Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Poorly run is me being a bit mean about Will Straw - but in part because I think he sums a lot of what's wrong with Britain (I'm sure he's a lovely man ).

The Remain campaign had big structural and strategy issues that were less of a problem for Leave. Leave ran a far better campaign.

And there's no argument I disagree with more than "Democratic messaging sucks" It does suck but because it's trying to cover up a howling void where a strategy should be, which is the real problem. Voters aren't stupid, they can tell when messaging is not connected to anything.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Good results in the by-elections :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/24/tories-lose-byelections-wakefield-tiverton-honiton-labour-lib-dems

 

[Josquius]

Yeah. Labour winning was looking a bit touch and go for a while but they've won and by more than a squeak-through. Bi-elections with a million parties tend not to give big margins of victory but 4000....checking up Labour hasn't managed that in Wakefield since 2005.

Probably more the Tories current state losing for them than Labour winning; in 3rd was an ex local tory independent on 8%/2000, so  good not to read too much into it, but we can hope.

Also fingers crossed that rural traditional tory constituencies are cracking rather than the recent lib dem successes just being protest votes. Lets finally be having my dream of the 2000s- the lib dems taking over from the tories as the other main party.

The "poorly run Remain campaign" argument is very similar to the "Democratic messaging sucks" argument.

Isn't this what right wingers who haven't totally lost their soul say to argue that the Democrats should go really right wing, only slightly to the left of Trump, in order to win?
Kind of a different thing I think.

[Admiral Yi]

Isn't this what right wingers who haven't totally lost their soul say to argue that the Democrats should go really right wing, only slightly to the left of Trump, in order to win?
Kind of a different thing I think.

This is not the narrative I would choose myself.

[Sheilbh]

Sir John Curtice pointing out that these aren't normal mid-term issues. Across the last five by elections the Tory vote has dropped by about 20%. Last time that happened was in the 90s under John Major 

Not perfect for Labour but a little better than the national polls and local elections, so about what you'd expect. And, as was the case 1997-2005, it looks like there's really strong tactical voting.

I saw that Oliver Dowden has resigned, I'm assuming that's jumping before he's pushed. The cabinet, bo doubt, will remain supine. But a 1922 Committee officer said they'd need to make "difficult decisions" in coming days and weeks so we may end up back to the way May was removed.

[Sheilbh]

Lord Howard had said the country would be better off under new leadership, the cabinet "should very carefully consider their position" and that it might be necessary to change the leadership rules to vote Johnson out.

Seems like a fairly big comment from a former leader (albeit one who fired Johnson) - but also gets to the lack of factional issues around Johnson. It's not about policy, but Johnson, which makes it difficult to claim it's a Remoaner plot when you have Lord Howard, Steve Baker, David David and Mark Francois saying you should go.

Edit: And the traditional Lib Dem victory gimmick

[Sheilbh]

Why you can never trust the Liberals/why they're not a progressive force - Lib Dem MP suggesting using the army to break the strike

And another Lib Dem MP saying they could maybe work with the Tories if they had a different leader. Which is a reminder that every single time they've held the balance of power, they have opted to work with the Tories.

[Gups]

Why you can never trust the Liberals/why they're not a progressive force - Lib Dem MP suggesting using the army to break the strike

And another Lib Dem MP saying they could maybe work with the Tories if they had a different leader. Which is a reminder that every single time they've held the balance of power, they have opted to work with the Tories.

Not true. It's happened twice post-war. Once they worked with Labour, the other time with the Tories.

[Sheilbh]

Didn't they try to negotiate with Heath and the unionists first, then move to Labour once that failed?

[Josquius]

I must say I do like how much tactical voting seems to be breaking through despite no deals or owt between the parties.
Really hope this carries through to the GE.
The greens should probably bugger off too.

[Sheilbh]

I must say I do like how much tactical voting seems to be breaking through despite no deals or owt between the parties.
Really hope this carries through to the GE.

I'm almost certain it will. I think voters are pretty canny at tactical voting and getting the result they want.

I also think one consequence of the Tories doing well everywhere and Brexit and Corbyn is that I think the Lib Dems and Labour have got out of each other's way. So I don't think there's a single Lib Dem seat in Labour's top 100 seats and there's only a handful of Labour seats in the Lib Dem's top 50 target seats.

I might be wrong but I think there was a lot of overlap of Labour and the Lib Dems basically fighting each other in places like Bristol and Sheffield. One of the effects of Brexit and Corbyn, I think, has been to sort those seats so the areas the Lib Dem and Labour need to win basically look very different and there's not much overlap. Which also creates a challenge for the Tories of where to put resources.

The greens should probably bugger off too.

It's the effect of FPTP, I'd be really surprised if the Green vote didn't collapse from where it's polling now as it comes down to a choice between Labour or Tory. Although it'll be interesting to see how they do in those countryside Tory areas where they've been winning council seats.

[Gups]

Didn't they try to negotiate with Heath and the unionists first, then move to Labour once that failed?

Not really. There were negotiations following Feb 1974 but they got nowhere. They didn't then support Labour until the Lib-Lab pact of 1977-1979

[Sheilbh]

Okay - sorry that's fair.

I still don't like them and won't ever get over the coalition

[Josquius]

Looks like Johnson is starting with his red meat campaign to try and recreate the conditions of the last GE.
First trying to make trans people a big topic of debate, which hopefully won't go anywhere, and second and far more importantly, passing in the commons a decision to break international law.

I really hope the world will forgive the UK after the past few years.

[garbon]

I see some questioning why reporters thought it important at this time to ask him questions about transgender issues.