And we're back!
Started by Josquius, February 20, 2016, 07:46:34 AM
Total Members Voted: 98
Quote from: HVC on February 08, 2024, 10:08:51 PMGreen Alliance blames Mr Bean for low uptake of EVs in the UKhttps://fortune.com/europe/2024/02/07/rowan-atkinson-column-blamed-for-slow-ev-adoption-uk-green-alliance/
QuoteJohn Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdochNEW: we often talk about an age divide in politics, with young people much less conservative than the old.But this is much more a British phenomenon than a global one.40% of young Americans voted Trump in 2020. But only 10% of UK under-30s support the Conservatives. Why?One factor is that another narrative often framed as universal turns out to be much worse in the UK: the sense that young generations are getting screwed.Young people are struggling to get onto the housing ladder in many countries, but the crisis is especially deep in Britain:It's a similar story for incomes, where Millennials in the UK have not made any progress on Gen X, while young Americans are soaring to record highs.Young Brits have had a much more visceral experience of failing to make economic progress.These experiences shape mindsets.@benwansell has shown that young Britons have lost faith in the idea that effort is rewarded with success, and you can see why.They have strived for years only to find themselves lacking the rewards they were promised https://benansell.substack.com/p/generation-gamesI've extended Ben's analysis internationally, and the results are striking.Young people in the UK have less faith in upward mobility than young people *anywhere else in the developed world*, and far less than their elders.The dream has been shattered.This is hugely important.Belief in the ability to get ahead is an absolutely central pillar of conservative politics. The expectation that they will one day be among the haves, rather than have-nots, has long propelled many young people to vote Conservative.As @robfordmancs put it to me, in the old world, it was perfectly rational for young people to vote Conservative. They were on the road to homeownership and strong incomes. Voting for the party of homeowners and low taxes was an obvious choice.Here's the same data on beliefs in upward mobility, but plotted vs age like the chart on voting patterns.Notice the similarities. The dream of economic progress totally shattered for young Brits, and with it go their Conservative votes.But this isn't just about economics and upward mobility.After all, the housing affordability crisis has been unfolding for years, yet young Britons' desertion of the Tories is a recent phenomenon. Values matter too.So I worked with @focaldataHQ to see if we can better what else is keeping young Britons from voting Conservative.We asked questions about people's material circumstances as well as their views on Brexit, social values and economic preferences.We combined these into a scale that runs from natural progressives (non-homeowners, anti-Brexit, socially progressive, economically leftwing) to natural conservatives (opposite ends of those scales).And sure enough it predicts support for the Tories.But...Here's the issue: young people are clustered at the opposite end. Indeed there are zero (0) young Britons on the right-hand side.Restoring social mobility is key but young people and the conservative party are poles apart, completely misaligned on multiple axes.And it's crucial to note that this has not always been the case. As recently as 2015, there was a much more normal age gradient in British politics.Why have things shifted so suddenly?The answer almost certainly lies in Brexit.Up until the EU referendum, the share of young Britons who said they "strongly dislike" the Conservative party was steady at 20%.Since the vote to leave the EU it has climbed steadily and is now double that level.The EU referendum caused a realignment of British politics, with partisan support breaking more along social values lines than it had previously done.The Conservatives used this to great success in 2019, but they're now seeing the cost of turning culture into a key divide.And here's where it gets interesting:Since our scale runs from natural progressives to natural conservatives, people at each point on the scale should be equally likely to vote Conservative regardless of their demographics. If you're conservative you're conservative.But...What we actually see is that young people who look like they *should be Tories* are not Tories.Here's the US for comparison.Young or old, conservative Americans vote Republican. But many young Brits with Conservative-aligned views and circumstances don't vote Tory.This speaks to to another issue:Young Britons are tightly clustered, both geographically and online.With young people's entire social community leaning away from the Tories, that exerts a pressure not to vote Conservative even if one's values are aligned.As @JamesKanag put it to me, when it comes to young Brits the Tories are facing into a strong headwind.Young people's economic position, social beliefs, economic beliefs, geography, online spaces, and Brexit — everything points away from the Conservative party.And this explains why the Tories' scant offering of young-adult-friendly policies has fallen flat. Remember free childcare? Did that generate a bump in the polls among young Brits? Nope.When the misalignment is so strong on so many axes, it takes much much more to shift things.For decades, the Tories' alliance has been with older voters. This worked well in the past. It