without testing or other checks in place. On Monday Boris Johnson made the surprise announcement that Covid passports will be required for such settings – but not until the end of September, in two months' time.

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"What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible, while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences," said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage's behavioural science subgroup.

"It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach," West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

A large wave of infections, coupled with mass vaccination, would push the UK closer to "herd immunity", where enough people in the population are resistant to the virus that it no longer spreads. The threshold for herd immunity with the Delta variant is unclear, but scientists estimate that transmission would need to be blocked in about 85% of the population. Ministers have repeatedly denied that achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is the government's goal.

Monday's easing of restrictions removed social distancing, the work-from-home order and legal requirements around mask wearing, though ministers called on the public to remain cautious. The move prompted a flurry of regional mandates to maintain masks on public transport, including the London tube, buses and trains, and Manchester Metrolink trams. Legal limits on mixing indoors lifted at the same time, allowing all businesses to reopen.

The change in rules led some clubs to open at midnight on Sunday, leading to packed bars and dancefloors across England. Similar scenes in the Netherlands in recent weeks led the Dutch premier, Mark Rutte, to reimpose curbs on bars, restaurants and nightclubs as new cases rose sevenfold.

The shadow health secretary, Jon Ashworth, said: "Abandoning all precautions and allowing infections to climb not only risks further restrictions in the future, it condemns thousands to long-term illness and places huge pressure on the NHS. Rising Covid admissions are helping exacerbate a summer NHS crisis, with operations cancelled and increasing waiting times. It means we are heading into another difficult winter and high levels of virus circulating could see a vaccine-evading variant emerge. This is an utterly reckless strategy from Boris Johnson."

Data from the Office for National Statistics show that coronavirus in England is now largely an infection among young adults. Cases in 11-to-16-year-olds are nearly four times more common, and in 16-to-24-year-olds nearly six times more common, than in 50-to-69-year-olds. While generally at low risk from the disease, young people can still develop long Covid and help fuel the epidemic, which drives up cases in those who are more vulnerable.

Prof John Drury, a social psychologist at the University of Sussex, is concerned about the changes that came into force on Monday, such as dropping the mandate on mask-wearing, which "sent a very strong signal" that the Covid crisis is now less serious.

Speaking in a personal capacity, Drury, who participates in meetings of the Sage behavioural science subgroup, said recent research showed that people use government policy to make judgments on risk and how to behave. "The overall message is that the actions by the public – not only mask-wearing, but also distancing and avoiding crowded places – are no longer required."

This has already affected public behaviour, he said, though those ditching Covid precautions appear to be a large minority rather than the majority. "Fortunately, many people are aware of the rocketing infection rates and the risk posed to many people in society including the most vulnerable and are continuing to wear masks and keep their distance out of solidarity as much as self-protection," Drury said.

A government spokesperson said: "Herd immunity has never been part of our pandemic strategy. Our approach has always been to protect the NHS and social care, save lives, and ensure as many people as possible are vaccinated as we learn to live with Covid-19.

"While the vaccination programme has substantially weakened the link between infection and serious illness or death, we have been clear about the need to exercise personal caution as we ease restrictions.

"We are encouraging settings to make use of the NHS Covid pass by requiring either proof of full vaccination or a negative test and we reserve the right to mandate certification if necessary to reduce transmission."