Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Cabinet ministers apparently furious at lockdown - plus, unlike last time, papers are starting to come out against it (and from my experience this morning in the barbers, people are not convinced either). Add all that to Labour taking the lead in the polls and Starmer taking the lead in personal polls v Johnson.

Again it feels very unlikely he'll be PM at the time of the next election and you just wonder when the Tories get rid of him. I wouldn't be surprised if they do it next year. Let him get the credit/blame for getting Brexit done, then (hopefully) there's a vaccine and he can be put out to pasture and bring in a new leader with clean hands to do the rebuild.

Edit: E.g. from Matt Chorley of the Times:

Matt Chorley
@MattChorley
Mood among Tory MPs is seriously bad. Even those who think this is the right thing to do now are dismayed that it's come to this.

"Shambolic. Rudderless ramblings.   constituents getting in touch furious or in tears."

"Grim grim grim"

"I think it could be his Suez"
All a bit late and cobbled too.

Cabinet ministers didn't know that furlough was being extended or that "Stay At Home" was back until they saw it on the TV.
Conservative minister: "The incompetence is another level. Is this a deliberate destruction of the Tory Party? People only vote for us because they think we don't care, but are competent. Lose the competence and we're fucked. We've lost the competence. And we are fucked."

Also saw one person's description that this was just a very long resignation speech, just Johnson doesn't know it yet.

[Josquius]

When idiotic viewpoints collide

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-54777346

Nigel Farage: Brexit Party to focus on fighting lockdown

Nigel Farage has applied to change the Brexit Party's name to Reform UK, promising to focus on dealing with the government's "woeful" Covid response.

He said renewed lockdown would "result in more life-years lost than it hopes to save" and argued that "building immunity" would be more effective.

The party leader also said there should be "focused protection" from coronavirus for the vulnerable.

But Boris Johnson will tell MPs later there is "no alternative" to lockdown.

From Thursday, pubs, restaurants, gyms, non-essential shops and places of worship in England will close for four weeks, in an effort to stem the increase in infections.

The House of Commons vote on the measures on Wednesday, with the prime minister outlining his plans to MPs on Monday.

PM warns of virus deaths 'twice as bad' as spring
Second England lockdown 'a devastating blow'
Several Conservatives are expected to oppose the lockdown, including Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench MPs, and former cabinet minister Esther McVey.

Labour will back the government, although leader Sir Keir Starmer says it is bringing in the restrictions later than should have been the case.

On Sunday, the UK recorded 23,254 new confirmed cases of coronavirus and 162 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

2px presentational grey line
Analysis box by Alex Forsyth, political correspondent
This isn't the first time Nigel Farage has raised the idea of rebranding the Brexit Party. Even before the results of last year's general election rolled in, he said his plan was to change its name into - guess what? - the Reform Party. He even claimed to have registered the new title.

The idea was to change politics "for good", campaigning to overhaul the voting system and abolish the House of Lords.

Now it seems Mr Farage is returning to the idea of a re-launch - this time with an anti-lockdown focus.

Perhaps he sensed an opportunity to return to the political debate.

It might cause some nerves in No 10. Mr Farage has posed a threat to mainstream parties - not least the Tories - in the past, espousing populist views which have at times shifted the national debate.

Boris Johnson is attempting to find some middle ground between lockdown advocates and sceptics, with increasing push-back from the latter within his own party.

There is a risk he ends up pleasing neither, and Mr Farage stands poised - as he has before - with an alternative view he'll have no qualms in expressing.

2px presentational grey line
Mr Farage set up the Brexit Party ahead of last year's European Parliament elections, winning 29 seats - the most of any UK party.

In an email to supporters, he and party chairman Richard Tice said this had "rescued Brexit and in so doing, restored some confidence in democracy in the UK".

While they were "keeping a close eye" on Mr Johnson "to make sure he does not sell us down the river" in any trade deal with the EU, they said it was time to "apply our energy and resources to the other pressing issues facing the nation".

