Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

Also I just think it's something where our political class and ideas haven't caught up with reality.

I had no idea and I think the huge (in the 90s) issue of pensioner poverty still dominates how we think about older people.

To be fair, pensioner poverty will be again a massive issue in just 20-30 years.

Problem solved, so no need to worry 

[Sheilbh]

How much of old people dole is self contributed vs government bribe/top up?

Average retirement income is roughly two thirds private/occupational pension and one third state pension. Lots of variation but generally the private/occupational bit is increasing due to auto enrolment.

Plus most pensioners (about 75-80%) own their home. As I say the two big asset classes that are very tax advantageous in the UK are contributing to your pension and buying a property (though there have been a lot of changes to the tax rules so but to let is a lot less attractive than it was ten years ago).

[Richard Hakluyt]

I would just add that the ISA allowance is now £20k per annum. I would imagine that most well-off people would have substantial amounts invested in shares/bonds/whatever behind the ISA wall and thus free from tax.

[The Larch]

Sheilbh, on the topic you mentioned already of Australian politics being much more aggressive and savage than the British and how this is influencing British politics, I recently saw that an Australian group that did political awareness raising YouTube videos on global and Australian topics recently started doing videos also on British issues, with their usual Australian style. So, enjoy. 

[Legbiter]

It is going to have catastrophic effects on the hospitality sector. Their costs are rising so they will have to increase prices, meanwhile the ability of a broad swathe of people to get a family takeaway, have a meal out or a few pints is being lost. Unless the government does something we could lose thousands of pubs 

Yeah any small or medium sized business really.

[Josquius]

Sheilbh, on the topic you mentioned already of Australian politics being much more aggressive and savage than the British and how this is influencing British politics, I recently saw that an Australian group that did political awareness raising YouTube videos on global and Australian topics recently started doing videos also on British issues, with their usual Australian style. So, enjoy. 

That is pretty good. The bit with truss and the cheese...

[Sheilbh]

Sheilbh, on the topic you mentioned already of Australian politics being much more aggressive and savage than the British and how this is influencing British politics, I recently saw that an Australian group that did political awareness raising YouTube videos on global and Australian topics recently started doing videos also on British issues, with their usual Australian style. So, enjoy. 

When I think of how aggressive Aussie politics can get I always think of Paul Keating (at PMQs) being asked why he won't just call an early election and reply - "because, mate, I wanna do you slowly"

It's definitely been a thing with John Howard's election strategists basically being behind every Tory campaign (with some help from Obama alums) since 2005 - starting with Johnson's mayoral run. But also just the run of leadership spills since Howard. On the Labor side Rudd deposed by Gillard after two years, before deposing her after three. On the Liberal side - Abbot lasts about 18 months, then Turnbull's around for three years before Morrison replaces him. And from what I understand not normally driven by huge ideological divides (a little bit, maybe with Turnbull) but who is best placed to win an election. I think Albanese has record high popularity - but let's see how long it lasts

Also Australian politics has weird echoes in the UK (or maybe vice versa?) - like a modernising, neo-liberal Labor leader running for about a decade but constantly fighting with his Treasurer who eventually plots to replace him. And, perhaps, now the Teal independents - some of the most prosperous, safe Liberal seats going to the Teals (I think in the UK Lib Dems or Greens) because they're unhappy with how much the Liberals leaned into culture issues and pitched themselves as more of a "working class conservatism" party.

Plus a similar pretty aggressive, undecorous political culture where both sides fling insults to each other but also from the general public to politicians if they don't like them - there's very little of that "sir"/respect the office culture.

Australia's also a regular model for politics "Australian style points-based immigration system" - people are a little bit familiar with Australia (in a way they're not with most of Europe) because I'd guess most people either know Australians or have emigrant family/friends who've moved to Australia. But we even have Australian soaps on daytime TV - and apparently they have ours too - plus various daytime TV show formats where we'll end up with both versions (often about buying property). Plus sporting rivalry in basically everything but football

The only country that I think occupies a similar space as a country we feel we should be like/measure ourselves against is maybe Germany. It's got less popular culture side to it, but Germany comes up a lot as a model for policy - from public health or industrial policy to a "German-style education system" (which is normally a thing on the right) or a "German style approach to history" (more on the left).

With France is that sweet enemy and I can't think of a single example of "French style..." in politics that's meant in a positive way - I imagine it's similar for them and "Anglo-Saxon model..."

I would just add that the ISA allowance is now £20k per annum. I would imagine that most well-off people would have substantial amounts invested in shares/bonds/whatever behind the ISA wall and thus free from tax.

