The destruction of the wage class, the politics of resentment and Donald Trump

[alfred russel]

I can't speak for all the low skilled immigrants that come here, but I doubt they are too different than most of my ancestors that came just over a century ago. That is, I think they are hoping more out of immigrating than a minimum wage job for themselves and something similar for their kids.

this is a kinda weird response

(1) pretty sure mexican illegal immigrants are low-skilled laborers and always have been
(2) illegal immigrants are unlikely to read up on the economist/whatever news sources are saying wage employment is up but non-wage employment remains down. they jump over and either get a job or they don't. if the mcjobs are on the rise, then the illegal immigrant has a job - goal obtained

maybe this is what happened-

the article mentioned an economic slump in 1990s mexico. a decade of poor economic conditions there resulted in people jumping over because it was easy and cheap, why not. over the years, it's gotten less easy and more expensive. and the 1990s economic slump is no longer the case. so maybe the 1990s slump created a situation where by 2000~ tons of mexicans were eager to jump over. this continued (despite it becoming increasingly more expensive/less easy to jump over) because everyone thought "america = $." then the crash happened, and even wage employment jobs were hard to come by. so, perceptions changed. while the expense/ease of jumping over has always been considered, it was trumped by positive perception. this perception being no longer the case, the expense/ease coupled with new negative perception means fewer mexicans jumping over.

LaCroix, are you saying that things are great for low skilled workers in this country? I'm working on the assumption that they are definitely not, and that low skilled workers are in fact getting squeezed from a number of factors. If you agree with me on that, then I'm not sure what you are arguing. If low skilled workers are getting squeezed, and immigrants are disproportionately low skilled, then it is logical that a) they are also getting squeezed, and b) all else being equal, they will immigrant in smaller numbers.

I also don't believe that you need to read the economist to get a sense that blue collar workers are under some pressue in this country.

[LaCroix]

I think mexican illegal immigrants coming to america looking to find $ were satisfied with the mcjobs they found. I mean, they wouldn't have kept coming if not. a mexican illegal immigrant is/was probably more satisfied with his mcjob than an american, because expectations are different. also, are the poor getting more squeezed today than they were a decade ago? I've heard there's a risk that the middle class is falling and there are more poor people as a result, but not that the conditions of the poor have gotten worse.

I don't think an illegal immigrant knows anything about his new country expect what he hears from everyone back home. hence the discussion re: perception.

[alfred russel]

You win, LaCroix, I too now can't understand why immigrants aren't rushing to this country when they can find chances to work at McDonalds.

[LaCroix]

You win, LaCroix, I too now can't understand why immigrants aren't rushing to this country when they can find chances to work at McDonalds.

I mean, what other work do you think they had in the past? haven't they always worked mcjobs? these no-english speaking mexicans weren't working IT

[Martinus]

Also, since Trump's supporters are primarily working class whites (historically the largest demographic in the United States), focusing on their relative decline is the key factor in explaining his rise. The shibboleths that have governed the liberal order over the past few decades have brought few material or political advantages for this group, so I don't blame them for looking elsewhere for a champion (even though Trump would be likely to do more harm than good) no matter how much middle-class and elite finger waving it engenders.

Ok, so the uneducated, lazy white trash is feeling like their fare has worsened over the years - which is true. What, if anything, can politicians do about this in your view (that does not involve simply diverting their attention to some scapegoat)?

[Martinus]

Incidentally, I think the primary reason for the destruction of the wage class is the total shift in the economy, in a way where the middle level jobs are simply becoming obsolete and disappearing from the market, leaving only either high paying highly skilled creative professional jobs on one end and low paying service jobs (mainly operating some form of "zero hours contracts" and "sharing economy" stuff - neither of which is a good way to live) on the other.

Other than turning to planned economy and creating jobs for the lower class, the only thing politicians can do is to encourage unions for the low skilled workers and/or create some sort of minimum guaranteed national monthly income - both of which are pretty socialist.