faithfully delivered eight electoral victories!But the continued focus on that generation at the cost of the next is now precisely what is set to deliver a defeat.Thinking beyond 2024/25, the Conservatives' return to power will only be possible if built on a new younger coalition.How to get there? The changes will need to be wholesale. But there are some playbooks to follow from elsewhere.One is Canada, where Pierre Poilievre's party has rapidly rejuvenated, boosting its share of the young vote to 40% off the back of ambitious house-building proposals.And this has not come at any cost with older voters. The Canadian Conservatives now lead Trudeau's liberals and by 15 points in the polls, and the NDP by 20.A broad coalition across the age gradient is not only possible, it is powerful.The renovation job will be harder for the British Conservatives, who start from a much lower base, but the broad approach is there to be emulated.A focus on housing, on broader economic dynamism, on restoring a sense of progress, but also broader and more modern values.Here's my column in fullhttps://www.ft.com/content/165f9aee-1180-4be8-903b-b166dc4e4fa1And my piece from a few months back about how Canada offers a lessonhttps://www.ft.com/content/1cfe0682-be4c-4f4d-b389-e1df1187271dOther contributing factors that didn't make the article:• Education. It's often under-appreciated how much faster and bigger the expansion of university education has been in the UK vs elsewhere. Today considerably more young brits are graduates than young Americans.So to the extent that higher education engenders more progressive views (beyond just selecting for more liberal people), this will be exerting downward pressure on the conservative vote among one of the most highly-educated cohorts anywhere in the developed world.• Incumbency. The Tories have been in power for 14 years. That means the association between one party and economic malaise is stronger in the UK than practically anywhere else. A whole generation has come of age (and felt short-changed) during a period of unbroken Tory rule.And even beyond the direct association between the Tories and 14 years of stagnation, people simply want a change.This also helps explain the Canadian Cons' success. Poilievre's policies are good, and are playing a key role, but he has the advantage of attacking the incumbents.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."
Quote from: Valmy on February 09, 2024, 11:22:01 AMI like how in almost every other country the young people are cynical and pessimistic about their futures being secured by hard work but their elders think this is the case...except in the Netherlands there the young people are little innocent flowers and the elders bitter cynics.
QuoteGalloway is particularly saying he'll only be MP until the next election - so 200 days max - so "lend me your vote once", however you normally vote, "for Palestine, for Gaza". Also pointing out he doesn't need the money or to be better known, he doesn't need the job - he is running "for one reason only and that is for Gaza" and to show that
Quote"what Starmer has done will never be forgiven".
Quote from: Josquius on February 11, 2024, 10:44:38 AMHadnt heard about the local issues stuff. That makes it a bit less exciting. Read some guardian bits the other day about tory anger they weren't even going to try, admitted things were in terminal decline etc.. QuoteGalloway is particularly saying he'll only be MP until the next election - so 200 days max - so "lend me your vote once", however you normally vote, "for Palestine, for Gaza". Also pointing out he doesn't need the money or to be better known, he doesn't need the job - he is running "for one reason only and that is for Gaza" and to show that OK I'm with him so far. Sounds fairly reasonable really... If you ignore the whole wipping up hate and being a horrid person thing of course. I cam really see how someone less controversial running on the same basis could be worth a crack.
Quote from: garbon on February 11, 2024, 10:47:29 AMQuote from: Josquius on February 11, 2024, 10:44:38 AMHadnt heard about the local issues stuff. That makes it a bit less exciting. Read some guardian bits the other day about tory anger they weren't even going to try, admitted things were in terminal decline etc.. QuoteGalloway is particularly saying he'll only be MP until the next election - so 200 days max - so "lend me your vote once", however you normally vote, "for Palestine, for Gaza". Also pointing out he doesn't need the money or to be better known, he doesn't need the job - he is running "for one reason only and that is for Gaza" and to show that OK I'm with him so far. Sounds fairly reasonable really... If you ignore the whole wipping up hate and being a horrid person thing of course. I cam really see how someone less controversial running on the same basis could be worth a crack.Reasonable? Why should one pick one's MP based on foreign policy concerns that they will have no ability to impact?
Quote from: Zanza on February 06, 2024, 02:26:58 PM That sounds even worse than here. Also 8.3 billion for 14 miles of road is eye watering.
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 11, 2024, 01:38:21 PMQuote from: Zanza on February 06, 2024, 02:26:58 PM That sounds even worse than here. Also 8.3 billion for 14 miles of road is eye watering. Just a little more than a third of the Channel Tunnel (in adjusted pounds). (and disappointed the article didn't use that apt comparison)
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