Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

It's another of those things where the Tories aren't comfortable with an area of society and the economy where the UK is very good.

But it's also part of a wider line of thinking - which includes some Labour people - for at least the last 40 years that the UK education system is too academic and old fashioned, and should be re-shaped into something more "modern" plus a pathway for non-academic learning. Basically "we should simply be Germany"

You saw it with Williamson pushing for non-university education paths, further education, technical education (unsuccessfully) - he is, of course, a backer of Sunak. You see it with Lord Baker (Thatcher's education secretary) attacking the curriculum as "Edwardian" and saying it should be "career-led and technical" given that we're in the "digital age of artificial intelligence and net zero" - "instead of these 8 academic subjects, schools at 11 should teach a basic core of 5 - English, maths, two sciences and digital skills. Then they could choose a wide range of other GCSEs such as engineering, business studies, design & technology, health and social care, sports science, economics, biosciences and all the cultural and creative subjects needed by our burgeoning entertainment and streaming industries with creative writing and the performing arts." It's a very business/industry lens of the education system - you are educated to earn and be productive.

The flipside of that argument is Tony Blair who more than doubled the number of students at universities and set a target of 50% of kids leaving school going into university. He now says we should basically double down on that approach and set a new target of 70%.

I'm in two minds about it because I think both sides have points. My instinct is that obviously university education should not be exclusively about earning potential (and I note that Lord Baker did history); on the other hand if we're saying 50-70% of kids should go to university, making a degree a default qualifiaction for any job and imposing outrageous fees on them for doing it - then it's hard and possibly wrong to say to students that they should just study for love/interest or to encourage them onto courses that make the universities money but not their students.

Similarly we are closing off increasing areas where it was possible to have a career without a degree - so teaching requires a degree but also nursing now requires a degree and there are plans to make police recruitment require a degree. When I was in hospital with my injury I got chatting to a student nurse and it sounds like an absolute con to me - she didn't have any university based classes or learning but would have exams. Instead all the learning was practical on the wards/in hospitals (and this was her first term). While her student fees and loans were being covered by the NHS she wasn't getting paid - so it felt like we just moved from junior nurses being paid while they learn to doing it for free because most of what they needed to learn was practical experience.

[Sheilbh]

It's bizzare how the UK has imported the American right wing paranoia of universities being havens of leftist indoctrination.
Really demonstrates the ignorance of those who have never been to a university (and how keen to play pretend those who should know better but have something to gain are)

Is it paranoia if it's kind of true? Having gone to university is one of the strongest indicators someone is unlikely to vote Tory/likely to vote Labour - up there with age and private renters.

I don't think it's indoctrination, though there is evidence that going to university does move people on the liberal/open-authoritarian/closed line. I think it's material (same for young people and private renters) - if that's right Sunak's policy isn't particularly mad.

[HVC]

I guess this is ultimately pointless, as he's toast already, but if this is the kind of "red meat" issue that gets Tory juices going then it's worrisome.

Sunak vows to crack down on university degrees that do not improve 'earning potential'

Not sure how tuition works out there, but it would sure help with student debt out here across the pond.

[Zanza]

It's another of those things where the Tories aren't comfortable with an area of society and the economy where the UK is very good.

I wonder why though. The UK is world-beating (to use a Johnson term) in cultural output, design, marketing etc. And those industries are actually attractive to lots of people. And don't have much of a shady side, unlike banking or some industrial businesses. So politicians should be all over these.

But it's also part of a wider line of thinking - which includes some Labour people - for at least the last 40 years that the UK education system is too academic and old fashioned, and should be re-shaped into something more "modern" plus a pathway for non-academic learning. Basically "we should simply be Germany"

That system is under a lot of stress as more and more people opt for university instead. It has lost a lot of its social status and is just not as economically attractive.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder why though. The UK is world-beating (to use a Johnson term) in cultural output, design, marketing etc. And those industries are actually attractive to lots of people. And don't have much of a shady side, unlike banking or some industrial businesses. So politicians should be all over these.

I agree - I think part of it is probably that the Tories view (and have always viewed) the culture and university sectors as ideologically opposed to them. It's a bit of a mirror image to Labour's suspicion of the City/finance (except under Blair). In both cases I think it's probably fairly true.