[LaCroix]

Incidentally, I think the primary reason for the destruction of the wage class is the total shift in the economy, in a way where the middle level jobs are simply becoming obsolete and disappearing from the market, leaving only either high paying highly skilled creative professional jobs on one end and low paying service jobs (mainly operating some form of "zero hours contracts" and "sharing economy" stuff - neither of which is a good way to live) on the other.

but there's still a need for managers, office admins, IT, etc. how has the economy shifted? manufacturing has had its slow and steady decline, but what else has changed?

[Monoriu]

A bit surprised that the wage class is larger than the salary class. 

What's wrong with Trump's hair anyway?

[alfred russel]

You win, LaCroix, I too now can't understand why immigrants aren't rushing to this country when they can find chances to work at McDonalds.

I mean, what other work do you think they had in the past? haven't they always worked mcjobs? these no-english speaking mexicans weren't working IT

As I said before, I don't think most immigrants have been coming here just to get that sweet minimum wage gig right off the boat. Some probably, but not most. They have been coming because both they and their children can take advantage of the opportunities here to have a better life.

An example--two of my great grandparents came from Italy, probably around 1900. No english, no money, probably like most Italian immigrants at the time. My great grandfather got a job as a coal miner--probably pretty shit work back then. My great grandparents made it a point that their children would not be Italian but American--they resolved none of them would learn Italian. My grandmother says that she remembers that some days she would wake up early and hear her parents conversing in Italian, but as soon as they realized she was there would switch to english so she wouldn't pick up the language (they spoke english by the time she was born). They put a huge emphasis on their children's education. So I can't exactly speak to what their mindset was when they came here--I never met them--but I strongly suspect that it went beyond the chance to get a gig as a coal miner.They made a conscious decision that their family would stop being italian and start being american because that promised a better future. And in fact my father ended up becoming judge so I think they were right.

If potential unskilled immigrants are beginning to see the US as a place of not so much social mobility, where they can still get that shit entry level work, but neither they nor their children will have a real good shot at the higher rungs, I would think lots of them will stay away. And I think that the economics of the country shows just that--that social mobility is not where it should be, and that becoming middle class is harder and harder. Also, look at what has happened to the real minimum wage over the past half century or so--those shit jobs have been getting shittier.

[Monoriu]

Incidentally, I think the primary reason for the destruction of the wage class is the total shift in the economy, in a way where the middle level jobs are simply becoming obsolete and disappearing from the market, leaving only either high paying highly skilled creative professional jobs on one end and low paying service jobs (mainly operating some form of "zero hours contracts" and "sharing economy" stuff - neither of which is a good way to live) on the other.

but there's still a need for managers, office admins, IT, etc. how has the economy shifted? manufacturing has had its slow and steady decline, but what else has changed?

When I was a kid, and went to a bank, I saw a huge number of teller counters.  This one did time deposits, that one did foreign exchange, the one over there did deposits and cash withdrawals, yet another one did account opening, etc.  Armies of tellers staffed them.  Now, most people use the ATM machines and online banking.  The bank tellers don't call themselves tellers anymore.  They are licenced wealth managers responsible to sell you life insurance products and mutual funds.

30 years ago when I went to a car park, they needed two people at the entrance.  One handed out the parking tickets.  The other took the cash and the tickets back.  Very soon they replaced these with machines.  Drivers would pay at a cashier's office.  So two clerks became one cashier.  Now most carparks use RFID electronic money that eliminated the need for the cashier.  A few IT people and mechanics could support many carparks. 

Anybody hardworking enough can do repetitive tasks like counting cash and handing out parking tickets.  It is just a lot harder if the bar is raised and people need to learn how insurance policies are structured, and how to program RFID electronic money IT systems.

[LaCroix]

unskilled immigrants from not-mexico haven't flooded the country for probably sixty+ years. it's expensive to get here if you don't live in mexico. so, I'm not sure whether old era immigration can be applied to what happened in the 1990s+. I don't think many post 90s era mexicans moved to the US expecting social mobility. they earned more from mcjobs than they did back home. then the crash hit and there were fewer low-level jobs, so word traveled back that america isn't a hotspot for a good job (mexican standards)

@mono: I thought there was some discussion between Minsky and others (Ide?) that automation hasn't actually reduced all too many jobs... at least so far. but I could be misremembering or I misunderstood that convo.

