Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

20% of all EU regulatory checks done on the internal NI border? Colour me skeptical.

[Sheilbh]

I mean he says it's according to the systems he sees so it could actually be more.

But it does make sense that a disproportionate amount (probably in terms of pouplation and volume/price of trade) would happen on an internal border because of the difference between international trade and domestic retail supply chains.

Edit: More broadly though I think the parties need to work out a way that de-escalates the situation in Northern Ireland and is a workable solution - I don't know what that looks like.

Separately I just hope Dublin and London have figures they can trust (like Jonathan Powell in the Blair-Ahern days and there were similar figures in the Major-Bruton years too) who can talk to Republicans and Loyalists. And Dublin and London probably need to be talking a lot and working out a strategy - although I worry about how plausible that is because unlike in the 90s and 00s unionists clearly have zero trust in this government , which is understandable, and it's more difficult for an Irish government when Sinn Fein are the main opposition instead of a fringe party that got about 2% of the vote and were unacceptable to most voters.

[Josquius]

In other news, what do London-folk make of the mayoral race?

This was...something. The headline says it all really.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/02/tory-london-mayor-hopeful-says-basic-income-would-be-used-for-lots-of-drugs

I've read muttering around, that the Tories know they won't win and have given up on even seriously fighting it so they're instead simply playing for the crowd outside of London. Trying to kick up culture war nonsense and highlight London as an evil lair of the metropolitan liberal elite (absolutely not just a repurposing of 'Jews'!)/knife wielding immigrant scum.

[garbon]

Apparently there is a rush of scammer calls going on, I've received 3 calls in the past two days from numbers I don't know before working hours. This morning they left a voicemail letting me know my national insurance number had been compromised on the border of Wales and if I didn't call them they would be pursuing prosecution against my national insurance number and me.

[Tamas]

Apparently there is a rush of scammer calls going on, I've received 3 calls in the past two days from numbers I don't know before working hours. This morning they left a voicemail letting me know my national insurance number had been compromised on the border of Wales and if I didn't call them they would be pursuing prosecution against my national insurance number and me.

I have had two calls now of being arrested for tax fraud if I don't talk to them.

It's going on in Hungary as well. The article abou that linked a video of an American sheriff being called and talking to them. It was such a think Indian accent I assume they have some office set up where these people are cold-calling half the world and reading their script. I'd assume getting access to one Western bank account details could finance the operation for a week

[Sheilbh]

In other news, what do London-folk make of the mayoral race?

This was...something. The headline says it all really.

Bailey's the worst Tory candidate I can think of - and I'm including Jeffrey Archer whose candidacy ended with him being arrested for perjury. Which is a shame in a way because I like Sadiq but he's not been a great mayor so a bit of competition wouldn't hurt.

I've read muttering around, that the Tories know they won't win and have given up on even seriously fighting it so they're instead simply playing for the crowd outside of London. Trying to kick up culture war nonsense and highlight London as an evil lair of the metropolitan liberal elite (absolutely not just a repurposing of 'Jews'!)/knife wielding immigrant scum.

I don't think that's true at all - Shaun Bailey's always been like this and from what I can see the Tories know they're going to lose so are really just doing the bare minimum of a campaign. They're not actually getting Bailey on the media anywhere near as much as you'd expect if they were wanting stuff to go national. I think it's likely Bailey just stays as a London Assembly member and that's it. He was a Cameron A-lister but didn't win his seat, he's been a bad candidate for mayor and, I could be wrong, but I suspet he won't be picked as a candidate for another safe or competitive seat.

[Sheilbh]

Apparently there is a rush of scammer calls going on, I've received 3 calls in the past two days from numbers I don't know before working hours. This morning they left a voicemail letting me know my national insurance number had been compromised on the border of Wales and if I didn't call them they would be pursuing prosecution against my national insurance number and me.

Oh yeah I've been getting HMRC is going to sue me apparently - also some dodgy payments from my account with HSBC (which doesn't exist).