Yeah - for sure I imagine they max their pension contributions first, then their ISAs and then other assets/investments. I think the maximum pension contributions where you get a tax benefit is £1 million (over your lifetime) then the ISA allowance - although I wonder how many actually use stocks and shares ISAs v just putting it in an ISA with a shit interest rate?

Although with auto-enrollment even though we almost all have stocks and shares we don't really have that culture like in the US because we mainly just hold shares in various funds?

[Josquius]

Got to say this more aggressive Australian politics seems to be completely the opposite direction to where we should be headed. Moving more the other way would really help fix a lot of bother in the land.

Kind of like brexit.

[Sheilbh]

Got to say this more aggressive Australian politics seems to be completely the opposite direction to where we should be headed. Moving more the other way would really help fix a lot of bother in the land.

Kind of like brexit.

Maybe - it's the old question of what democracy is for/what purpose it serves in your system.

I think it's difficult to shift and partly cultural so I suspect even if you tried to change the structural factors I'm not sure the culture would follow. For example, there are reasons Germany and some other countries are open to Grand Coalition politics, while I think it would be anathema in, say, Spain or Greece (or the UK) regardless of how people are elected or seated.

But I think it goes back for years - and Australia's always been more aggressive. Blair was very conscious of the model of Bob Hawke and Paul Keating (and called Hawke a mentor); Howard and the Tories; then full circle to New Labour aides going to Canberra to work for Gillard and Rudd. As well as the advisors and consultants there's also huge numbers of cross-over in the media too. It's a little bit similar with the US but less pronounced (though as English speakers we live in their world).

[Admiral Yi]

Shelf, would you agree that the word mate is used more frequently in adversarial situations than friendly ones?

[Sheilbh]

Shelf, would you agree that the word mate is used more frequently in adversarial situations than friendly ones?

No. I was in Norwich today for a day trip, popped to a pub for drink, had some lunch, wandered round - had train trips there and back. I've been called mate about 20 times today alone

It's all about tone and context. But you use it customer service, with friends, in a hostile situation, to take the piss, to smooth things over, to rile things up - it's a really multi-purpose word.

[Sheilbh]

I think the essential problem is that we have a two tier tax system because of the ever increasing importance of national insurance to the state's income. When I started work in the 1970s the basic rate of income tax was 35% but the National Insurance "stamp" was very little; consequently the taxes paid on income by pensioners were broadly similar to those paid by workers. Fast forward 40 years and government after government has reduced the headline rate of tax by reducing income tax rates (now only 20%) while increasing both employers and employees NI. Pensioners are now taxed far more lightly than workers; so much so that retirement can result in increased income for some.

So I suggest that we start levying national insurance on pensioners as well as workers. The poor pensioners will pay very little if anything extra while the rich ones will be making an appropriate contribution. The only problem is that if a party suggested this it would get very few seats.

And it's got worse because of student loan repayments which are effectively a tax. Even excluding the student loans (basically add 9%) - and while this is almost certainly out of date, this is no way to run a tax system


My understanding is every Chancellor since at least Brown has wanted to and looked at merging National Insurance and income tax but it's just difficult and almost certainly going to be catastrophically unpopular. National Insurance is incredible branding though - it's just a tax that we use on current spending. But people bring it up as a "I've paid into my National Insurance" in a way they don't with other taxes. It's also amazing to me that Gordon Brown's "penny on National Insurance for the NHS" was basically impossible for the Tories to attack, while they could easily get people on side criticising a proposed rise in inheritance tax.

Edit: Separately - incredible poll in the Times. Only 13% of people trust Truss to bring down inflation (21% for Sunak and 31% for Starmer) - and 70% do not trust her. I feel like choosing a leader who is -57% on the most important issue to voters is a bold strategy.

[Admiral Yi]

No. I was in Norwich today for a day trip, popped to a pub for drink, had some lunch, wandered round - had train trips there and back. I've been called mate about 20 times today alone

It's all about tone and context. But you use it customer service, with friends, in a hostile situation, to take the piss, to smooth things over, to rile things up - it's a really multi-purpose word.

My impression is probably skewed by the youtube clips on Youkay I see.  Illegal tipping, bicyclists vs. drivers, that sort of thing.

[Tamas]

Mate can mean whatever you want it to and is used extensively in any conceivable situation. As Sheilbh said it is about tone and context.

[Josquius]

I definitely mostly use mate when I'm speaking down to a moron.
When they inevitably reply that I'm not their mate I then switch to pal.

It's a weird word in that I find it's most commonly used with acquaintances. Neighbours, friends of friends, folk you barely know, than actual mates.