They applied last Friday to the Electoral Commission to rename the Brexit Party as Reform UK.

Their email to supporters said: "The government has dug itself into a hole [with coronavirus] and rather than admit its mistakes, it keeps on digging.

"The new national lockdown will result in more life-years lost than it hopes to save, as non-Covid patients with cancer, cardiac, lung and other illnesses have treatments delayed or cancelled again. Suicides are soaring. Businesses and jobs are being destroyed."

Longer lockdown?
Mr Farage and Mr Tice said the UK should follow the Great Barrington Declaration, which calls for "focused protection" for the elderly and other groups particularly vulnerable to Covid-19, while others continue to live relatively normally.

Their email said: "The rest of the population should, with simple hygiene measures and a dose of common sense, get on with life - this way we build immunity in the population. We must learn to live with the virus not hide in fear of it."

Treatments were "getting better" and survival rates were improving, they added.

On Sunday, Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said the lockdown in England could be extended if it took longer than four weeks to bring the transmission rate of the virus down.

The government has said schools will remain open, with Mr Johnson expected to tell the Commons later that he was "right to try every possible option" - including region-by-region restrictions - before moving on to a national measures.

After an extension to the furlough scheme was announced for England, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross called for similar support to be available if the country needed to go into a full lockdown.

In Wales, First Minister Mark Drakeford has said the 17-day "firebreak" lockdown will end on 9 November, as planned.

Schools in Northern Ireland reopen on Monday after an extended half-term break, while other restrictions including the closure of pubs, bars and restaurants continue until 13 November.

[Tamas]

Just heard on Sky News that Stramer is gunning for Sunak, saying that it was him who blocked the half-term circuit break idea.

[The Brain]

Impossible. Sunak was doing tasks in Electrical.

[Sheilbh]

Just heard on Sky News that Stramer is gunning for Sunak, saying that it was him who blocked the half-term circuit break idea.

It's not surprising, as I say at the time there were reports that Cummings, Johnson and Hancock wanted the circuit break but the rest of the caibnet (read: the Treasury/politician on the rise) voted against it. And I think our response to an extent can be described as the Health Department taking the lead, the Treasury re-asserting itself and now we're back at Health Department in charge. I think the best thing Johnson could have done was set up a war cabinet for responding to covid that didn't include the Chancellor.

On the Farage thing - grifters gonna grift. Farage's position will always be to look for the opportunistic political space and occupy it, this was him in March: "So government policy is that it is desirable for COVID-19 to kill hundreds of thousands of people so that we develop herd immunity. Just cant believe it."

It is interesting/politically difficult for the Tories though because the public strongly supports lockdown measures and normally thinks the government isn't doing enough. That's also true for Tory voters. But Tory members, MPs and the Tory commentariat are really opposed to lockdown. There was a moment of almost achieving self-awareness by Daniel Hannan earlier: "A disquieting thought for lockdown-sceptical conservative columnists. We all know that, if Boris was still one of us, he'd be writing what we're writing. But does it occur to you that (for that reason) the reverse might apply? That if you were PM, you'd be doing what he is doing?"

No doubt it was fleeting and the normal service of strident certainty will resume

[Admiral Yi]

Great piece in the Atlantic that expands on the point I was making about how our discourse is so shaped by the US:

I liked.

One beef; this is the second time I've read that race relations are different in You Kay because your blacks were not slaves.  Surely all the Carribbean immigrants are descendents of slaves.

[Sheilbh]

One beef; this is the second time I've read that race relations are different in You Kay because your blacks were not slaves.  Surely all the Carribbean immigrants are descendents of slaves.