[Sheilbh]

This strikes me as a story that will run and become very difficult for Johnson. He'll eventually have to repay the money but it'll be too late for him to get any credit.

Reminds me of Tony Blair's expensive wallpaper

[Josquius]

Apparently there is a rush of scammer calls going on, I've received 3 calls in the past two days from numbers I don't know before working hours. This morning they left a voicemail letting me know my national insurance number had been compromised on the border of Wales and if I didn't call them they would be pursuing prosecution against my national insurance number and me.

What particularly sucks is they're of the "press 1 to connect" variety thus reducing the chances for fun wasting their time and money.

[Richard Hakluyt]

This strikes me as a story that will run and become very difficult for Johnson. He'll eventually have to repay the money but it'll be too late for him to get any credit.

Reminds me of Tony Blair's expensive wallpaper

The billions wasted on contracts with cronies doesn't really matter; but a £5,000 sofa will destroy a PM's reputation 

[Josquius]

People don't understand big numbers.
Lose a billion and replace it with 400 million? Well that isnt much less is it. Its fine.
Spend 32 million on a contract for your friend? Naughty but Meh. Spend 5000 on something for yourself? 5000 is so much bigger than 32! Such a scandal!

[Tamas]

People don't understand big numbers.
Lose a billion and replace it with 400 million? Well that isnt much less is it. Its fine.
Spend 32 million on a contract for your friend? Naughty but Meh. Spend 5000 on something for yourself? 5000 is so much bigger than 32! Such a scandal!

Yes this is very real and has been a big problem in Hungary. The scale of stealing is quite simply past comprehension of regular people. It just doesn't register with them that more than their lifetime worth of tax contributions are given to cronies on pretty much a daily basis.

[Sheilbh]

Nigel Farage announcing he's stepping down from politics (again) and pivoting to Cameo videos (unexpected).

It does feel like over the last year he's experimented with various messages - anti immigration at Dover, lockdown-scepticism etc. None of them have really worked. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up angling for a media commentator job now.

I still think the most likely space for a Farage-like party is probably around the environment. There's already lots of local opposition around any moves against cars/for cycling and in the UK we've cut emissions a lot but we've sort of done the easy bit around power generation and the network. The next stage to get to net zero is going to be about people's homes and transport and lifestyle. One of the big challenges will be making sure the impact of energy transition is felt fairly, but I don't think it will be and I think there might be space for a party of people who are the relative losers/feel it more (home-owners who rely on cars especially outside of cities).

But, perhaps it won't be Farage picking up those votes.

[garbon]

I like that Piers Morgan brought Chaka Khan on to talk about Megan Markle's interview.

[Josquius]

Nigel Farage announcing he's stepping down from politics (again) and pivoting to Cameo videos (unexpected).

It does feel like over the last year he's experimented with various messages - anti immigration at Dover, lockdown-scepticism etc. None of them have really worked. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up angling for a media commentator job now.

I still think the most likely space for a Farage-like party is probably around the environment. There's already lots of local opposition around any moves against cars/for cycling and in the UK we've cut emissions a lot but we've sort of done the easy bit around power generation and the network. The next stage to get to net zero is going to be about people's homes and transport and lifestyle. One of the big challenges will be making sure the impact of energy transition is felt fairly, but I don't think it will be and I think there might be space for a party of people who are the relative losers/feel it more (home-owners who rely on cars especially outside of cities).

But, perhaps it won't be Farage picking up those votes.

Agreed, I do see an increasingly large amount of this kid of bollocks going around. Farage's gang have been pushing it too.
It plays very nicely with the far right's general vibe of anything bad is the (labour) local council's fault too.

This is an area where ignorance sells very easily. So many people just can't think beyond two dimensions. Deny them the right to drive their car right up to any shop in the city centre and you're massively inconveniencing THEM. There's just no consideration that they wouldn't be the only car on the road and of the improved economic and health benefits of reduced car use.

I like that Piers Morgan brought Chaka Khan on to talk about Megan Markle's interview.

"Find me a woman the same colour as this one!"