More broadly though I think there's an issue in British culture that basically doesn't value the services sector (which is most of the economy and includes areas where the UK is comparatively strong) and doesn't see it as part of the "real" economy. I think nostalgia/cultural bias towards manufacturing (which isn't a big sector and where we have been historically dreadful ) is a problem because I don't think any political project can work if it doesn't engage with reality. We are not going to simply be Germany with a strong manufacturing sector with a big mittelstand - we should look at where we are and work from there, not from a fantasy.

That system is under a lot of stress as more and more people opt for university instead. It has lost a lot of its social status and is just not as economically attractive.

Interesting. I don't know much about the German system but it is routinely used as an example here, like an "Australian style" points system. Again I'm not sure how much engages with reality v a fantasy version of these international policies.

Not sure how tuition works out there, but it would sure help with student debt out here across the pond.

That is a big issue here. As I say I think young people, graduates and renters are anti-Tory for the same reason (and there's a lot of overlap). All they've known in 12 years of Tory government is increased student fees/loans/debt, needing a degree for relatively low paid jobs and a far narrower route to home ownership - plus low-growth in real wages.

As I say I'm not sure what I think on thisi and I see both sides' point on it - the only thing I know is I wouldn't start from where we are. But there we go

Edit: So yeah the other bit of Sunak's proposal is to "raise prestige" of vocational education and require maths and English to be part of a core curriculum to 18 instead of subjects you can drop at 16 (I think A-levels are too narrow and we should move to a baccalaureate system but it's a long-term thing and we don't currently have the teachers to do it). He's also complained that the system is too narrow, too early (which is true) and not fit for "the economy of tomorrow".

Against this is Truss who is proposing that every 18 year old who gets top grades in their A-levels should be guaranteed an interview at Oxbridge and wants to be "the education Prime Minister" but seems quite university focused.

Again it just seems like the two sides of the debate about education in the UK that goes back at least 40 years - if not earlier (think CP Snow and The Two Cultures but it goes back even beyond then).

[celedhring]

Brexit fucked up a lot of cultural collaboration too. We used to fly people from the UK to work on projects, since they have such a trove of talented people over there, and with English there wasn't really much of a language barrier. But not anymore.

[Zanza]

Brexit fucked up a lot of cultural collaboration too. We used to fly people from the UK to work on projects, since they have such a trove of talented people over there, and with English there wasn't really much of a language barrier. But not anymore.

We had some English consultants in my job before Brexit. These days, the hassle with the visa means you can just as well get an Indian consultant....

[Sheilbh]

We had some English consultants in my job before Brexit. These days, the hassle with the visa means you can just as well get an Indian consultant....

And the dirty secret was probably that lots of British consultants out-source to Indian workers. Don't think I've ever worked on one of those projects without a large Indian project team.

But also the TCA basically doesn't touch services at all - which rather undermines the City as secret rulers of Britain/the Tories (I can't think of a conspirarcy theory more routinely pushed against all evidence - except maybe that the NHS is on the bring of privatisation). Labour are proposing light touch changes on that particularly for easy short-term visas for creatives (things like touring bands etc) which the EU was open to, not sure if that would cover Cel's colleagues.

It might partly reflect that the freedom of services is the least developed bit of the four freedoms (I don't think there's been a serious proposal on deepening that in about 20 years since Bolkestein) so the options are broadly single market or bust really.

For what it's worth in terms of Brexit impact, services have been less affected than goods (again that probably just reflects the less developed single market in services - and maybe geography matters less there? ). It's broadly flat since the early 2010s. Weirdly in both services and goods there's more trade impact on imports than exports, which economist have noted but don't have an explanation for because the UK is far more relaxed about what comes into the UK market so isn't imposing strict checks that you'd expect to impact imports - while the EU is far more rigorous. No idea why, but from what I've read no-one else has any idea why either.

[Zanza]

Wasn't a secret. The Indian company we did business with brought the English consultants as they were a better fit for our business stakeholders.

On trade in services, the one noticeable thing is that unlike the trade in goods, the various statistics agencies publish very, very different figures. Hard to tell what the truth is.

[Josquius]

It's bizzare how the UK has imported the American right wing paranoia of universities being havens of leftist indoctrination.
Really demonstrates the ignorance of those who have never been to a university (and how keen to play pretend those who should know better but have something to gain are)

Is it paranoia if it's kind of true? Having gone to university is one of the strongest indicators someone is unlikely to vote Tory/likely to vote Labour - up there with age and private renters.

I don't think it's indoctrination, though there is evidence that going to university does move people on the liberal/open-authoritarian/closed line. I think it's material (same for young people and private renters) - if that's right Sunak's policy isn't particularly mad.