Yeah. This is true and it's important in the context of the Caribbean, but I think the experience is different because Caribbean migrants never came to the UK as slaves and never lived here as slaves. They were immigrants who came here for the usual reasons immigrants do: a better life. Initially warmly welcomed as part of the war effort, when Caribbeans were in the services but then when they arrived as migrants (at the request of the UK government to help the "mother country") they were met with racism, discrimination, hostility. And there's the recent shameful treatment of the Windrush generation.

But I think that is a different experience. Caribbean immigrants in the UK have a lot in common with other immigrants in the UK - I'm not sure that really applies with African-Americans (or, for that matter, the black and Indian communities in the Caribbean who were moved there by the British) and immigrants in the US.

I think there are now similarities that are being exposed through projects that show slave ownership across the UK (where many people would buy and trade an interest in slaves like stocks - only a rich few actually directly owned slaves).

[Zanza]

The EU has posted its readiness notes which gives you a good impression of the breadth of the single market as it goes way beyond trade in goods: https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/future-partnership/getting-ready-end-transition-period_en#readiness-notices

All of these changes are inevitable even if there is a thin FTA on tariffs, quotas and LPF.

[Tamas]

The EU has posted its readiness notes which gives you a good impression of the breadth of the single market as it goes way beyond trade in goods: https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/future-partnership/getting-ready-end-transition-period_en#readiness-notices

All of these changes are inevitable even if there is a thin FTA on tariffs, quotas and LPF.

One of us has been mislead then because all I have been hearing about are tariffs and colour of passports.

[Sheilbh]

The EU has posted its readiness notes which gives you a good impression of the breadth of the single market as it goes way beyond trade in goods: https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/future-partnership/getting-ready-end-transition-period_en#readiness-notices

All of these changes are inevitable even if there is a thin FTA on tariffs, quotas and LPF.

Yep. This is why, as I say, the deal/no deal is almost a side-show. The May government wanted to stay in the customs union and keep a lot of alignment with the EU (mainly because May cared about the union and would align with Northern Ireland to avoid border in the Irish Sea).

Once the Johnson government decided they weren't interested in that (because they don't care about the union), we were set for a big economic shock. The marginal benefit of a FTA in goods is pretty minimal compared to that impact.

[Zanza]

Tariffs, while not relevant for most products, are very high for some products. Traders and producers of these could be ruined by not having an FTA.
And of course implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol is much easier with a zero tariff/quota FTA.
And it would likely establish the basic governance framework for additional agreements.

So it is not worthless.

[Sheilbh]

Of course, it's not worthless and a deal is better than none.

But the bigger hit has been baked in since the election and the FTA is comparatively marginal compared to leaving the customs union and single market. That decision/shift from May to Johnson was really key.

[Tamas]

So there seems to be SNP fury about the government not pre-committing to extending the 80% furlough payments to Scotland if Scotland decide to lock down as well.

At one hand, I understand the SNP: they are part of the UK they should get the same treatment.

On the other hand, they want (and have) their own decision on pandemic restrictions, and they loudly proclaim Scotland can be independent. But OMG England gives us the moneis we need it?

[Josquius]

So there seems to be SNP fury about the government not pre-committing to extending the 80% furlough payments to Scotland if Scotland decide to lock down as well.

At one hand, I understand the SNP: they are part of the UK they should get the same treatment.

On the other hand, they want (and have) their own decision on pandemic restrictions, and they loudly proclaim Scotland can be independent. But OMG England gives us the moneis we need it?

I'm sure giving them control of their own money would be a more than welcome compromise

[Sheilbh]

Also I think it's nonsense - Johnson yesterday: "The furlough scheme is a UK-wide scheme. If other parts of the UK decide to go into measures which require the furlough scheme, then of course it's available to them. That has to be right and that applies not just now but of course in the future as well."

Curious if it'll be backdated for the Tier 3 regions like Manchester and Liverpool who went into lockdown with 2/3 pay for furloughed jobs, but it's now back at 80% (now it affects the rest of England). Because it is disgraceful that this is basically what Burnham was pushing for literally one week ago.