Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

Started by Josquius, February 20, 2016, 07:46:34 AM

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How would you vote on Britain remaining in the EU?

British- Remain
12 (12%)
British - Leave
7 (7%)
Other European - Remain
21 (21%)
Other European - Leave
6 (6%)
ROTW - Remain
34 (34%)
ROTW - Leave
20 (20%)

Total Members Voted: 98

Zanza

At least those new free trade agreements are on track.

QuoteBrexit: Australia eyes relaxed UK immigration under trade deal

The UK has been told it will have to relax its immigration rules for Australians if it wants a free trade deal with Canberra.

India had already said something similar.

A recent book on globalization also stated that the current impediment for further globalization is not so much trade itself as that's already very efficient with few tariffs remaining. It's moving people. So if Theresa May is true about Global Britain, she'll have to accept further, simplified immigration.

celedhring

Quote from: Zanza on January 22, 2017, 06:04:27 AM
At least those new free trade agreements are on track.

QuoteBrexit: Australia eyes relaxed UK immigration under trade deal

The UK has been told it will have to relax its immigration rules for Australians if it wants a free trade deal with Canberra.

India had already said something similar.

A recent book on globalization also stated that the current impediment for further globalization is not so much trade itself as that's already very efficient with few tariffs remaining. It's moving people. So if Theresa May is true about Global Britain, she'll have to accept further, simplified immigration.

Also regulations, which is what the TTIP tried to address and what made it so contentious. But the UK wants to be able to enact its own regulations instead of harmonizing them with other countries.

The Larch

Quote from: Zanza on January 22, 2017, 06:04:27 AM
At least those new free trade agreements are on track.

QuoteBrexit: Australia eyes relaxed UK immigration under trade deal

The UK has been told it will have to relax its immigration rules for Australians if it wants a free trade deal with Canberra.

India had already said something similar.

A recent book on globalization also stated that the current impediment for further globalization is not so much trade itself as that's already very efficient with few tariffs remaining. It's moving people. So if Theresa May is true about Global Britain, she'll have to accept further, simplified immigration.

I have the lingering feeling that they'll be more than ok about relaxed inmigration rules for Australians.

garbon

Quote from: The Larch on January 22, 2017, 07:59:12 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 22, 2017, 06:04:27 AM
At least those new free trade agreements are on track.

QuoteBrexit: Australia eyes relaxed UK immigration under trade deal

The UK has been told it will have to relax its immigration rules for Australians if it wants a free trade deal with Canberra.

India had already said something similar.

A recent book on globalization also stated that the current impediment for further globalization is not so much trade itself as that's already very efficient with few tariffs remaining. It's moving people. So if Theresa May is true about Global Britain, she'll have to accept further, simplified immigration.

I have the lingering feeling that they'll be more than ok about relaxed inmigration rules for Australians.

Indeed.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Zanza

Could be. The last few decades have seen a constant tightening of immigration rules for Commonwealth citizens. But it's possible that they'll change direction as part of "Global Britain".

Josquius

Quote from: Zanza on January 22, 2017, 10:18:10 AM
Could be. The last few decades have seen a constant tightening of immigration rules for Commonwealth citizens. But it's possible that they'll change direction as part of "Global Britain".

It was certainly one of the fake promises of the leave campaign:,We aren't anti immigration,  it's remain who are racist,  we want the same rules for everyone,  vote leave and things will be easier for Indians!

Which was all of course bollocks they were spewing out to try and win the ethnic vote.
India has already said relaxed visa rules are its major demand for trade talks which was not greeted well.
Just listen to your typical knuckle dragging leave voter and it's all about the muslims and the other brown people.

That being said though I could see a deal with Australia working.  At the least it provides a mask that they are being open to the world.

My big worry is the way things are heading with the US.
The UK becoming the 51st state has upgraded from being an utter joke to merely being super unlikely...
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garbon

Quote from: Tyr on January 23, 2017, 06:09:15 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 22, 2017, 10:18:10 AM
Could be. The last few decades have seen a constant tightening of immigration rules for Commonwealth citizens. But it's possible that they'll change direction as part of "Global Britain".