[Monoriu]

@mono: I thought there was some discussion between Minsky and others (Ide?) that automation hasn't actually reduced all too many jobs... at least so far. but I could be misremembering or I misunderstood that convo.

The unemployment rate in Hong Kong has remained low, at 2-3%, throughout the last few decades.  There were some ups and downs of course, but the long-term trend has been low.  People are still getting jobs, that's for sure.  But instead of earning a lower middle class income as a generic bank teller, the people are now making minimum wage as janitors.  The kinds of jobs they are getting are very different.  All the reasonably paid and respectable jobs that the average Joe used to be able to get are disappearing.  You are either a lawyer or a janitor.  The middle road is gone. 

[Martinus]

Incidentally, I think the primary reason for the destruction of the wage class is the total shift in the economy, in a way where the middle level jobs are simply becoming obsolete and disappearing from the market, leaving only either high paying highly skilled creative professional jobs on one end and low paying service jobs (mainly operating some form of "zero hours contracts" and "sharing economy" stuff - neither of which is a good way to live) on the other.

but there's still a need for managers, office admins, IT, etc. how has the economy shifted? manufacturing has had its slow and steady decline, but what else has changed?

Aren't the jobs you mention salary-based? I don't know the conditions in the US, but it would seem odd to me if managers and office admins were paid by the hour. 

[Martinus]

Incidentally, I think the primary reason for the destruction of the wage class is the total shift in the economy, in a way where the middle level jobs are simply becoming obsolete and disappearing from the market, leaving only either high paying highly skilled creative professional jobs on one end and low paying service jobs (mainly operating some form of "zero hours contracts" and "sharing economy" stuff - neither of which is a good way to live) on the other.

but there's still a need for managers, office admins, IT, etc. how has the economy shifted? manufacturing has had its slow and steady decline, but what else has changed?

When I was a kid, and went to a bank, I saw a huge number of teller counters.  This one did time deposits, that one did foreign exchange, the one over there did deposits and cash withdrawals, yet another one did account opening, etc.  Armies of tellers staffed them.  Now, most people use the ATM machines and online banking.  The bank tellers don't call themselves tellers anymore.  They are licenced wealth managers responsible to sell you life insurance products and mutual funds.

30 years ago when I went to a car park, they needed two people at the entrance.  One handed out the parking tickets.  The other took the cash and the tickets back.  Very soon they replaced these with machines.  Drivers would pay at a cashier's office.  So two clerks became one cashier.  Now most carparks use RFID electronic money that eliminated the need for the cashier.  A few IT people and mechanics could support many carparks. 

Anybody hardworking enough can do repetitive tasks like counting cash and handing out parking tickets.  It is just a lot harder if the bar is raised and people need to learn how insurance policies are structured, and how to program RFID electronic money IT systems.

This is pretty much spot on, Mono.

One thing that struck me when I went to Athens in June was how, when you entered the Acropolis, there were three people there handling tickets (one sold you the ticket, the other one assisted the first person, and the third person, standing a few yards away, tore it as you entered through the gate). I immediately thought that no wonder their economy is in shambles, given that they employ 3 people for something that could have been handled by a machine.

[Martinus]

unskilled immigrants from not-mexico haven't flooded the country for probably sixty+ years. it's expensive to get here if you don't live in mexico. so, I'm not sure whether old era immigration can be applied to what happened in the 1990s+. I don't think many post 90s era mexicans moved to the US expecting social mobility. they earned more from mcjobs than they did back home. then the crash hit and there were fewer low-level jobs, so word traveled back that america isn't a hotspot for a good job (mexican standards)

@mono: I thought there was some discussion between Minsky and others (Ide?) that automation hasn't actually reduced all too many jobs... at least so far. but I could be misremembering or I misunderstood that convo.

Do you have something against capitalising first letters of sentences?