I don't think its that straightforward, I think there is a heavy amount of correlation doesn't equal causation at work here. The kind of person who would be attracted to university to better themselves is also likely someone who thinks in more than 2 dimensions and doesn't just look for simple answers to complex questions.

Certainly I've never met more Tories in my life than at a UK uni. I wonder whether later in life, being largely intelligent people, a chunk of them realise the errors in their upbringing.

[Sheilbh]

On trade in services, the one noticeable thing is that unlike the trade in goods, the various statistics agencies publish very, very different figures. Hard to tell what the truth is.

Yeah there's huge variance in how you measure services and I have no idea how you could do it - especially with public sector services. Although my understanding is that it's partly official statistics but also research from the LSE all pointing in the same direction - of course that should have grown from the early 2010s and may not have because of Brexit. But given the timing and how service dominated our economy is I wonder if it's actually just a reflection of the flatlining of productivity since the financial crisis?

Although that measurement issue is a thing with covid around the way services are measured - so during covid there was a huge drop in productivity from the health sector, which is obviously nonsense, but linked to the way statisticians measure it.

Edit: Yeah and for HVC Sunak's point was directly related to debt: he wants reforms to "take a tougher approach to university degrees that saddle students with debt, without improving their earning potential".

[Sheilbh]

Re the SNP being like the Tories in Westminster, but worse and somehow progressive. I mentioned it before but history professors are again complaining that the new unit on the Atlantic slave trade as part of the curriculum for standard grades (exams at 16) includes looking at the impact on British ports like Bristol and Liverpool.

But no mention of Glasgow - which imported more tobacco than all other ports in the UK combined. I'd also add that over 30% of plantation owners in the Caribbean were Scottish and Campbell is a more common surname in Jamaica than Scotland.

Hard to see it as anything but narrative/myth-making by the SNP - and, sadly, looking at the response online lots of people pointing out that they are "unionist" historians

If it was Westminster there'd be a full-blown multi-day scandal about this. Because it's Scotland and the SNP and Sturgeon, it gets a little coverage (mainly in right-wing papers) and most people don't know/ignore it.

Edit: Oh and separately there's problems getting essential supplies to the Hebrides due to problems with the ferries, which are supposed to be replaced but the company that won the contract (over the objections of the nationalised ferry operator) is years behind schedule and overbudget - lots of allegations around corruption and cronyism though. As I say Holyrood's like Westminster but worse because it gets less scrutiny from the press.

[Valmy]

Is there no major newspapers in Glasgow and other major Scottish cities to cover this kind of thing?

The whitewashing the SNP is doing here is pretty depressing. It is clear the strategy is to blame others and outsiders for all of Scotland's sins.

[Sheilbh]

Is there no major newspapers in Glasgow and other major Scottish cities to cover this kind of thing?

The whitewashing the SNP is doing here is pretty depressing. It is clear the strategy is to blame others and outsiders for all of Scotland's sins.

It's like the whole "how do you do fellow oppressed Celts" with Ireland - which is quite the take on Scottish history. Scotland as first victim of the British empire etc.

It's had coverage in the Scottish press (obviously not the National ). I've mentioned this story before but it reminds me of the comment from Chris Cook who was formerly a policy reporter for Newsnight and is now senior reporter at the FT noted that, if you're a policy reporter trying to cover UK policy and all nations "there's a  lot more 'don't upset the government' [in Scotland] than in England, even on stuff where people think they're wrong. At the WonkHE conference a few years ago, I made a point about how everyone in Scotland knows there's more politics in the dispersal of research cash than in England, only to have the VC sitting next to me interrupt me to issue what sounded like a hostage statement."

Everything the Tories or doing in Westminster, or people just fear they're doing, is being done in Holyrood with bells on. Partly I think it's because the UK media doesn't report Scotland so scandals don't go "national" in the same way and if they do, it's like it's a foreign country. They'll report Sturgeon like she's some dignitary from overseas - say, Jacinda Arden - rather than a participant in all of our politics. I also think a large part of it is that progressive/liberal-left opinion in England is that the SNP are basically benign mixed with their anger at Brexit/Johnson etc.

[Valmy]

Well as an American that is pretty common. What is going on in Oklahoma City, Baton Rouge, Little Rock, or Santa Fe doesn't exactly get a lot of coverage here in Texas. I doubt many Texans could even name the governors of the neighboring states much less have strong opinions on their policies. They might as well be foreign dignitaries.

Granted there are only four "states" in your union. So probably a bit easier to follow along.