Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Admiral Yi]

Ok so what am I missing then?

Go back to the post that started this line of discussion.  "How has this been a debacle?" 

Economically it has not been a debacle. 

You and others are making the argument that the shit doesn't hit the fan until Brexit is voted in, which I disagree with on two counts.  Economies are affected constantly by future expectations and uncertainty.  Secondly, the prediction that Britain will experience a debacle post-Brexit doesn't refute Fredo's point, which is that up to now it has not been a debacle (economically).

[Zanza]

In actual news, the Conservative party is now preparing for the EU parliamentary elections in May.

[The Minsky Moment]

In June and July of 1914, financial markets were extremely solid and calm.  Even in the last week before the war, the deterioration in key financial market indicators like government bond yields was very mild.  The markets simply wildly underestimated the real level of risk.

Another interesting fact is that the French stock market was considerably higher in both real in nominal terms in January 1944 than it was before WW2 started. 

Markets are powerful things but they don't always flawlessly anticipate the effect of unusual political events or conditions.

[Razgovory]

Another interesting fact is that the French stock market was considerably higher in both real in nominal terms in January 1944 than it was before WW2 started. 

They were expecting a major influx of tourists that summer.

[Zoupa]

 

[The Minsky Moment]

They were expecting a major influx of tourists that summer.

They sure got em.
Unfortunately for every tourist with GI rations they got a bunch more with proximity fuses.

[alfred russel]

I don't think that the 9000 posts were principally motivated by the economic impact.  In fact, the focus on economics was a key failing of the Remain campaign.
Brexit is first and foremost a political project.  And as a political project, the early returns are extremely bad. 

Agree that it is first and foremost a political project, but I disagree that the early returns are extremely bad - at least by objective standards that don't presuppose that Brexit itself is bad.

It is clear there is no consensus on what it is supposed to mean, exactly what is supposed to be achieved besides some theoretical end state where the UK is not a formal member of the EU ("Brexit means Brexit"), and no clue whatsoever how to get to the non-existent objective point.

This is true but I'm not sure how that qualifies brexit as extremely bad. The EU itself is a billed as a project whose end objective is still extremely contentious and disputed. Does that mean the EU is extremely bad?

It has exposed grotesque incompetency in both major parties.

Seems like that should be a vote in Brexit's favor rather than evidence it is extremely bad...not sure your logic here.

It has raised some doubt about the future of the UK government's greatest achievement in the last 25 years - helping bring peace to Ireland.

I seriously doubt that a state of war is going to re-emerge in Ireland. The Irish have become as fat and lazy as the rest of the west the past few decades--maybe even a bit more than average--I don't see them going back to war.

It has re-irritated the Scottish question.

Is it even extremely bad if the Scottish actually bolt, rather than what they are doing now--debating bolting?

It obviously has done little benefit to the UK's most significant diplomatic relationship - the EU.

This presupposes that Brexit is bad. It is circular logic. Whatever Brexit means, it involves the UK to some extent leaving the EU, and you are evaluating it as extremely bad because it doesn't benefit the relationship with the EU. But the entire point is to withdraw!

It has sucked up political oxygen and taken all focus away from other priorities.

No comment.

To the extent Brexit means anything it all, it appears to mean making it harder for other Euro residents to enter the UK.  That is both ugly politics and lousy economics. A shame to see a great nation tie itself into knots for 3 years just to pander to furriner bashing.

This comes back to both the circular logic point above and the economics point I was making earlier. To address economics first, to date the economic impact does not appear "extremely bad". It appears negative but not dire.

To address the "ugly politics": that opinion presupposes that the immigration controls are bad. Every country has immigration controls - presumably a country can tighten them with the result being "extremely bad"?

[Zanza]

I don't want to participate in Alfred's straw man exercise, but I would like to point out that ending freedom of movement is not just limiting immigration. It is also reciprocated and takes the right away from British citizens. A modern democracy deliberately limiting such a fundamental right enjoyed by its constituents is pretty remarkable. 

[Zanza]

Since when are there "objective standards" by which to measure policy decisions? If there are objective standards, why do we have a democracy instead of a technocracy?

[Monoriu]

Well, I am one of those who will be stripped of having the ability to enter other EU countries via the fast lane.  I won't call it a right though.  I consider that to be a privilege.  If I lose that, too bad, but I really don't have any grounds to complain.  I am not German, so if I can't get into Germany without a thorough passport check, I can only call it tough luck. 

[Josquius]

I don't want to participate in Alfred's straw man exercise, but I would like to point out that ending freedom of movement is not just limiting immigration. It is also reciprocated and takes the right away from British citizens. A modern democracy deliberately limiting such a fundamental right enjoyed by its constituents is pretty remarkable. 

Yep.
That's a key part of what makes brexit so utterly wrong, logically, ethically, and legally.

If the government wanted tighter immigration controls there's a lot they can do within EU law that they haven't bothered to do so far.
Stripping fundamental rights from their population in this way though. Ifs verging on Stalinist- controlling the movement of your population and where they may and may not live.

[Tamas]

What's interesting for me this week is the apparent lack of worry in the British press and media over the officially still looming deadline of this Friday. Everyone seems to have concluded that either May will get her outrageous demand of June 30, or we will get a one year extension.

[Tamas]

Oh and the motion to make May seek an extension rather than go for no-deal without asking for one has seen royal ascent or however you say that, and has been made into law.

1. It is of course already moot since May has asked for an extension. Just one she knows the EU will reject, but the law doesn't require her to ask for an acceptable extension

2. I guess it should be little surprise that the only Brexit-related motion that has seen enough support to take effect is not only the most badly worded and inconsequential, but also the one that helps MPs postpone having to make any decisions

[mongers]

What's interesting for me this week is the apparent lack of worry in the British press and media over the officially still looming deadline of this Friday. Everyone seems to have concluded that either May will get her outrageous demand of June 30, or we will get a one year extension.

Yes, somewhat odd and certainly not a done deal; only takes one of Farage's far-right friends, like say Orban to pull the plug on the remainers.

[alfred russel]

I don't want to participate in Alfred's straw man exercise,

My premise was that Brexit is not a debacle....

Since you are considering that a straw man, does that mean you don't think it is a debacle?