It was certainly one of the fake promises of the leave campaign:,We aren't anti immigration,  it's remain who are racist,  we want the same rules for everyone,  vote leave and things will be easier for Indians!

Which was all of course bollocks they were spewing out to try and win the ethnic vote.
India has already said relaxed visa rules are its major demand for trade talks which was not greeted well.
Just listen to your typical knuckle dragging leave voter and it's all about the muslims and the other brown people.

That being said though I could see a deal with Australia working.  At the least it provides a mask that they are being open to the world.

My big worry is the way things are heading with the US.
The UK becoming the 51st state has upgraded from being an utter joke to merely being super unlikely...


Agreed on India and yeah, I could see Australia being the one with some leeway though.

Oh and still very unlikely with the US. Trump doesn't want to annex the UK, just bleed it dry. :D :) :weep:
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

PJL

Perhaps the US will join the Commonwealth. I certainly wouldn't rule it out these days.

Tamas

I think May will take whatever Trump is willing to offer and will try to sell it as a huge success.
And at this stage, being a tax heaven colony of the US seems a better option than slowly sinking to irrelevance, anyways.

I mean, free trade agreement with India will be nice for me but I don't think it will quickly solve the problems of the people wanting low skill production jobs to re-appear in the UK...

Oh, and this new leader of UKIP was on the telly this morning. I liked his line of "getting out to the world again" (as in the, UK). FFS the last time the UK ruled world trade, they achieved that largely by pointing a gun (or rather, a broadside of cannons) at the head of their negotiating partners, hardly an option today.

Josquius

It's one of the areas where the pro eu side have shown themselves utterly incompetent.  This idea that it is a choice of the EU or the world and the EU doesn't have/is actively pursuing trade deals with much of the world... It's a lie the Kippers are just getting away with.
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mongers

Quote from: PJL on January 23, 2017, 07:19:12 AM
Perhaps the US will join the Commonwealth. I certainly wouldn't rule it out these days.

Trump is conflicted, he likes one half of the word a lot more than the other part.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

The Minsky Moment

Trump may very well do a fair deal with Britain.  His focus is on manufacturing and the UK does not have a lot of competitive manufacturing that is threatening to US interests.  There is more competition in financial and related services, but the US players in that area tend to be free traders so there won't be lots of pressure to take a hard line - more likely the opposite.

Also he may view a quick UK trade deal as a way of dividing Europe and accomodating the free traders in his own party - i.e. see I can do trade deals when it works for us etc.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Tamas

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 23, 2017, 09:41:35 AM
Trump may very well do a fair deal with Britain.  His focus is on manufacturing and the UK does not have a lot of competitive manufacturing that is threatening to US interests.  There is more competition in financial and related services, but the US players in that area tend to be free traders so there won't be lots of pressure to take a hard line - more likely the opposite.

Also he may view a quick UK trade deal as a way of dividing Europe and accomodating the free traders in his own party - i.e. see I can do trade deals when it works for us etc.

This is all assuming May manages to avoid triggering him with something.

Admiral Yi

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 23, 2017, 09:41:35 AM
Trump may very well do a fair deal with Britain.  His focus is on manufacturing and the UK does not have a lot of competitive manufacturing that is threatening to US interests.  There is more competition in financial and related services, but the US players in that area tend to be free traders so there won't be lots of pressure to take a hard line - more likely the opposite.

Also he may view a quick UK trade deal as a way of dividing Europe and accomodating the free traders in his own party - i.e. see I can do trade deals when it works for us etc.

I don't imagine there are many barriers to the US operation of British service companies that can be negotiated away.

celedhring

Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2017, 10:02:15 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 23, 2017, 09:41:35 AM
Trump may very well do a fair deal with Britain.  His focus is on manufacturing and the UK does not have a lot of competitive manufacturing that is threatening to US interests.  There is more competition in financial and related services, but the US players in that area tend to be free traders so there won't be lots of pressure to take a hard line - more likely the opposite.

Also he may view a quick UK trade deal as a way of dividing Europe and accomodating the free traders in his own party - i.e. see I can do trade deals when it works for us etc.

I don't imagine there are many barriers to the US operation of British service companies that can be negotiated away.

There will be if the UK leaves the EU without a replacement agreement in place. All existing agreements are between the US and the EU.